Inside the PLA Panic: Xi Jinping’s Legitimacy Crisis Explodes

Hello everyone, welcome to Lei's Real Talk. Alright, I must be honest with you, I've never been so nervous. The reason is I am shocked by my own analysis and conclusion, which I will share with you later. Alright, I'll tell you if I think the general, Zhang Youxia, is still alive or not. It's been a week since Beijing announced investigations into Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhengli, and now almost everyone watching China is asking the same question. Are these generals still alive? Let me put them on the screen. Okay, well, I must be honest with you, things don't look good. But rumors are everywhere, speculation is out of control, truth and falsehood are completely tangled together. Expert opinions clash with street level intuition. At this point, no one really knows what to believe and not to believe. As time drags on, the chances for Zhang Youxia to come out of this alive slip away. Let me give you my conclusion, he's more than likely gone. That conclusion did not come easy, because for the longest time I couldn't decide. But today I think we have enough information to make a conclusion, so stay with me as I offer you my analysis. But I have to build a case for you. On the surface, Xi Jinping looked very much in control. He hosted two heads of state last week, the British PM and the Finnish PM. Behind the scenes, however, it might be a completely different story. Official Chinese media, with the exception of the PLA Daily, has remained largely silent. But that silence hasn't calmed anything down. On the contrary, it has fueled an information war. Both Xi Jinping's camp and Zhang Youxia's supporters are using rumor networks and foreign media to push their narratives. The Wall Street Journal claimed that China's top general colluded with the CIA and sold nuclear secrets to the United States. But Singapore's pro-Beijing newspaper, Lianhezaobao, reported that China's defense ministry denied those allegations. I have already told you about this in my earlier live streams. At the same time, an open letter allegedly written by Zhang Youxia before his arrest began circulating online. Most experts do not believe Zhang wrote it himself. Still, the letter has been widely reported and amplified by Chinese language media and influencers outside China. Whether it's authentic or not, the impact has been enormous. Some say the author wasn't the general, but the content reflects some of his ideas. I don't think we should get caught up in the authenticity of the letter. The bottom line is, this letter has hit Xi Jinping's core political base like a nuclear bomb. Politically speaking, it's lethal. Okay, I'll come back to this letter later, but I want to lay out everything for you before I draw my conclusions. Now, regarding whether Zhang Youxia is alive or dead, one thing is beyond dispute. The first month of 2026 is the deadliest month in the history of the PLA. Behind the life and death mystery surrounding Beijing has officially announced the deaths of three other generals in less than two weeks. On top of that, rumors are circulating widely about the death of two more generals, and they are not just any generals. After walking through this, you will see why I say Zhang Youxia has died. I know the news is depressing. It depressed myself, to be honest with you. But let me begin by telling you another explosive rumor today. Okay, so according to online claims, the last remaining member of the Central Military Commission, aside from Xi Jinping himself, has died. Who is he? Oh, let me see. Zhang Shengming. The newly promoted second vice chairman of the CMC, Zhang Shengming, is rumored to have committed suicide at home, and this came out today. This has not been officially confirmed. But one thing is clear, Zhang Shengming has not appeared in public since Zhang Youxia was taken down. Zhang Shengming is a career political officer, not a military commander. He was formerly in charge of military discipline and inspection, and for weeks now, his name has appeared in multiple versions of the Zhang Youxia drama. First, the claim that he helped Xi Jinping and played a key role in Zhang Youxia's arrest. Then, we heard rumors that he has resigned. Now the latest version says he has ended his own life. There's another layer to the story. Zhang Shengming shares the same last name as Zhang Youxia. They're both Zhang. The Chinese character for Zhang contains the element of a bow. When people say, what's your last name? We say Zhang, and then which Zhang? Gong Chang Zhang, meaning it's the Zhang that has the bow. Now, Xi Jinping is famously superstitious and is widely believed to take seriously a Tang Dynasty prophecy, warning that a warrior with a bow would stage a coup through the back door of the palace. Xi Jinping may have taken down one warrior with a bow, but another Zhang is or was still sitting inside the CMC. As for Zhang Shengming's current situation, one word describes it. I mean, if he's still alive, I don't know, but there's only one word that could describe his current situation, and that is hopeless or hopelessness. If he truly betrayed Zhang Youxia and colluded with Xi Jinping, then Zhang Youxia's massive following within the military and the party would never forgive him, especially if the general has died. They would never forgive Zhang Shengming. That means Zhang Shengming's career would be finished, and he would likely live in fear for the rest of his life. But if he did not collude with Xi Jinping, if he had nothing to do with Zhang Youxia's arrest and subsequent death, then as the only CMC member left standing beside Xi Jinping, he would face enormous pressure to publicly side with Xi. And yet his conscience and his personal relationship with Zhang Youxia, which was described as friendly, would be pulling him in the opposite direction, especially if Zhang Youxia has died. This general would be completely torn. In the CCP's extreme high-pressure political system, very few people can endure that kind of stress. And when someone is trapped in that position, some begin looking for an exit. I'm not entirely sure whether Zhang Shengming has really died or committed suicide, but I can understand why. If it did happen, it happened. At the same time that rumors about Zhang Shengming were spreading, death rumors about his predecessor are resurfacing and hardening. Who was that? He Weidong. Now, former CMC vice chairman He Weidong, who was the second vice chairman after Zhang Youxia, he disappeared at the end of March. His downfall was officially announced last fall, along with eight other generals, all widely regarded as Xi Jinping loyalists ahead of the fourth party plenum. Many believe those nine generals were taken down by Zhang Youxia after they failed to help Xi Jinping stage a comeback. Now, He Weidong, the highest ranking among them, was reportedly trying to establish a private armed force independent of the PLA's command system solely for Xi Jinping. Under PLA's rules, this would warrant the death penalty. So as early as last May, rumors began circulating that He Weidong had already died. He died by suicide. I mean, he's, yeah, through suicide. And the person who disclosed that information is the same person who confirmed the news that Zhang Youxia was arrested, Mr. Cai Shengkun, who is a very well regarded dissident, political commentator based outside China. And at last May, Mr. Cai said that guards assigned to watch He Weidong in detention were reportedly released, and his personal chef was discharged and returned home. Now, those rumors are back in a major, in a grand style. Like all of a sudden, rumors are everywhere saying that He Weidong committed suicide while in detention. That's when I started to pay attention. Here's the question. If he died in May, why is this information suddenly surfacing now through the rumor mill? There's only one purpose, to justify Zhang Youxia's death, to pave the way for announcing that Zhang Youxia also committed suicide while in detention. But we know Zhang Youxia was probably killed. The sudden reappearance of He Weidong's suicide today is meant to condition the public for Zhang Youxia's suicide, quote unquote suicide, and to retroactively justify it. Because He Weidong died as a result of Zhang Youxia's cleaning out Xi Jinping's faction. So they're saying, in return, Zhang Youxia died as sort of a payback when Xi Jinping tries to fight back. So now, that's why this narrative is being pushed by Xi Jinping's camp. Otherwise, this old information would not be resurfacing now. Definitely not by Xi Jinping's camp, because telling the public, another vice chairman of CMC also died, is not going to help the regime to look good. It's not going to make the PLA look good at this point. The only reason that this rumor came out of the rumor mill, loud and clear, is to save face, is to justify another death. And that is also likely why rumors about Zhang Shenming's suicide are also circulating at the same time, because the two came out together today. These two, the rumors of these two men. If all of this is true, then one conclusion becomes unavoidable. Vice Chairman of Central Military Commission may be the deadliest job on earth. I'll come back to Zhang Youxia's case a little later, but let me just tell you how deadly that job is. Another vice chairman under Xi Jinping, Xu Qiliang, also died last summer. He was Zhang Youxia's predecessor, and he retired almost more than eight years ago. He died last summer. The official cause was a heart attack, but many people believed that he was in good health, and his death was connected to Xi Jinping's power struggle with Zhang Youxia. One version claims that Xi Jinping pleaded with Xu Qiliang to help him take back military power. And so Xu Qiliang took a group of, I don't know, PLA soldiers, and they went to Zhang Youxia's office trying to arrest him. And Zhang Youxia pulled out the gun and shoot at him. That's what I heard. We don't know. We don't know if that's how he died, but his death is believed to be connected with the power struggle between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia. So let's step back and look at the bigger picture. He Weidong and Zhang Youxia have very likely died. If Zhang Shimin is also dead, that would mean four top PLA commanders have died in less than eight months since last May. Eight months. That would include Xu Qiliang, He Weidong, Zhang Youxia, and now possibly Zhang Shimin. They died in internal power struggles while serving under Xi Jinping. That alone, they didn't die in war. They died in internal power struggles. That alone shows how severe and how dangerous the situation inside China's military has become. And I'm not done yet. On Friday, Xinhua reported the death of two generals. First is General Wei Fulin. Here we go. Wei had retired as deputy chief of staff of the PLA, and he passed away on January 15. Why does this matter? Because Wei once served as commander of the Chengdu military region. At the time, Zhang Youxia served under him as deputy commander of the 13th Group Army. In other words, Wei was once Zhang Youxia's superior. Now here's the second confirmed case. You already have heard about this. This is General Liao Xilong. His death was also announced Friday. Now General Liao was a key patron of Zhang Youxia. They fought together in the Vietnam War, and General Liao played an important role in Zhang's earlier military career as his patron. He died on January 23. According to circulating accounts, General Liao died under intense psychological distress after his brother and son were detained following Zhang Youxia's arrest. The official announcement didn't mention that, but the timing speaks for itself. Again, here you have another general who served as Zhang Youxia's superior. General Wei was 88 years old. General Liao was 85. And then there's a third confirmed death. Lieutenant General Wang Zhen, only 64 years old. He died on January 3. He previously served as deputy political commissar of the PLA Navy. His death was announced on the 19th, the same day or possibly the day before Zhang Youxia was arrested. Some claim that Wang Zhen was Zhang Youxia's nephew, though this still needs verification. Unlike the cases of He Weidong and Zhang Shenming, which remain rumor-based, these three deaths are officially confirmed. So within a very short time period, we're looking at three senior PLA figures connected to Zhang Youxia, all dead, with highly sensitive timing. That pattern is impossible to ignore. Given how bloody the PLA purge has become, I find it very hard to believe that Zhang Youxia is still alive. Now, I also believe that the open letter written in Zhang Youxia's name that came out on Thursday is itself a sign that the general has already died. That letter wasn't written by him. It was written for him by people close to him, saying what he would have wanted to say but no longer could. Now, if Zhang Youxia were still being held alive, if he's still in captivity, his friends and allies would be doing everything they could trying to save his life. They would never release such a letter because doing so would directly anger Xi Jinping and put Zhang's life at immediate risk. That is why the letter only makes sense if his allies already knew that he was gone. They wanted to say something but couldn't say it openly, so they spoke in his name. The letter is written with great care. I mean, it's beautifully written. That's why people don't believe he wrote it because it feels like it's very logical, it's well covered, it's comprehensive, it covers every angle. That's why people don't believe he wrote it. It presents Zhang Youxia not as a defeated man but as a visionary. To me, that reads less like a political move and more like a final tribute to him. I think this was his supporters' way of commemorating him and also showing anger at Xi Jinping the only way they could. Also, judging by what I've seen online, I think the Americans know Zhang has died, but they can't say it openly either. Over the past day or so, videos showing Zhang Youxia visiting US military bases in 2012 have surfaced online. I think it's released by the Americans because the Chinese could not have released those videos. They're always guarded as sensitive information. These videos obviously were released by American military. I believe the American military respected Zhang Youxia as a professional general. They felt that his passing is a great loss to the military dialogue or communication between the two countries. That's what I have for you. That's what I believe. The general is gone. It's not because I have insider information telling me so. It's purely my analysis based on everything that we've seen coming out in all directions, rumor mills, reports, videos. Again, that's just my analysis. I hope I'm wrong. I sincerely hope that he's still alive. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid that's not the case. So the question now becomes what's really going on inside the PLA? After nearly a week of total silence, PLA Daily finally ran a front page article nearly meant to denounce Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli and to rally support for Xi Jinping. And the article made harsh, harsh declaration calling for Zhang and Liu to be forever nailed to history's pillar of shame. But here's the problem. The article has contradictions. It has three anomalies, in my opinion. I don't have a picture of that article. Let's stay on this. Let me come back to that. First, it's not an editorial issued by the paper's editorial board. It's written by, I was told, a commentator. So it's more like an op-ed. That means this is not officially the newspaper's collective position. Rather, it's the view of an individual. And second, the article used a rare and atypical font. Now, party newspapers normally follow very strict formatting rules. There are only certain fonts that you can use. Deviating from that strongly suggests that this was treated as a special or a sensitive piece. It's not a normal publication. Not routine propaganda, shall we say. That's the second anomaly. And third, this is the most striking part. In the very first paragraph, the article states that removing Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli has great significance for helping the PLA eradicate lingering poison at its roots and achieve renewal through molting. In other words, this expression, renewal. I have told you this at least twice before. Let's pause here. That phrase, has been spreading like wildfire online in the Chinese language media in the past week. Why? Well, because the character for feather, because it really literally means shedding feather to be reborn again. The character feather contains two Xi characters. As a result, many people interpret this phrase as a coded reference to replace Xi to be reborn. There's no chance that PLA Daily's commentators don't understand the political sensitivity of those words. Especially after this has been going on for a week, everyone has been talking about this expression. And yet, at an extremely sensitive moment, involving an extremely sensitive figure in an extremely sensitive article, they place that phrase right in the opening paragraph again for the second time. People who work in party media are famous for their political instincts. I mean, that's how they survive. The internet had already exploded over this expression. They knew exactly how the public would read it, and yet they still ran it. That just tells you the internal mood inside the PLA. Now, the first paragraph of that article contains another line worth paying attention to. It says, all officers and soldiers of the entire military must resolutely support the party central committee's decision. That word must is glaring because doesn't it quietly suggest that many officers and soldiers do not, in fact, support the decision? In normal situations, it should say, I mean, PLA editorials usually say all officers and soldiers of the entire army resolutely support the party central's decision, or Chairman Xi Jinping, whatever. But they didn't say that. They added the word must. It's an order from Xi Jinping that you must support me. I think Xi Jinping waited an entire week only to be greeted by yet another wave of replace Xi to be reborn. Things don't look very good inside Zhongnanhai. Now, let's look at what's happening on the ground. Among the PLA's five theater commands, only the eastern, western, and southern theater commands have reposted the defense ministry's announcement on Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli on their Weibo account. They didn't post that on their website. They only posted that on their social media account, rather inconspicuously. But the northern and the central theater commands, the People's Armed Police, China Military Online, and the Rocket Force, not a word. Now, the northern theater command is Zhang Youxia's home base. The central theater command is what he and Liu Zhenli control tightly. So those commands are firmly in his supporters' hands. They did not post that announcement at all. So that silence matters. It points to real divisions inside the military, and what looks increasingly like soft resistance to Xi Jinping's move against Zhang Youxia. Now, there are more reports coming out about what actually happened. One media reported that Xi Jinping dispatched a special task force to the northern theater headquarters in Shen Yun to, quote-unquote, investigate Zhang Youxia. And here's a detail that really stands out. When that task force arrived in Shen Yun, they didn't dare stay at the command's own guesthouse. Instead, they stayed in a commercial hotel. What does that tell you? That's fear, right? That's insecurity. And according to other sources now speaking to overseas Chinese language media, I think in this case, it's the Chinese Epoch Times, they say that on January 24th, the CMC activated near combat readiness level controls, not because of external threat, but to guard against internal instability. There's a POA insider identified as Mr. Liu told the Epoch Times that before the defense ministry publicly announced Zhang Youxia's downfall, the entire CMC system had already entered its highest security alert level. And he said, everything happened very suddenly. We didn't know what was going on. We only heard that the defense ministry was about to release a major announcement, but upgrading to near combat readiness was shocking, especially since the top leader wasn't traveling abroad. I think he's really telling us when Xi Jinping travels overseas, the POA upgrade its command system to near combat readiness. And then he said, only after the news became public, did many inside the military understand what that alert was really for. And Mr. Liu put it this way. He said, later, everyone realized it was to prevent internal trouble. They were worried that something abnormal might happen inside the military. So in short, Xi Jinping's move triggered panic at the top, and that panic turned into resistance, hesitation, and a widespread wait-and-see attitude among the senior officials. That's what I have. Now let me talk about, I could go on and on and on, but I think let me answer some questions because there's so much information. I want to address some questions that were sent to me today. William sent me an email saying that there's many strange contradictions with all of the hoopla surrounding the recent event related to Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. And he said, many reports show large deployment of PLA troops around Beijing with significant impacts upon civilian lives. Yet many international leaders, like from Canada, from Finland, have recently visited with Xi Jinping in Beijing, seemingly oblivious to those large troop deployments nearby and restrictions upon people near certain government and historical facilities that those foreigners have visited. And he said, this is supremely strange to the max. I'd like to address that question. I think a lot of the videos that you've seen online showing military deployments, and there are even two videos showing artillery gunshots outside Beijing at night. On the night of the 27th, there was one video that was circulating, and there's another video coming out yesterday showing people heard artillery gunfires or gunshots in Anhui in the South. And people are asking, are we in the middle of a revolution? And yet, you see British PM and Canadian PM meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing. And in fact, the British PM actually toured in the Forbidden City. So how does that pan out? What does this mean? I think the military clash did happen, but it happened on a smaller scale. And I think it happened at night. I think that clash wasn't intended to overthrow Xi Jinping, but it was something that they had to stage as a retaliation to send a warning, to send a stick warning to Xi Jinping. But the PIA at the time wasn't interested in arresting Xi Jinping or overthrowing the regime. But they felt that they had to do something to get their anger vented and to get their message across. So they staged that show of fire that night. But it didn't affect the political activities during the day. Of course, they couldn't do that during the day. If they did, then it would be a coup. Then all the activities would be cancelled. That's why they did that at night. And also remember, China Youth Daily published an announcement saying that the 82nd Group Army was doing nightly exercises around Beijing. I think that could be another excuse for them. So it only happened at night outside Beijing. But of course, it certainly carries a political message to Xi Jinping. But they're not designed to overthrow him or disrupt diplomatic activities or visits during the day. So that's why they coexisted. And then as far as the other gunshots that we heard in the South, in Anhui, that's far away from Beijing. I have no idea what that was. It could be another military exercise or another troop showing their anger by way of a military exercise. So that's my explanation. And then he also asked me about Zhang Youxia's letter. He said, there has been a serious discrediting of that letter. I know that many renowned China experts discredited that letter. But here's how I look at it. Of course, that letter wasn't written by Zhang Youxia. I should say the chances that the letter was written by Zhang Youxia is very small. But we shouldn't get stuck on that. If that letter is authenticated, then we should use that as a reference in our discussion. And if it's not, then we should exclude it. That mindset is absolutely wrong. Because a fake document is very useful in our analytical work. CCP's news reports are oftentimes fake news reports. But even by analyzing these fake news reports, we can still come to some conclusion. I think we should focus on the intent behind that letter and also the impact of that letter. Because this letter is lethal to Xi Jinping's camp. But if we're so get caught up on, well, if it's not an authentic letter, then we should just disregard it. I think that's the wrong mindset. That's why professionals, that's why so many well-trained scholars or experts are still very, I mean, I don't want to use the word clueless, because they're so confined by their professional training. Their quote-unquote scientific approach to analyzing the situation has limited their ability to read into the situation. I think the author of that letter is false. But the content of that letter is extremely powerful and is more than likely true. And if you really read the letter, it has some very interesting detail. Because in this letter, it said that before Xi Jinping fell ill, before Xi Jinping suffered a stroke, he was arguing with Zhang Youxia over their strategy concerning Russia and Taiwan. Xi Jinping was arguing with Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhengli over Russia and Taiwan. And then the debate got heated, and then Xi Jinping fell and got sick. So that explains, and then after that, I mean, he was hospitalized, and then that's how Zhang Youxia obtained power. So that explains why Xi Jinping is so angry, because Zhang Youxia argued with him, and then he got sick. So that letter is part of the information warfare. That letter is obviously the information warfare staged by the anti-Xi camp. That's how I look at it, and it's extremely important in the scheme of things. So that's my answer to that question. Okay, I'll pause here. Let me see if people have other questions for me. All right. How did I do? Should I come back tomorrow for another show? Let's talk about Xi Jinping. Tomorrow, if I have time and the energy, I should talk about Xi Jinping's predicament right now. His political challenge inside the regime is tremendous, especially if Zhang Youxia is indeed dead. Things don't look good for him. All right. Maybe I'll talk about that tomorrow, but let's see what questions people have for me. Let me go through the super stickers really fast. Oh, here's one. Lily's dad. Thank you, Lily's dad. Thank you for the super sticker, for your support. All right. Wow. A lot of comments, discussions. So what do you think? Do you think the general is alive or dead? Let's do a survey. Type one, if you think he is still around. Type two, if you think he's gone. Type three, if you're not sure. So one is he's alive. Two, he is gone. Three is you're not sure. Let's see what people say. Casey Hanson. Well, thank you, Casey. Nilov. Nilov. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right. I want to see what people say. I want to see the survey. Brian Cowell. Well, thank you, Brian. Are you the same as Brian Kua or Brain Kua? Different one? I have a Brain Kua and I have a Brian Cowell. Gao. I should say Gao, Mr. Gao. Okay. Let's see. All right. Let me see what people say. One, two, three. Do I see any numbers? All right. Wow. So many comments. Thank you. Daniel Dorns. Wouldn't the PLA loyal to General Xia be almost forced to take action against Xi because Xi will be getting rid of all of them anyway? That is the case, but there are internal struggles right now. Maybe I'll talk about that tomorrow because it's a lot of information to share with you. Some of them want to, but some of them are still hesitating. So they're still deciding that internally. Someone asked me, Haile, could the general have written the letter with help, especially given all the tension? It's possible. Like I said, one of the options is he wrote the core of the letter and someone embellished it for him. That's possible. Okay. Oh, all right. People say two. Wow. I see a lot of twos. Wow. Three. Some ones. A lot of twos. Ones. Some threes. Wow. A lot of twos. Three. Three. A lot of threes. A lot of threes. A lot of twos. Some ones. Okay. Wow. Two, two, two, two. Yeah. Wow. Well, thank you. There are fours. Well, what is four? You could either have one, two, or three. I don't understand the four. Okay. So now I think the longer this drags on, the less chance he has to be alive. I think with this overwhelming rumor of two vice chairmen of CMC committed suicide, I just don't have a good feeling that he's around. That's my main argument. Okay. All right. That's all for tonight. How about we end it here? I want to save some energy so that I could do another program tomorrow night because I do have more information. Tomorrow night, let's talk about Xi Jinping's political predicament and what is he going to do and what his opposition is doing right now or debating amongst themselves right now. I'll talk about that tonight. So if you haven't subscribed, please do so and I'll be back. All right. Okay. Bye.