WINTER STORM UPDATE: First flakes from major winter storm just hours away

Hey everybody, I'm Walter Perez in the newsroom along with meteorologist Brittany Boyer with an action news update ahead of the incoming storm. Now before we get started, Brittany, if you guys have questions for Brittany, you can post them on our Facebook page, the 6abc Facebook page. When she's done with the forecast, we'll ask her the questions if you want to ask them. But in the meantime, there's a lot to talk about, Brittany. I know. I remember when we worked last weekend, I was already telling you. You were. Some of the models. I was hoping you were wrong, but here we go. I was hoping I was too. Yeah, we've got this massive storm. It's moving across the country and it's bringing a lot of problems. I want to start off first with the winter alerts because they span roughly 2000 miles. You can see them back into parts of Nevada. Also, as you work your way into Texas, it's not just winter storm concerns, but also ice concerns that they're dealing with down south. So you can see the storm that's going to be impacting us really coming together here across the middle of the country. I was doing some spot checking. There's already reports of around eight inches of snow throughout parts of Arkansas, also Missouri into Kansas, Oklahoma also dealing with that snow. And then the big problem is going to be that ice. There are some areas down south that are looking at the potential of upwards of an inch of ice. So what we look at here is the winter storm severity index. And you can see where the extreme threat is, is down into parts of Mississippi, also into Tennessee. But all of that red, those are major concerns with winter weather. They impact the parts of the deep south, Georgia, also into the Carolinas through the mid Atlantic region. We're going to be dealing with a lot of ice and disruptive snow in areas that typically don't see a lot of that wintry precipitation. And here at home, you can see our area painted in the orange, which is moderate risk. And then all of that red encompassing the Delaware Lehigh valleys up into the Poconos. That's where we are looking at a major threat here with winter precipitation, wintry precipitation. We do have a winter storm warning for the entire area. It goes into effect tonight, and it continues right into Monday afternoon. And you're going to hear us talking about how this is a winter storm and not a snow storm, because this is going to encompass sleet, also freezing rain. Looking at future tracker here, notice the temperatures that we plotted on. All areas are in the teens tonight, so that supports snowfall. And it is going to be snow from the very beginning for the entire region here. This is seven o'clock tomorrow morning. Maybe you're waking up. It's starting to snow very quickly, and it's piling up very quickly just because our temperatures are so low. You might hear us talk about sometimes how there's that fluff factor. Snowfall rates as this moves in tomorrow morning will be one to two inches per hour, so that will pile up very quickly. There's the curveball, though, with this storm. If you've been watching Action News at all this week, we've been talking about how there would be a warmer air mass moving in as the storm moves in here. And I know a lot of people have been asking, how's it going to stop snowing and change to sleet when temperatures are in the teens and 20s? That's the temperature that we have at the surface where we are. But as you go into the upper layers of the atmosphere, things are warming very quickly with this storm. So around 1 30 in the afternoon, you can see all of that purple. That is sleet. So think of those dip and dot pellets that they're going to start accumulating, and we'll watch as that line works its way farther to the north and west. It's really this warm air layer that has made such a challenge with this forecast, because it's all about at what time does that warmer air move in. Because once you start sleeting, you stop snowing, and that's where the accumulation with snowfall stops. So we have this paused at 7 o'clock tomorrow evening. You can see that purple nudging into parts of southern Berks County through central Lancaster County, really creeping its way into parts of upper Bucks, upper Montgomery County, and then see that little pink zone around the I-95 corridor. That's where we change from sleet to freezing rain. So we bring in an ice concern here at the shore. Eventually you flip over to all rain with temperatures at the surface well above freezing. Looking at the timing of when this moves on out of here, there could be a lingering flurry or snow shower very early Monday morning, but a lot of the models are now clearing things out of here. And notice by 8, 9 o'clock Monday morning, if you have work, give yourself plenty of time to dig out. There's not going to be any melting. Temperatures are in the teens and 20s. It is going to be brutal out there for cleanup on Monday. So you might be wondering, how much are you cleaning up? We have not changed our snowfall map since yesterday evening, so we're still looking at three to six inches of snow down into parts of southern Delaware, extreme southern New Jersey here into Cumberland County, Atlantic County, think the Jersey Shore. You see three to six inches of snow on the front end of the storm, and then you change over to sleep I think by late tomorrow morning, and then eventually you change over to plain old rain. Six to eight inches of snow for places like Toms River, New Jersey, Manahawken. Also as you work your way toward Millville, Salem, throughout parts of Kent County, Delaware there around Smyrna. And then the I-95 corridor, really the heart of our region. I'm going to zoom in here a little bit. Eight to ten inches of snow. Notice that this encompasses parts of Lancaster County, Chester County, Coatesville, Chester, Delaware County, Ben Salem, Trenton, New Jersey, and then the far northwestern suburbs. You see 10 to 14 inches of snow, again because you'll hold on to that snow longer than all of the areas to the south and east. So tomorrow is going to be a very difficult day if you have to do any travel. I think the worst period with snowfall will be first thing in the morning where you have those one to two inch per hour snowfall rates. But if look at your winter weather threats, it's not just going to be heavy snow, there's also the potential of that heavy sleet. And looking at some of the model guidance today, for anybody that's familiar with some of the computer models, the NAM model is trying to print out over two inches of sleet in our area. So you may have six inches of snow come down, two inches of sleet on top of that, and then you have the ice threat. So we are emphasizing the power outage potential just because some areas could see a glaze to a quarter of an inch of ice. And as if we haven't talked about enough, the wind will be picking up tomorrow out of the northeast, gusts up to about 30 miles per hour. So if we end up with a situation where we have ice on top of all of that, that's where we have the concern for some power outages. So just make sure you're really preparing. It's very difficult to kind of pinpoint where exactly that freezing rain zone is specifically going to be with the highest ice accretion. But right now we're thinking right along the I-95 corridor. And once you get to around a quarter of an inch of ice, that's where you have the threat of power outages, trees and branches coming down. And I mentioned the fact that, you know, there's not going to be much room for opportunity for melting. This is just a 10-day outlook here. Look at the temperatures. I mean, average now in Philly is 41. We are nowhere near that. And a lot of times, Walter, when you have a fresh snowpack on the ground, the models are a little overdone with temperatures. So that means that we very well could have some days next week where we're only in the teens. It's not just a problem during the days, but at night when you're dropping to the single digits, you have pipes that are freezing and just a lot of problems. So I'm going over the questions. It really boils down to two. Mainly, when is it going to start? Any other questions about road conditions? We'll begin with road conditions. Just stay off the roads. I mean, it's going to be bad. When you talk about this kind of freezing, and I've done so many stories over the years and talking to guys who plow and who spread the salt on the roadways, they say this is the kind of storm that's the most difficult because of the icing. And when the temperature reaches a certain degree, the salt doesn't do much. And so they're just really limited as far as what they can do. So the advice is just to stay off the roads, monitor the best you can. If you have to be on the roads, do what you have to do. But just be careful because they're going to have a difficult time getting all this cleared out in any decent amount of time. Yeah, especially when you're dealing with mixed precipitation. And the fact that it's going to stay so cold for so long. I know, I know. It's not a good combination and something that I always kind of share with people this time of the year. Whether you live in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, a lot of states have a 511 page and some of them have apps. And on that, you can look at the live cameras. I mean, there are people that do have to go to work tomorrow, so. Like us. Yeah, we'll be here, we'll safely be getting here. We'll be nearby the whole weekend. Yeah, just, you know, if you absolutely have to go out, look ahead of time, give yourself plenty of time. And, you know, the best advice I can give, if you don't have to be out tomorrow is a day to just stay put. And start time, one o'clock in the morning, two o'clock in the morning, something like that? Interesting you bring up start time. I think the snow develops before a lot of people wake up. The problem is at the onset, as the storm starts to arrive in our area, our dew points are actually below zero right now. So the air is really as dry as it possibly can get. It's going to take a little while for the atmosphere to saturate and for that snow to begin. So is that because of the temperature? Yes. So the dew points, the amount of moisture that we have in the air, think of the summertime when our dew points are in the 60s and 70s. It's really humid outside. Our dew points are below zero. So there is just so much dense, cold, dry air. And that keeps it from snowing. Yes. So we need the atmosphere to saturate a little bit. We'll start to see our dew points rise. This is all new to me. She was explaining this to me earlier, and I still don't get it. Because if it's too cold to snow, it just doesn't really register for the average person like me or average dope like me. So you're not a dope, Walter. I will say that's not true. So when we were looking at the timing with the future tracker here, I can go back and show that again just in case anybody missed it. This is just a model that we show you. And there are multiple models and all of these models update multiple times a day. So, yes, this is showing after midnight tonight, the snow will start spreading southwest to northeast here. I would not take this to the minute. A lot of times it takes a little while for the snow to begin. I mean, you can think of the last couple of storms. So I think by the time the sun comes up, we're dealing with snow. But, you know, it could be starting at two o'clock in the morning down in Dover, Delaware. For us in Philadelphia, it might take until four or five o'clock in the morning. So that's why we are going to have continuous live coverage tomorrow morning so people can check in with Karen and Peyton first thing to see how things are evolving. Okay, very good. Thank you, Brittany. We're all enlightened now because I didn't understand it before, but I think I understand it. Anyway, so once again, the snow emergency begins at 9 p.m. here in Philadelphia. Officials are urging people to stay off the roads. As we mentioned, crews across the region have been salting and getting the roads ready for the trucks to get ready to deploy. AAA says if you have to drive, you should slow your speed considerably and increase how close or how far away you are away from the car in front of you. Also, major travel restrictions will go into effect tomorrow morning. No commercial vehicles will be permitted on Pennsylvania's interstates, including 95, 76, the Turnpike and the extensions. Also, New Jersey is currently under a state of emergency that began at 5 p.m. The emergency applies to all 21 counties in the Garden State. Governor Mikey Sherrill also urging everyone to stay off the roads tomorrow so plow trucks can do their thing in a safely manner. An update a few hours ago, officials announced speed restrictions will begin at midnight tonight. Speed restrictions of 35 miles per hour will be placed on the New Jersey Turnpike, Garden State Parkway, Atlantic Sea Expressway, and all state and interstate highways. To be clear, personnel carrying food, fuel, and medical supplies are exempt, as are utility companies, public safety vehicles, and essential personnel. Governor Sherrill also announcing bus, light rail, and access link service is suspended all day tomorrow starting at 4 a.m. The commuter rail system will stop service at 2 p.m. At many locations, they're also bracing for the possibility of power outages this weekend. As Brittany mentioned, all of the more than 3,000 PECO employees, along with the company's contractors, are on standby this weekend. The utility company has spent the past week beefing up staffing and ensuring its vehicles are ready to respond in poor conditions. If you do lose power, PECO wants you to report the outage. You can do so online or by phone by calling or texting. Stay with Action News and 6abc.com for the very latest on the winter storm and much more. For now, I'm Walter Perez. She's Brittany Moyer. We'll see you on the air tonight at 11.