Toyota Yaris 停產真相：為什麼人越少車越貴？揭秘車廠如何「戰略性拋棄」預算有限的你！

Ask you a question—if the population keeps decreasing shouldn't prices go down instead Less demand lower prices—that makes perfect sense right However the fact is that many products such as cars are becoming increasingly expensive worldwide except across the strait where conditions are more complex Deflation intense competition demographic dividend still not peaking—just to name a few The entire world is now facing a severe problem of low birth rates East Asia's fertility rate is particularly dismal ranking at the bottom the demographic dividend is nearly exhausted as population serves both as a driver of productivity and a force of consumption So it's not hard to foresee that the region's economic level may decline over the next few decades However this topic is too heavy and complex Today let's first discuss from an industry perspective how declining birth rates are affecting the automotive sector Logically as the population decreases demand should drop too if fewer people are buying cars Car manufacturers should begging for mercy with knees lowered to cut prices yet the reality is exactly the opposite now there are fewer people yet car prices are soaring to the sky More than twenty years ago when I first started getting into cars in Hong Kong it was truly the golden era for young people—new cars were so cheap you couldn't even imagine it The 2000s A used car with a dull appearance can be had for just HK$60 000 an entry-level KIA model can be purchased for HK$70 000 even the most popular youth car at the time the Toyota Echo The initial batch is around 90 000 or so Although neither I nor most of my friends are particularly well-off there are still quite a few of us who buy cars and drive out for fun I once thoug Buying a car is a must for young people the cheapest new Toyota Corolla or Sienta now costs over 200 000 Hong Kong dollars a price that could have bought two back then Echo still has change left Aside from the car price being high fuel costs and parking fees have more than doubled while salaries have risen only slightly compared to before which is why friends under thirty now face such challenges Few people are buying cars these days the auto show hosts I watch have barely changed in 10 to 20 years and it's rare to see young people in the car enthusiast scene The chill of a market with few buyers and plummeting prices feels especially severe in Japan and South Korea where South Korea's total fertility rate has plunged to 0.68—the worst in the world The proportion of 20-year-old youths registering new cars has plummeted to a 10-year low of 5.7% while in Japan the share of residents aged 65 and over now stands at a record 29.4% Japan is the global leader in aging where young people are increasingly turning away from cars opting instead for trains combined with bicycles saving tens of thousands of yen annually Even the United States once considered the kingdom of automobiles can no longer sustain it with the percentage of 16-year-olds holding driver's licenses dropping from 46.2% in 1983 The price has plummeted to its current 25% the average new car price in the U S has now surpassed $45 000 equivalent to over NT$1.4 million Taiwan is now following suit officially entering a "living is worse than dying" phase in 2021 when its birth rate fell below its death rate a trend set to continue through 2025 Taiwan has already entered an ultra-aging society where one in every five people is aged 65 or older and over the past two decades real wages in Taiwan have seen little increase Car prices however have skyrocketed —ten years ago the Toyota Yaris was under NT$600 000 but now the top-spec Yaris Cross costs NT$820 The Honda Civic used to be the top choice at 700 000 now an imported model is priced at 1.399 million shrinking population should be a nightmare for automakers In fact global automakers are collectively entering a golden age of profitability with Toyota's operating profit for the 2024 fiscal year surging past 5.35 trillion yen Breaking Japan's corporate history with a direct refresh Benz proactively cut production capacity for entry-level models like the A-Class and fully shifted focus to high-end luxury vehicles raising the global average vehicle selling price Sales rose nearly 40% compared to pre-pandemic levels net profits once surpassed 14.5 billion euros General Motors in the United States hardly sells affordable compact cars running production lines at full capacity Starting at $60 000 per unit these massive pickup trucks and luxury SUVs generated annual profits of $12.4 billion Although the car manufacturers were impacted in 2025 due to tariff issues it's clear they remain quite satisfied with their own strategies The car manufacturer isn't the least bit anxious they clearly understand that selling ten cheap commuter cars to picky young buyers is far less worthwhile than focusing on higher-value opportunities Sell one high-profit luxury SUV instead Shao Zihua's fire didn't burn the car manufacturers' pockets but instead scorched the ordinary person's dream of owning a car The car manufacturers have already completed their transformation and they're now busy making money from that very crowd Those who stay and have money aren't at all willing to play along with those on a tight budget Many comfort young people by saying that everyone nowadays isn't buying cars because attitudes have changed Caring about the environment loving mass transit this claim is merely an excuse for car manufacturers to save face the truth is brutally harsh car manufacturers simply don't care Whether young people buy cars or not they 've already proactively removed budget- conscious individuals from their customer list—this is a calculated strategic abandonment Previously car manufacturers relied on economies of scale selling large volumes even if they made only a few tens of thousands of New Taiwan dollars per entry- level Yaris they had to keep up with equipment demands The detail-oriented first-time homebuyers are dealing with a slew of post-purchase minor issues Now car manufacturers have learned their lesson realizing that chips production capacity and global shipping resources are all limited They simply redirected all their resources into building high- margin large SUVs electric flagship models and luxury MPVs In Taiwan Toyota Yaris hatchback and Nissan Tida these classic entry-level cars are being discontinued one after another not because they're not selling but because automakers no longer see value in making such modest profits The car manufacturer's message is clear: those who've saved for years just to buy a 600 000-yuan commuter car aren't in our profit strategy if you can't afford it take an Uber Or rent from iRent The backbone of this financial game is a group of experienced car owners with resources while young people are still financing entire used cars just to keep up appearances When even adding 500 dollars to the fuel tank makes you reach for your wallet consider those 60-year-olds who hold retirement funds own property and have solid assets They are the golden geese in the eyes of car manufacturers These people buy cars not for impulse or customization but for a better driving experience More spacious access and egress The factory's current functional upgrades in essence were all designed specifically for this group the most economically stable segment of the population This shift in consumption directly triggered a profound transformation in market structure driving K-shaped development fragmenting the market network and creating a sharp divide between ultra-high-end and shared offerings Abandoning volume sales Pursuing higher unit prices car manufacturers are no longer focused on selling millions of small cars but instead targeting affluent customers who can afford vehicles priced at a million or even three million By the time were still lamenting that young people can't afford cars car manufacturers had already turned their attention to designing more comfortable vehicles for wealthy seniors Luxury SUVs are now the new movers Declining birth rates haven't killed the auto industry—they've just made automakers realize who truly holds the wallet After discussing wealthy silver-haired seniors we must confront a very real even somewhat tragic physiological issue This has nothing to do with respecting elders It's simply an irreversible physiological law of human aging As one gets older reaction time vision and spatial awareness inevitably decline The age group of drivers on the roads is continuously rising car manufacturers and the government can't afford to ignore it as the consequences are simply too severe The most typical example is In 2019 Japan experienced a shocking incident involving a teenage driver who suddenly accelerated At the time 87-year-old retired official Yukio Hanazuka was driving his Toyota Prius Speeding wildly through the busy district reaching 96 kilometers per hour the driver slammed into a mother and daughter crossing the street resulting in the death of 31-year-old Mamoru Chinatsu She and her 3-year-old daughter died at the scene with ten others injured Subsequent investigation revealed she had not applied the brakes Instead they pressed the accelerator mistaking it for the brake This tragedy sparked nationwide anxiety across Japan and even global concern over elderly drivers To hedge against the risks posed by this physiological decline regulations began to forcefully intervene— safety comes at a cost and that cost is extremely high Today's new cars Automatic emergency braking AEB anti-explosion collision prevention system lane keeping blind spot detection—these features have now transitioned from optional extras to mandatory regulatory standards Starting in November 2021 Japan has mandated that all newly manufactured domestic vehicles be equipped with automatic emergency braking systems or AEB Starting in July 2024 all new vehicle registrations in the European Union must be equipped with advanced safety systems Although Taiwan's regulatory timeline differs slightly But as the TNCAP safety assessment standards have been raised car manufacturers unwilling to have overly poor results have had no choice but to install these expensive electronic systems Shove it into the car This safety evolution directly killed off affordable commuter vehicles According to industry reports just a fully developed ADAS active safety sensing system hardware and software licensing costs alone The cost could reach as high as 1 500 U S dollars approximately 48 000 New Taiwan dollars—this is a shared security expense for everyone Technology indeed compensates for human physical limitations Protected everyone but the side effect was pushing the base price of car manufacturing sharply upward Twenty years ago car manufacturers could produce a vehicle with a simple structure Selling you a purely mechanical little car for 450 000 TWD Now to fit in that cluster of millimeter-wave radars high -definition cameras and computing chips The entry-level car's starting price has surged past 700 000 Since making affordable cars isn't profitable car manufacturers have simply abandoned those with limited budgets Those without money but with rigid needs have become the most helpless casualties of this safety revolution In this brutal drama of class realignment The worst part isn't the young singles who simply give up and fully resign themselves nor the elderly who早早退场 and live off rental income The true victims are They're the sandwich-generation families in their prime working hard and just starting out with young children Young singles can casually say they don't need a car That's because he hasn't yet experienced holding a crying infant in a state of collapse caught in the heavy rain of a typhoon Holding the folding cart with the heavy corpse and Mom's bag in one hand she stood flustered by the roadside waiting for the Uber that might not arrive for who knows how long For these people the car has never been a status symbol but a steel armor shielding their family from the elements These caregivers most in need of a vehicle in society The car-buying environment has never been worse If you want that affordable practical no-frills car from the past manufacturers have long since stopped making them If you're looking for a large interior space A luxurious seven-seat vehicle capable of carrying an entire family has become the exclusive mobile first-class cabin of the affluent class Alphard or Lexus LM This creature jokingly called a "boss nanny car" in Hong Kong and Taiwan sells for anywhere from 3.15 million to 6 million New Taiwan Dollars in Taiwan The most absurd part is that you can't even buy one with cash in your hand some places require you to wait in line for two years or pay extra and get allocated a spot just to take delivery of the car The entry-level barrier Previously 600 000 was enough but now this middle -income group is forced to consider the Corolla Cross or the Honda HR-V The top-end prices of these vehicles have already approached—and in some cases surpassed—1 million New Taiwan dollars creating extreme market pressure that forces the middle class into painful consumption downgrades A small family originally budgeting 600 000 now faces mounting debt just to afford a single stroller and a full set of car seats These individuals were forced to sign long-term auto loans spanning 72 and even 84 installments They sacrificed the prime years of their lives—78 years of labor— They were directly paid to the bank and the car manufacturer These individuals bear the responsibility of sustaining society's future generations yet when it comes to buying a car They became the most unfortunate韭菜 harvested by structures and policies The moment they gritted their teeth and signed the car loan agreement they were actually sacrificing their sweat and blood To offset the rising development costs driven by an aging population They simply want a safe space to move around The cost however is draining most of a lifetime's financial freedom This is no longer about purchasing a means of transportation it's about paying the social tax for the living space of one's entire family Facing this chaotic car market I have a few heartfelt survival tips For young people who haven't started a family Abandon the outdated notion that life is inferior without a car By 2026 the logic of buying a car has completely changed Now it's not just car prices that are high but owning a car has become a software service If you don't have a family necessity buying a new car is almost the worst investment in terms of return Don't be a full-ride mountain monkey just for pride let alone sign a 84-month contract that'll take you to the end of time Utilizing on-demand shared services like Uber or iRent and putting the 20 000 saved each month into asset investments This is the right posture for achieving social mobility For struggling families since car manufacturers have stopped producing new cars for the poor Let's not play along with their new car game Instead of signing an 84-month car loan and locking up our entire future youth into a high-priced crossover repair job Instead consider high-quality certified pre-owned vehicles from 3 to 5 years old These cars may lack the fresh-new-car smell But it has already shielded you from the most severe first wave with approximately 40% depreciation And for cars from 2021 onward Most now come standard with Level 2 active safety systems which is more than sufficient for protecting children Save the interest you'd have paid to the bank Take it to give your child a better education—this is worth more than buying a steel appliance that's already discounted upon delivery Declining birth rates and an aging population are not just cold impersonal statistics It has a major impact on the automotive industry The golden era when one could afford a car and its upkeep with just a regular job may have officially come to an end It literally divides our travel experiences into distinct tiers At the top of the pyramid people continue to bid up prices for Toyota Alphards or Lexus LMs For these people the car is a mobile first-class cabin—a private sovereign space they've purchased in this overcrowded society They command the greatest resources Sustained the car factory's record-breaking profits and determined that future cars will only grow more expensive Meanwhile young people giving up car ownership have seen through the rules of this game Casually turning toward the MRT bicycles and shared platforms The hardest-working middle stratum under pressure to raise the next generation and care for elders Forced to take on the heaviest possible debt to cover safety costs driven upward by an aging population these people have suffered the most in this structural transformation The heaviest burdened group You the one in front of the screen who decided to quit the carefree commuter lounging on the MRT embracing躺平 Still a necessity-driven dad gritting his teeth to buy a car to protect his family Faced with this strange phenomenon where people are dwindling and car prices are soaring what’s the deepest frustration in your heart Feel free to share your age and thoughts in the comments section I'm also curious how much should we really be willing to pay for a car