Fans React To Phillies Adolis Garcia Deal | What's Next?

From WHYY, it is hitting season. Hey there, podcast pals. I'm John Stolnes from The Good Fight. You can follow me on X and Blue Sky at John Stolnes. Coming up, Phillies make a signing. So it's kind of an emergency podcast, but this is when we're gonna record normally anyway. So, eh, we'll take it wherever you want. But the Phillies sign Adalas Garcia, right-handed hitting, power hitting outfielder to a one-year, $10 million contract. The first big free agent signing from outside the organization. The Phillies have made this offseason. So we're gonna break it down here on the round table on this edition of the podcast. We'll also ask you some questions about what this means for the 26 outfield. Harrison Bader, Nick Castellanos, of course. What's the outfield gonna look like for next year? And then a couple other things the Phillies did. They signed a middling reliever. Is there another reliever coming? Where do things stand with JT Real Muto? And we'll take a quick look at what the Mets and Braves have done over the course of the last week since we spoke last. So some good stuff to get to here on this edition of Hittin' Season. And as I mentioned, on the round table here, Justin Clue and Liz Roescher joining me for a little dayside podcasting. We don't initially do it when the sun's up, but here we all are. Justin, of course, from Baseball Prospectus. He hosts podcasts over at our Hittin' Season Patreon, The Dirty Inning and Absolutely Hammered. Follow him on Blue Sky at Justin Clue. And he's also the author of the forthcoming book, Summer of the Cheap Wieners, which again, you can get pre-ordered now. It comes out in February, but it's a good thing to get people looking forward to at Christmas time. Justin, how you feeling, bud? One thing I didn't hear you mention was the historic leap the Phillies made back into the Louis Robert Jr.'s news cycle as well, having shown, quote, recent interest in the White Sox outfielder, according to Ken Rosenthal and Will Salmon. Yeah. But that's dead now, right? Not particularly thrilled. Yeah, but again, recent interest is news in December. They said he'd be a centerfield option if Justin Crawford isn't ready, which kind of digs into a bigger talking point, where nationally, the assumption is the Phillies have a centerfielder in Justin Crawford. But then any reading you do about him, about anybody that's scouted him, is like, yeah, he's probably not really a centerfielder right now. He's going to be stronger in the corners, given his shortcomings. And I was talking about this with somebody yesterday, and they were like, yeah, but isn't it just kind of time for him to get those reps at being better at centerfield in centerfield? So I guess the Robert, you know, news cycle stuff, which is ultimately nothing, kind of bled into that conversation, which I will now ask you, would you think the Phillies would be better off just having Crawford, you know, let's say he puts together a solid spring, just sticking him in center and being like, all right, the gaps and flaws in your game will work themselves out as you learn to play the position? Well, Liz Rocher, editor of Sabre's Baseball Research Journal, I will throw this to you first. What do you think? I don't, I think they, if Luis Robert is what, no, that's not who they side. If Adonis Garcia is who they're going with in right field, might as well just throw Justin Crawford out there. If that's what they're, if that's what they're thinking, you might as well. I mean, they, if they're just sort of punching isn't the right word, but sort of backing up and giving up on improving right field in any way. That was worse than a pun, really. It is actually. They'll typically lose fielding position on a pun unless it goes horribly wrong. Yeah, that's true. I do want to say, when you look up Adonis Garcia on the internet, the first thing that Google shows you is a photo of him in a ranger's uniform with the words, what happened? Question mark underneath it. Yeah, that's what you want. That's what you want. We're going to get into the, to the Garcia signing because you know, there are certainly, there are certainly, you know. Okay. So the answer just. There are certainly things. Things that can be said about it. Yes. To say. Things that can be said about this, which shall be said in moments. I wanted to answer your question though. I think the whole reason they signed Garcia is they kind of now have to put Justin Crawford in center field. I mean, there's no choice about it because you're not going to play Brent. You know, Brandon Marsh, he can hack it out there some, but it's not pretty out there with Brandon Marsh. Can Justin Crawford be any worse? I mean, I guess he could, but he's more athletic than Brandon Marsh. I think the tools are there with major league coach. Well, that's the thing we got to find out because here you cannot have Justin Crawford as your long-term left fielder. You just can't. He doesn't hit well enough. He's not a corner outfielder. So you got to figure out, you got to figure out how to make him a center fielder with major league coaching. Players can get better at different positions at the major league level. We've seen it in the infield with Alec Baum. We've seen it with Bryce Harper learning first base. You know, we have seen players get better at the major league level with major league coaching. And so I have no doubt that Justin Crawford will be taught about as well as a player can be taught in the majors. And so, yeah, I think that's the plan now. And we're going to kind of get into what the Garcia signing means for Harrison Bader and other center field options. But that's why I said, I don't think the Luis Robert Jr. Rumors once they signed Garcia, it sounds like the Phillies are just once again, checking in on Garcia, asking the White Sox, are you still asking for too much for him? The White Sox responded. Yes, we are still asking too much for Luis Robert Jr. And so the Phil said, Sayonara, we're going to go with the one year $10 million contract for Adoles Garcia and go with Justin Crawford in center. That's how I see it shaken out. I want to say that I think that, you know, obviously Crawford will be a huge topic of conversation and has been already. But I think those conversations are largely about his shortcomings, which we all know very, we're all very familiar with by now, the huge ground ball rate. He's got to start elevating the ball and he's not a great tracker of fly balls, even though he's got the speed to cover himself. And I think all this focus on these shortcomings about why he's not ready has kind of led to this, this presumption that he's like not a good player. And I think it's important to remember that he's actually a very, very good player and very good players know how to adjust and develop. And he has, there have been, yes, the things I just mentioned are things that have developed perhaps more slowly than the Phillies have wanted. But again, with the right tutelage and motivation, he is the kind of player that can make those changes. So this is a guy who can be a very valuable part of the Phillies short, you know, soon future. You know, I just want to get that on the record as well, because with all this focus on what he doesn't do right, it's important to know that, yeah, remember this guy's a top prospect for a reason. He's extremely good. Yeah, and he's been very good in the minors and he does something the Phillies don't do a lot of, which is make a lot of contact and get a lot of base hits and all that. And we'll see if- Contact with his speed is an extremely vital combination, considering the amount of guys that have come to this team alone who have elite speed and don't get on base. Right. So, I mean, we'll see how this all shakes out in spring training and when he's- when he presumably earns a starting job for the big league team. But for right now, we're going to focus in on Adoles Garcia, who, again, the Phillies' new right fielder, signed a one-year $10 million contract. When you factor in some of the luxury tax implications, I saw this reported on, I think it was MLB Trade Rumors, that he'll actually cost the Phillies just under $20 million this year, $19.5 million contract for one season in terms of actual cash money. Now, that's not so much when you think about the fact the Braves just signed Ha Sung Kim as a fourth outfielder to a $20 million contract. So, it's still- Everybody's doing this stuff for the record. I'm not going to go full on. I'm not announcing myself as pro this deal or anything. I'm just saying everybody's doing this kind of stuff. Mike Yastrzemski signed for a similar kind of contract as a fourth outfielder. So, this is a guy who you presume is going to start for you all season. And, of course, people are hoping, Dave Dombrowski is hoping, Phillies fans are hoping, that we see 2021 through 2023 Adoles Garcia, and not so much the guy we saw the last two years. Back in 23, he had his career year, 39 home runs. He hit .245 with a .328 on base and a .508 slugging percentage. He played plus defense in right field. He's one of the best outfielders in baseball. Won the American League Championship Series MVP. Had a huge October, big moments until the World Series where he got hurt in game one and didn't play the rest of the World Series, but the Rangers went on to win anyway. In 2024, the numbers took a big step backward. He had some, again, he was recovering, dealing with that injury, I think, late in the 23 season in the World Series. Hit .224 with a .284 on base and a .400 slugging percentage in 24. And last year, not a whole lot better, a .227 batting average with a .271 on base and a .394 slugging percentage. So, for a power hitter to have a slugging percentage under .400, that's not what you're looking for. His number's almost identical to Nick Castellanos' a season ago. Nick Castellanos was a .250 hitter, higher batting average, but similar on base, .294 on base, .400 slugging percentage. Each player had a weighted runs created of 90 last year, which means they were 10% below league average hitting in terms of offense. Garcia's OPS the last two years, .684 and .665. But from 21 to 23, he was one of the better offensive players in baseball. Hit 30-plus home runs twice. Came close in 2024 to hitting 30 home runs. Made two All-Star teams. So, again, Justin, this is the guy the Phillies are hoping that they get, is the guy that was so good in 2021, 2022, and especially 23, and not the guy we saw these last two years. I, for one, tend to put more weight on the two most recent seasons. And I also do have a little bit of a sour taste in my mouth from the one-year $10 million offer we gave to Whitmerryfield and the one-year $10 million offer we gave to Max Kepler a year ago. Both guys we're hoping to get on bounce-back seasons. Both guys who struggled throughout the season, the Phillies, they played with the Phillies. Dabrowski does not have the best track record with these types of players and contracts. Nope, not even a little bit. Uh, yeah. So, you know, this is another maybe pile guy. The Phillies are sifting through the maybe pile and the thing that stands out as the important decision here isn't so much, honestly, who you're taking from the pile, it's that you're shopping there in the first place. And I think that's what you're gonna get most of the, most of the frustration from this will come from that. Because as far as guys you could get from that pile, that's a very fun player. When he's playing well, Adolos Garcia is a very, very fun player to watch. He's a quintessential boomer bust hitter from that Rangers lineup that won the World Series. Basically full of hitters like that. He's making less contact than ever before and swinging yet more pitches outside the zone than ever before. But he's also hitting harder than most players in the league. His exit velocity is, you know, vast. You can easily break this down to shorthand like, well, they're paying a Nick Castellanos type outfielder, Max Kepler's money. And that gets like two frustrating examples of Phillies outfielders on the record and gives you a nice little clip to play on sports radio. And yes, like I said, this is a guy whose last two years are probably more indicative of the player he is than that 2023 season when he slugged 508, when he hit almost 40 home runs, when he knocked in over 100 RBIs, when he was in the All-Star game, when he won a Gold Glove, when he won a World Series, when he was the ALCS MVP. I don't think you can really look at that level and say, we should expect that from this guy coming into 2025. You are, of course, looking for some sort of middle ground between these sort of low points he's hit the last two years and that highest of high points he had a couple of years ago. But playing in this pool means you take what you can get. If you've made the decision to be a maybe pile, like use that as the solution for this, which the Phillies clearly have, and you use, you know, the definition of the difference between like a maybe pile and like a sure thing free agent is the frequency of success and that good players get better deals because they're successful more frequently. Well, then we all know that Adoles Garcia, when he's successful, it's just going to be less frequent than a guy than if you went for like Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker, presumption, presuming, like that's just going to be the case. So, you know, with that expectation going in, you kind of know this is a guy who's going to hit 210, 220 and chase all the pitches Nick Castellanos was chasing most of the time. However, you also get probably like four to six weeks of him being the best hitter in baseball. Maybe just the best slugger, but like he goes on an absolute tear and maybe they're not consecutive weeks, but like throughout the season, you get that performance. You get those like dramatic walk-offs that he's very good at stepping into, you know, two, three, four times across the season, maybe more, who knows? He is that kind of player. And I think the most important part of this when comparing to who he's replacing is that you get something defensively. Yeah. I know you're rattling through the stats there, but the main one you're seeing cited across the board is that negative 11 defensive runs saved for Nick Castellanos turning into plus 16 defensive runs saved from Adoles Garcia. That's a huge difference, even from a guy hitting 220 all season. So while I'm not excited to see another bounce back candidate, we got to cross our fingers and hope bounces back when the Phillies are kind of like 0 for 4 or 5 on this in recent years, it does kind of bum you out. You know, as far as guys they could have taken from this pile, Adoles Garcia, go watch a highlight reel from even this past year, but also like 2023. He is a very fun and he can be a very productive hitter. He's just got a lot of the same problems as the guy they're getting rid of. So you're going to see those on display a lot too. Yeah. And Liz, one of the things the Phillies really needed this off season was to find a cleanup hitter, right? That's why we were so focused on a right-handed hitting player here. And I was a little disappointed that it doesn't seem as though there's going to be a creative trade in the mix here where maybe you bring in a right-handed hitting infielder who you trade boom, you bring in an infielder, you figure out outfield that way. Maybe that's how you get your cleanup guy. It doesn't feel like that's happening at this point. We don't know for sure, but it feels like the solution here is to find the best right-handed hitting outfielder you can afford. And Garcia is that guy. Harrison Bader is the only right-handed hitting outfielder who was probably better than Adoles Garcia here. So they just kind of went with that pool. It seems as though they knew financially, and in terms of lineup construction, getting a left-hander like Bellinger or Kyle Tucker wouldn't really fit the bill. It doesn't sound like there was any desire or ability to trade Alec Bowman, sign Eugenio Suarez. It doesn't seem like that was in the plans or they liked that idea or whatever it might've been. So here's what they did. And it does feel kind of like you're just swapping out Castellanos for a very similar type hitter and getting a massive upgrade on defense here. I don't know. What's your reaction to this? Are you disappointed? Is it better than you think? What are your hopes on an improvement? I was really hoping to look a little bit further into Garcia's numbers and see something positive over the last couple of seasons. Because I know that the Rangers as a whole have experienced a major power outage at their home stadium. And it hasn't been since they moved there. They were there for, I think, at least a year or two before this started. The last couple of years just been like a spigot's been turned off and the Rangers have had trouble doing anything. It's why they've had issues repeating their success from their World Series year. So I was looking into his numbers and thinking maybe he's better away. Maybe he's better when he's not at. No, he's not. He is the same. Almost exactly the same. At 20-25, home and away. He hit 20-25 at home and like 2-25 at home and 2-27 away. With nine home runs at home and 10 away. There's no difference there. So that was frustrating because I'm looking for just... The silver lining I have to remind myself is the defense. And I have to remind myself how frustrating it was for half of the game to watch Nick Cassianos out there and just pray that nothing came his way. And wondering, hey, do you think Nick Cassianos could play first base and we could get Bryce Harper, a real right fielder, back out there? No. So I am disappointed for the most part in this. You know, Dave Dabrowski came here with a reputation for making creative trades for using prospects well. And I can't tell if it's a reflection of him or of the Phillies system that he's made a couple of interesting trades. Some really good trades. Lizardo and... Was RealMuto him? No, that was not him. That was Matt Klintec. Thank you. I don't want to give him credit for something he didn't do. But he had that reputation and there have been a couple of good trades like Johan Duran. Lizardo last offseason was a great play too. Lizardo was a trade? Yeah. Duran and Lizardo, yeah. Yeah, those are good trades that he made. But I, looking at his time here, I expected a little bit more. You know? And I wonder, do the Phillies just seriously not have any bullets in that particular weapon? Or what is it? Has Zubrowski lost a little bit of his trade talent? Or is the market itself really terrible? Or are the Phillies players just not really worth trading unless you're sending a bundle of them? I mean, I don't want to say... You used the word creative and that's the word I wrote down too. I don't want to sit here and say this deal wasn't creative enough. It didn't have as many twists in it for me. But I think the more important note, piggybacking off Liz's comment, is that for this particular issue, this particular position, like in the outfield, the Phillies seem pretty rigid about this being the way to handle this. Like, look, I'm sure they've looked into and checked in on things and done all that. And as John said, Matt Gelb noted, the six top free agent outfielders, Harrison Bader, is the only right-handed hitter among them. So the Phillies just decided to go this route. And you're sort of, you're locked in a bit. You know, there's not a lot of creativity here, especially, like, Bader turned down his, I believe it was a qualifying offer, $10 million qualifying offer. That's the amount of money the Phillies want to give this guy for the place, this job. Just so people don't yell at us, it wasn't a qualifying offer. It was the mutual option because they couldn't give him a qualifying offer because he was traded mid-season. But he had like a player option of like, you know, $12 million or something like that. And he turned it down because he knew I can get a three-year deal this offseason. And that's kind of what it looks like he's going to get. And thank you. Thank you for agreeing with me that it was a qualifying offer just so you could correct me afterwards and I would look more wrong. I had to think about it for a second. I was like, no, that's not right. Thank you. I wasn't, it wasn't a sabotage of Justin's glue. It's a great, great. It's put me on a poster. That was fantastic. That's humiliating. I hope my family's listening. Thanks, everybody. That'll be the title of this episode. Yeah, my point is the Phillies love giving a guy $10 million to bounce back in their outfield. So far it hasn't worked. And it seems to be the only way they want to be able, they want to handle this problems. You mentioned a creative trade for an infielder who provides that same level of offense they're looking for. Yeah. I mean, part of it is what's available. I'm totally giving you that, but yeah, there has not been, and I'm not saying it's, it's necessarily an evil thing or a really good thing, but there has not been a lot of creativity in how to handle the outfield issues with the Philadelphia Phillies under Dombrowski. And a lot of his biggest deals have just been one to one. You know, the ones we're talking about, where he's just like, hey, you get in here. $10 million. There you go. And then it's like Trey Turner. Yep. Put your signature here. You know, you're good. You know, just stuff like that. Bring back Schwarber. Great. That's a problem. That's an easy one. You know, again, here's where you sign. I feel like this particular area, they have, they have not, they've not really done a lot of brainstorming on how to solve it. It's really just come down to, let's get, let's hope, let's hope this guy's Yeah, last year, they sort of stumbled into a creative solution to their outfield problem. They had, they had four players splitting time in right field and left field. And they had, they, by the end of the season, they had a solid center fielder. Like that was to me, interesting and creative because they managed to make it work with the addition of one player who changed sort of everything. But that's like as creative as they've been. And I don't even think that, like that rates like a, it doesn't certainly break the creativity scale because that's just platooning. Yeah, it's, it's not, it is, it's just platooning. And that's, that's what it comes to. He had Kepler and Castellanos sitting right in front. I was like, okay, well, let's split them up. And, you know, you had Marsh and you had Weston Wilson. Okay, let's split them up. And Bader was the anchor. And so once they finally started playing Bader every day, remember they didn't do that initially. It took about a week and a half for them to start playing Bader every day. And then they realized, okay, this is kind of how this is going to work here. But, you know, I guess if you're asking me, was signing Adoles Garcia to a one year, $10 million offer better than trading for Luis Robert Jr. Who's going to make $20 million and you have to give up players. I think I'd probably rather do this. Rather sign Adoles Garcia. If that's, if that's my option. And the other thing too, is there's not a lot of really creative trades happening in major league baseball. Most front offices are really protective of their prospects. And I want the Phillies to be a little bit less protective of their prospects, but I'm also not enamored with most of the Phillies prospects. And if I'm not overly enamored with the ones outside the top three, I'm willing to guess most baseball executives who know a whole lot more about who these guys are than I do are less than enthused about what the Phillies have to offer. It's a very mid to lower mid farm system. And it's, that's one of the things and we can get into this, maybe as the pro, as the off season goes along here, because there really just hasn't been a whole lot of improvement in what the Phillies farm system is producing, churning out, especially in terms of position players. You know, it just seems like for years, we've been hearing like we've got all this tantalizing talent in the low minors, and it never really blossoms into anything in the upper minors, except for, again, Aiden Miller, who is a first round pick. He kind of has to hit for you. Justin Crawford, another first round pick. Andrew Painter, another first round pick. It would really do this team well to develop some quality players from international signings or lower down in other rounds. And they've traded away some of those guys, right? Eduardo Tait will see what he is in Minnesota. You know, went and getting Johan Duran. Starling Cava will see what he is with the Marlins from the Jesus Lizardo trade. So they do a little bit of it. They've done some of it, but it's also clear, and I don't disagree with this philosophy either, that they didn't want to trade Andrew Painter or Aiden Miller this off season. And I 100% agree with that. I would not have moved either one of those guys for a Cattell Marte or anything like that. I want the Phillies to be creative, but I want them to be creative with stuff that's not that great. And I think that's probably where the rubber is meeting the road right now with Dave Dombrowski. Like, guys, I don't have, you mean, I'm trying to make a gourmet meal from Aldi groceries, you know, like, what do you want me to do? All right, well, let's not let's not attack Aldi. I love Aldi. We shop there every week. No offense to Aldi. Aldi sponsorship feels more than welcome. Yeah, go ahead. I can get a wheel of this show brought to you by Aldi markets. Yeah, I got to think of a catchphrase now. We've got Aldi's savings. Why have they not used that? I feel like they're missing an important voice here. Just this is why you do what you do, Justin. Right now. All right. Are we good? We get back to the back to back to the program. Yes. Commercial brainstorming anymore. All right now. So the field is outfield now. Oh, Justin, do you want to go ahead? Yeah, you're going to. I mean, I'll just I'll just say I think the general reaction here to all these great deals. Sorry. No, the general reaction here to the Adolis, you know, he has all the letters of Aldi. It's close. It is. Yeah, Adolis and Aldi. I'm going to call him Aldi Garcia at some point today. Now, yeah. You know what? That's a great nickname. In that because he was a bargain. Oh, my God. He's the Aldi of outfielders. You can go to Trader Joe's and get Kyle Tucker or Wegmans and pick up a Cody Bellinger. But the Phillies are a blue collar team and we shop a little more reasonably, a little more affordably, a little more. Only only ESPN, not wild about the trade, MLB pretty into it. But then again, I think Harold Reynolds may have been hearing Adolis Garcia's name for the first time. It's entirely possible. So, yeah, I lost the board. What does this mean for Nick Castellanos? Could he could he be? The the the face on Harold Reynolds when he was, like, bringing up like and no one thought at this point the Phillies already have a right fielder. And you're like, yeah, you just you want to like just do a quick Google, figure out what's going on there. No, no, it's important. You're on television. It's fine. So my point being, this is just this is ultimately well, those of us hoping for some sort of magical creative deal to bring the Phillies a right handed power bat who plays pretty good defense and is OK, like a good locker room presence. You know, that deal never materialized. The money was never going to be spent on the biggest names you saw with the team bringing back Kyle Schwarber. And honestly, what happens specifically with Nick Castellanos now, whether he gets, you know, they find a trade partner somehow who's who's willing to pay some of his salary or they just wind up cutting him. That's going to determine probably if they trade one of these relievers to get what they don't get from Nick Castellanos. So there's a lot of chain reactions that will spill out of this. Ultimately, I think it's a very normal deal that the Phillies have not had a lot of success with in the recent past. And that's what you're going to see the reactions to in the weeks to come. So it would appear the Phillies outfield is set. It looks like it's going to be Brandon Marsh and either Otto Kemp or Weston Wilson in a platoon in left field. The way they've been talking up Otto Kemp this offseason, it makes you feel like they really like him handed option out there. This whole chain make a big change plot point just completely disappeared by the before the end before Christmas. It was no longer going to be a whole day. I said this on absolutely every night. I think this is true. We should all remember this. This 2026 season will be a nonstop parallel narrative battle between the Phillies and Mets, and the Mets will be framed as the team that blew it up and started over and were bold and innovative in their thinking. And the Phillies ran it back with largely the same group and each of their successes or failures are going to determine whether that approach is right or wrong. You're going to be hearing it all season long. I guarantee it. That's that's that's right. And it does look like the Phillies, you know, they're going to talk about like, well, the outfield is totally different. You're going to hear it here a lot about 2012 as well with the Phillies with like, well, they stuck. They doubled down on their core and it led to a playoff era. You're going to hear a lot of that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So Martian Kemp in left field, Justin Crawford in center field and Adalas Garcia in right field. It's it'll be an open quite really, it's all going to hinge on. I mean, there's just two big one big unknown in Justin Crawford and what he's going to provide in center field. I mean, you hate to put that much pressure on the number nine hitter in your lineup. But, you know, that's a lot of we saw how important Harrison Bader's addition was to the outfield last year. I don't anticipate Crawford having that kind of an offensive impact here in his rookie season, hitting in the nine hole. And then so you prospects with something to prove, love having a ton of pressure piled on top of it. That's going to that's going to do wonders for him. I'm sure Phillies actually not improve at all. Because now I'm like, we've got Justin Crawford who doesn't do anything yet. We don't know in center field. We have worries. And then they added someone better, but they've already taken away Harrison Bader. And so it's does it feel at the moment for me, not knowing what Justin Crawford's got out there. It feels a little bit like kind of a straight flip. No, I agree. Now they've got a big deficit in center field, and that's the player problem for the year. But the difference here is the deficit is a has a potential to become better. So you do have the potential to wind up in a better place. You just don't know exactly what you have, where the Phillies have been playing with a lot of players where you kind of you know what you have. You know, we're saying Marsh is starting in left. You don't have to ask questions about Marsh unless he creates new questions. You know, he can't hit lefties, but, you know, he'll give you a good defense. And, you know, maybe he goes on a tear like at the end of 2025. These are the guys, you know, you're going to have to see is Garcia going to bounce back? Is Crawford going to become a center fielder? The potential is there, I would say at the very least. And that is the difference. Very true. Yeah, there is an upper percentile chance that Garcia becomes a 30 home run hitter again. And Crawford's a three win player in center field. And you're feeling much better about things. But if you're asking me what the more likely scenario is, it's that Garcia has a season very similar to his last two, that Crawford is kind of up and down as a rookie in the number nine hole that he's kind of that his defense is a little bit up and down and that you're looking at an outfield where you're just not getting a whole lot of power production out of left field. I mean, you know, Marsh and Kemp aren't going to combine for what, 15 home runs maybe next year? Philly said 40, 45. Philly said 40 or 45. Because I can't betting for Kemp hitting 43 of them. Yeah, just a machine out there and left. And that's that's the that's what we're going with. Apparently, he's just been doing pushups since the season ended, like literally nonstop, nonstop. If Crawford hit you five this year, I think I'll be I'll be surprised just because, you know, I mean, I'm serious. Like, I'm not saying that as a as a mean thing. Like, he's just he's not he doesn't hit for much power and he's gonna be facing major league hitting for the first time. So, I mean, I don't I'm not anticipating a lot of home runs from center field. And then profile, it's going to come down to Garcia. You know, Kenny, Kenny do more than Castellanos did. If he does, then, you know, maybe the outfield is passable as long as everyone else on the roster is playing up to their capabilities. And that's where a lot of this is going to come down to as well. But that's the point, like where they are running it back for the most part. And it's a 96 win team. You can understand why the Mets weren't. They finished 13 games behind the Phillies. So they have more incentive not to run it back than the Phillies do. And I don't know how creative the Phillies tried to get or wanted to get. But this is what they've done. And, you know, again, if they move a left-handed reliever for something else, maybe that changes the mix a little bit. I think they still are in the market for another reliever. I think they need to get a right-handed reliever. And so there's, you know, there are and JT Realmuto has is still not resigned. And I think we all agree that, you know, Realmuto is coming back. I mean, does anybody at this point think I mean, it is going on a little bit longer than I would have expected. But do either of you guys think there's a chance Castellanos does not? I mean, Realmuto does not come back. No, I am not expecting there to be a chance that doesn't come back. I don't think any of the things that would be alternatives to that that I would view as even just like interesting aren't really plausible, aren't really things the Phillies would seek to do afterwards. I think the alternative would wind up just being some rando stopgap guy because they probably haven't planned that hard because they probably just assume they're going to get him back. And I think that's the safe assumption. I will also say if Justin Crawford's in the opening day lineup and he like hits a ground ball that goes like over first base into the corner or third base. I just I hope he does that because that's his like specialty and that buys him an extra month of goodwill. If it only if it happens on opening day, people will will be like, OK. And then he gets an extra month of people not, you know, going full bore complaining about him. He has some superpowers. There's no doubt about it. He does. And I'm sure we'll see him pretty early. Really hope we get to see it. This is also mean do you guys are you guys in agreement that Harrison Bader is not coming back? Now, at this point, this pretty much eliminates the possibility of him coming back. Yeah, I would say so. I think so, in that he's Bader. He just stretched himself into that tier of player the Phillies don't seem very anxious to want to pay for. I feel like he's just too expensive at this point. Liz, do you disagree? My answer is no because I'm in denial. OK, so it's an Yeah, like I know he's not coming back, but I just love him. And I thought he was perfect for this team. And yeah, he costs a little bit more, but like I don't I don't I don't get it. Like, I understand Justin Crawford and all that, but Bader was so he fit in so perfectly and it won't be exactly the same mix of players. But I can't imagine things not improving after Nick Castellanos is gone. You know, the people would feel a lot better. I mean, I know it's it's more than nothing. It's not just a small thing, but signing Bader would make I think people feel really good about the Phillies outfield as opposed to boring or disinterested they feel now. I feel like suddenly all the Garcia is like you're saying, John, not zero chance to get 30 home runs out of your right field spot with better defense. And then you got Crawford who like, you know, you can feel safe about with Bader around. But then it's like, what happens next then? So Crawford in the corner long term, so you're dealing Marsh, you know, so it creates more questions, right? That's exactly right. Like you'd have a glut of outfielders, then you probably have to move one or you make Crawford a fourth outfielder and you play him in center field some days against right hand. But you kind of want him if he's going to play, he needs to play regularly. So then you probably need to find someplace else to move Brandon Marsh. And, you know, they do have some other in-house options to Gabriel Rincones. They like a lot as a left-handed option there. Maybe he gets a start, you know, against a right hander and right field every once in a while. If he makes the roster, you got Johan Rojas is still going to be hanging around, which I'll tell you what, if you've got Justin Crawford every day in center field, having Johan Rojas on the major league roster isn't the worst idea in the world from a defensive standpoint from the right-hand side of the plate. Let's bring them all back. Yeah, let's just get Nick Maytad in here. Let's pile them up. Yeah, everybody. Bring them all back. Gene Segura. I would love Gene Segura on this team. Yes, bring it all. Bring them all back. Weston Wilson. Pedro Leon is on the 40-man roster. He might get a look in spring training and Brian de la Cruz. They signed to a minor league deal. He was having a great Dominican winter league as well. I mean, these are some of the other names that are in-house. That's why it kind of doesn't feel like they're going to spend three years and like 45 million dollars on Harrison Bader at this point, but we will see. All right. I hate it. I hate it so much. The Phillies also this the Phillies also this week signed a reliever Bryce Wilson to a minor league deal. He's 28 in December. He's been a starter and a reliever in his career. It kind of feels like a Spencer Turnbull type of acquisition here. He's been pretty awful over the last couple of years. He was at a 6-6-5 ERA last season in 47 and a third innings, which is not great. I'm just going to throw that number out there. It's not great. Wait, this was my favorite part of this signing is when it was reported. They were like, it's unclear if the 28 year old is on a minor or major league deal or if he will be a starter or reliever. The Phillies signed a guy. They might not even know his last name. They're like, get in here. You're going to pitch for the Phillies, maybe. Doesn't matter. I didn't ask what your position was. You said, I'm a ball thrower. And so we said, we need those. Just saw him holding a baseball down on the sidewalk outside Citizens Bank Park. You're like, hey, you get in here. We need ball throwers. Sixteen point six percent strikeout rate. Invincible, only it makes less. You there, Bryce. What day is it today? Why, it's opening day. Go down to the store and buy the biggest mitt you can find. The water's big as me, sir. That's the one. I like how we brought it into the Christmas season. We're doing this for opening day. We're writing an opening day Christmas carol radio play. We're going to get our friends to act in it. That's what we're doing. It's Pentecost all over again. I mean, look, Bryce Wilson is Bryce Wilson. He's a 28 year old right hander who was available. And you know what? When Dave Dabrowski kind of like hinted at the quality of pitchers who could play starting roles on the Phillies, that they were going to collect this offseason. This is about the type of guy he kind of prepared you to get. Like John said, he had a Joe Ross, Spencer Turnbull type. Not a lot of strikeouts, not a lot of walks. And he was really bad in 2025. He went unclaimed on waivers twice. So yeah, this is another this is another backup plan. So get ready to see Bryce Wilson if Andrew Painter doesn't thrill you in spring training. Other than that, you know, we're shopping in Vargastown for starting pitching help. Goody. So it's unclear if the Phillies will go out and get themselves one of the few remaining right handed relievers that missed some bats. There's a couple of guys still out there. Luke Weaver, who was who was very good in 2024, was off to a great start last year before he got a hamstring injury and then had a 5-3-1 ERA over his last 40 appearances. There's a lot of thought that he was really affected by the injury, but there's a possibility Luke Weaver, he'll probably get overpaid based on what the Phillies are probably looking to do here. A lot of people love Pete Fairbanks. Pete Fairbanks, again, a great season in 2024. What's that? Was he hurt part of 24? Because I'm a big, I'm a Pete Fairbanks guy, but I feel like he got, he spent part of the season on the shelf. Yeah, yeah, he said. So last year he did not. Last year he was healthy, put together a career high. Wrong again. You're welcome, family. And 27 saves. However, since 24, his strikeout rate has slipped. He put together his first injured list free season since 2020, a season ago. So it was the first time he'd stayed healthy. His velocity is a 97 mile an hour guy. 283 era. Not only was he not injured, it was the first time he stayed actually healthy. Bullseye. If you're remembering, you're remembering a lot of injuries is is what I'm saying. So it just just wasn't last year. That's all right. Well, they also didn't. They all they assigned a young yell who read. He's 23 years old. He's a right handed pitcher. You know, you might hear his name again in the next three years, but that was a trade from the Rays. Remember, any guy you get from the Rays has the potential to be in a good way. And they traded him for a guy. I believe they had sent out to the Arizona Fall League and Tommy McCollum. But I bring his name up because he is so their type and that he is a strikeout machine with command problems. So they got a hard, a hard thrower who may not know where it's going. But you know what? The Phillies can fix them. Well, I'll say this. I believe Caleb Cottom can do more than Kevin Long at this point in terms of fixing folks. Oh, I don't doubt it can happen. They have several success stories. Yeah, but you know, there's it's you can't you can't make a square circle. So let's we'll figure out we can't just cut off the corners. Is this a cut off? Done. Just cut some corners, John. And then you have exactly what you want. What are you talking? What's a hexagon? I don't know what you're talking about. That's right. The other name. How about Sir Anthony Dominguez returning to Philadelphia? Huh? Get out, bring them all back. He pitched a career high 62 and two thirds innings last year with a 3.16 ERA, struck out more than 30% of batters and also walked nearly 14% of hitters. I stopped listening after career high. And I believe you might be forgetting the most important thing that he ended the Blue Jays season in the World Series. Yeah, yeah, it was him. He did it. That's the Sir Anthony Dominguez experience. He'll get you there. But you know, he also might get you thrown out. That's just kind of, that's kind of how the Sir Anthony Dominguez experience goes. But those are just, if you're looking for free agent impact relievers, they're kind of all gone now. Except for Pete Fairbanks. And again, the velocity is down a little bit with him. But it doesn't feel like to me the Phillies are in the market. You're not hearing them connected with any kind of free agent relievers. Maybe they trade a lefty, one of their lefty ones for a right-handed one of similar skill. You know, I don't know. It's out there. But one of the reasons why, and we're going to talk very quickly about the Braves and the Mets as we wrap up the podcast here, because they've been busy this week. The Braves did grab one of the high-impact right-handed relievers off the free agent market. And it's for a big deal. It's kind of the same kind of contract we're expecting Harrison Bader to get. A three-year $45 million deal for Robert Suarez. He, of course, is the pitcher that gave up the bedlam at the bank home run back in 2022. But it didn't ruin him, didn't crush his spirit or his soul. He has become one of the best right-handed late-inning relievers in baseball. And he is going to be the setup guy for Ryaciel Iglesias in Atlanta. So the Braves' late-inning bullpen, the eighth and ninth innings, are in good hands with Suarez and Iglesias. But that's a big contract for Robert Suarez. He can, you know, given how much the Phillies are talking about money and luxury tax, it's understandable. Well, not understandable, but that's the reason they didn't sign somebody like that. The Braves also signed 35-year-old Mike Yastrzemski to a two-year $23 million deal to be the team's fourth outfielder. That's a lot of money for a fourth outfielder, $11 million. He'll back up Acuna Michael Harris, the second and Jurickson Profar, who will be starting in the outfield. Had a pretty good season last year once he went to Kansas City. Started in San Francisco. Had been there since the start of his career and went to the Royals. Had nine home runs and 50 games for Kansas City. So it was very good for them at the end of the season. And the Braves also re-signed Ha Sung Kim to a one-year $20 million contract. It was very good for them when he came back off the injured list in September. Missed most of the year. Did finish one for 19, but he's been one of the better players in baseball from 2022 to 24 as an all-over-the-place kind of infielder. Liz, your thoughts on the Braves signing Suarez, Jastrzemski, Kim. They're not making a big splash out there, but they're adding around the edges and trying to solidify the bullpen. I mean, I don't like their bullpen now. It's good. And I'm not a fan of that when it comes to Braves. Yeah, I mean, I feel like the Braves might have a little bit more to do than people think. I know a lot of their players were injured last year and I'm not convinced that everyone's going to bounce back exactly the way they were because the last time they had a bad year, that didn't happen as well. They had another bad year right after it. So it makes me feel better personally to think that they're making some decent additions, but they're still going to be missing some big pieces and they've got injury-prone players. It's just easier for me to think that way instead of realizing that the Phillies will have two actual real competitors in the NLEs next year. We have been saying this for years. Wow, what if all three teams were competitive at once and it hasn't yet happened, I don't think. But this year it might. 22 was the last time, right? Imagine being wrong on a podcast. I know. Imagine being wrong talking about baseball or the Phillies or really anything. I'm never wrong. I don't know what that's like. It's a shame. Yeah, Justin, what are your thoughts on what the Braves are doing so far? Gross! Yeah, I mean, you know, they need a shortstop, starting pitcher. I mean, I'm telling you, this stuff is just this nibbling around the edges, potentially bigger impact guys is cute and all. The real Brave story is going to be when they sign Ranger Suarez and then everybody has an emotional reaction to that. It's coming. I think he's one of the Orioles. Hopefully it's the Orioles. If you let yourself go too cynical, it could just as easily be the Braves. They're looking for the same guy. So just, you know, keep your Braves sadness on reserve until that happens. And real quick, the Mets... The Orioles love a Phillies pass off. Sorry, I'm just saying the Orioles love a Phillies pass off. There's nothing the Orioles love more than 20-22 Phillies. They just, they love more than we do on this podcast. Mike Elias is the least creative executive in baseball. 100%, he sucks. Hey, it was his offer that got the Phillies Kyle Schwarber. So yeah, that's right. Maybe we owe Mike Elias a thank you, Liz. He also got Pete Alonzo out of the National League East. He did. We'll take that. And so the Mets, talking about the Mets. Since we last spoke, Pete Alonzo leaves New York for... We said thank you, Justin. We said thank you. For those of you listening to the podcast, you'll have to check out the YouTube as well there during this part of it. It got a little weird. I looked up at the camera and then I looked down. I was like, wait a minute. Justin's getting closer to the camera. That was very unsettling. Oh, his nose looks weird at that distance. It does. Catch the YouTube on the WHYY YouTube channel post. We have to give people a reason. If you're not watching this podcast, this is the week to start, friends. Yeah. There's a visual component that you're missing out on. That you're missing out on. Listening with only your ears. Look, we still want those audio downloads, you know? So keep smashing that download on the iPhone and on the Spotify. But, you know, also YouTube's a good place to be. All right, the Mets. They are blowing up the core, as we mentioned a little bit earlier in the podcast. They did not sign Pete Alonzo. He goes to the Orioles. Replacing him with the guy that I wanted the Phillies to get on a much cheaper deal. Jorge Polanco to a two-year $40 million contract. He's going to replace Alonzo at first base. I thought maybe the Phillies could get Polanco for like $13 million a year. He's going to get $20 million a year. $10 million or nothing. It's the only thing we give players around here. That's the last I want to hear about it. We only have $10 million bills. That's all we've got. So Polanco for $40 million over two years. They also agreed to a minor league deal with Phillies legend Christian Poche. I think where the Mets are kind of lying in the weeds right now is the trade market. And they're linked to Mason Miller with the San Diego Padres to replace Edwin Diaz. They were talking about letting this core go. And by the way, every time the Mets rebuild and blow up their core, they should have to replace the Apple at Citi Field with just a core of the Apple. And like, that's what rises up every time there's a home run and a rebuild season. Anyway, I don't think this is a rebuild. I honestly think like, yeah, the Mets were like, you know what? We're not getting what we want from these guys and we have ways to move them. And they found some very productive ways to either let guys go or trade them. And that's setting the table for some bigger moves, which on baseball tonight, they were saying the Mets are plotting for a Tarek Scouble trade. And, or, so that's potentially in addition to- Or maybe not, yeah. A Fernando Tatis Jr. deal as well. So look out! That Mets core may not be rebuilt for very long. Trying to, go ahead, Liz. Well, I'm just gonna say I don't like any of that. That's tough, take it back. But one of the things that I think we've been seeing with the Mets is, David Stearns is trying to address like clubhouse stuff. I don't know if bringing Fernando Tatis Jr. into the clubhouse with Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto is exactly the mix you want. What was Soto and Tatis' relationship in San Diego? I don't really recall anything, but that doesn't mean there was nothing. I don't, but there's been friction between Lindor and Soto. By all reports. And you bring Tatis in. I don't remember there being any friction between Tatis and Soto, but it's just three very, very strong personalities. Three alphas in a clubhouse like that. And whereas the Phillies have some alphas, but it seems like everybody kind of just kind of falls under the leadership of Kyle Schwarber and they all alpha in their own way. This does not seem like that in New York. So that would be a very interesting, on paper, my goodness, if the Mets were to do that, that would be a tremendous upgrade for them. I would want them to do it just to see how badly they could screw it up. I forget that the, yeah, don't forget, the Mets have a really toxic clubhouse and everybody's really mad at each other. They're trying to crawl out from under that hole too. So you're right. But I mean, I think in general, nothing's guaranteed and you never believe these deals of this size are going to happen by any kind of surprise. But end of the day, John, I'm kind of with you that the Mets, the Mets are clearly not done. There's a lot more they can do and they have the potential to do something really big. They have a potential to be a part of the biggest deal that happens in the future. I'm not saying they definitely will, but they have the capacity to do that and very few teams do. So just look out for the Mets because, you know, just the rumors about what they're planning are big. Yeah. They've got nothing to lose. Yep. That's the thing. The Mets have nothing to lose by blowing up. Except a playoff spot by the end of the season. Yeah. Lots of games. But, like, theoretically, by blowing up the core and just bringing new players in, they've got nothing to lose. And that's kind of the most dangerous place, you know, you could see a team being in because they could do anything. Right. When you come off a really disappointing season and you've got a lot of money, you're motivated to kind of be a little bit crazier. And so that might, given the fan reaction to the offseason so far, that's an interesting place for David Stearns and the Mets front office to be. But anyway, we're continuing to watch what the Braves and the Mets do here. We don't care about the Nationals or the Marlins because, you know, a lot of rumors about Nationals players. Nothing's come to fruition yet with McKenzie and C.J. Abrams. Saw that they were reluctant to move C.J. Abrams, but I hadn't even known they were open at all to moving him. Thought he was part of the next wave, but yeah, who knows what's going on down there. Didn't even know they were reluctant to do it, let alone reluctant. All right. Let's finish up with some final thoughts here. Liz, any final thoughts to wrap up? The Baseball Research Journal has officially been published. My very first issue is out in mailboxes. They should be getting mailboxes very, very soon. Yay! I would say Labor of Love, my very first one. I learned a whole lot. Learned a lot of things not to do and learned a lot of things that I should have been doing. So I'm looking forward to trying that again. The next edition will come out in, I believe, March or April 2026. If you'd like to contribute, please go to saber.org slash publications and you will be able to find all the guidelines for submitting a piece to the Baseball Research Journal. Please, please do. I've got several, there's several Philly's pieces in the hopper right now that might make it into the next issue. So keep them coming. All right. There you go, everybody. The Baseball Research Journal. Get yourself a copy, stuff the presses. Justin, final thoughts? I'll do three. The Dirty Innings Christmas episode will finally debut. That's been a casualty of the holiday schedule as Dirty Innings have dropped off. But we're putting together an episode based on a Christmas in July game. That should be a lot of fun. Moving on, the Rule 5 draft happened at the MLB Winter Meetings. Wanted to burn through this list real quick. The Philly's actually lost Griff McGarry to the Nationals. Speaking of teams that are obsessed with former Philly's, the Nationals are still at it, taking swipes at their ankles. And they grabbed Griff McGarry, who was once considered a group of three young pitching prospects who were going to be very impactful for the Philly's. Interesting to see where his narrative has led him. The Philly's also took Zach McCambly, a right-handed pitcher from the Marlins, 26 years old. He was moved to the bullpen due to, you guessed it, ongoing command problems. But he's got a 94 to 97 mile an hour heater. He doesn't miss bats. Throws a lot of cutters and sweepers, probably a middle reliever if he makes the roster. So nothing too exciting there. Though I also did read that the Philly's took a pitcher named Mike Vassell from the Mets, then traded him to the Rays, and then he wound up on the White Sox on waivers. So what a day tumbling down the MLB ladder for that young man. That's quite unfortunate. And thirdly, I wanted to talk about an article that appeared on the Philly's website just prior to the Adoles Garcia signing, which was talking about what are their outfield options in a post-Schwarber world? And this was written by Jason Foster on Philly's.com. Now I'm not calling out this article for being particularly bad or anything unexpected or crazy. It is just always very funny to me about how an MLB.com version of a blog or a post or a story is always a commercial of sorts. So you tell me what's missing from this list of outfield options available for the Philly's in a post-Kyle Schwarber signing world? Well, they could always re-sign Harrison Bader. You know, they know the obstacles there. They're kind of self-made, but he's available, and you could still go out there and re-sign him. Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, expensive, but hey, big upgrades cost big money, and they could give you the power you're missing from that position. Pull off a trade. Luis Robert Jr. is available, but hey, so is Steven Kwan, Jaron Duran. If you can elbow your way past the actively salivating Kansas City Royals who are obsessed with Jaron Duran, if you can get past them, you could bring any of those guys to Philadelphia. Hey, Justin Crawford. He got a top prospect who's an outfielder. Maybe he's just out there, and maybe he's the answer. Maybe you just, and if that doesn't work, you know what, you got Bryce Harper. He might just, maybe just stick him out in right field. Sign a first baseman to play. So of those six options, those are the six options the Philly's could do. That's it. And so the next day, what do they do? I guess what I'm pointing out is, I didn't see sift through the maybe pile until a satisfyingly $10 million bounce-back candidate emerges from your options. For some reason, they didn't include that, yet that was, I would say, the most likely outcome of anything. Yet instead, we got, yeah, move Bryce Harper to right field and then sign Carlos Santana to play first base, perhaps? Rhys Hoskins is available. Why not? Bring them all back. That's obviously written by someone. It's like asking me to write an article about the Brewers outfield. You know, like I could do some research on it and probably come up with a list, but it's not gonna be well-informed necessarily because I'm not engaged in the minutia. And people who follow the Philly's understand that writing an article talking about Kyle Tucker at this point, after Schwarber signed, still coming to the Philly's is just kind of, you know, silly to not to include Adalas Garcia or one of those other guys is, yeah, a little bit out there. All right, everybody, that's gonna do it for this edition of Hit and Season. Again, a reminder, everyone, that you can watch this fine show on your smart TV. Go to YouTube and subscribe to the WHYY YouTube channel. Every podcast this off-season will be over there. And of course, we are on the audio-only formats as well, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever it is you get your podcasts. Make sure that you subscribe, download the podcast, everything else. And if we did appear on your Spotify end-of-year list, I'd love to kind of, I'm always curious to see like, what other podcasts are people listening to when they listen to us? Screenshot that to us and send it on over to hitandseasonatbillypenn.com. We'd love to see it. And any other questions, comments, you have this off-season, we're gonna do a mailbag coming up here in the next week or two as well. So you can email any questions or thoughts about the Philly's off-season so far. Again, it's hitandseasonatbillypenn.com. Thanks everyone for tuning in. We'll talk to you next time right here on Hit and Season.