Giải Mã "Cơn Lốc" Tỷ Đô: Tại Sao Các Đế Chế Tư Nhân Việt Nam Lại Thèm Khát Làm Metro?

For the past two decades urban rail and metro systems in Vietnam have consistently been associated with terms such as delayed progress fund changes and complete reliance on UDA funding For example Ho Chi Minh City's Line 1 Bến Thành–Suối Tiên metro project took a full 12 years to complete before officially commencing commercial operations in December 2024 Yet moving into 2025 and 2026 we are witnessing an extraordinarily unique and unprecedented geopolitical economic phenomenon Leading private economic groups in Vietnam including Vingroup Sovico Himlam Cargo and Sun Group have simultaneously submitted numerous mega metro projects with combined investment totals reaching into the tens of billions of dollars They are willing to fund the research themselves commit to starting construction immediately and establish record-breaking completion timelines Why has a sector notoriously known for burning money slow capital recovery and difficulty securing direct ticket revenue suddenly become the most enticing opportunity for Vietnam's wealthy entrepreneurs What is the true driving force behind this wave of privatizing transportation infrastructure Is this a grand economic trap or a colossal game of land-grabbing by shadowy forces Today BCNN will thoroughly and multi-dimensionally unpack this issue We invite you to join us Historical knots and institutional breaths unlock hundreds of billions of dollars To understand the motivations of the private sector we must first examine the country's macroeconomic landscape Pursuant to Conclusion No 49 of the Politburo Vietnam aims to complete the urban rail transit network in Ho Chi Minh City by 2035 Ho Chi Minh City alone aims to develop 10 metro lines with a total length of approximately 510 kilometers To achieve this goal an estimated hundreds of billions of USD in additional funding will need to be raised Given the current levels of public debt and fiscal pressure continuing to rely on ODA funding or traditional public investment is no longer feasible The government needs financial resources while the private sector requires a favorable legal framework This interaction has driven a comprehensive institutional reform The first knot to be untied was the revival of the PT construction-transfer contract model According to lawyer Ngo Thanh Tung from the Vietnam International Arbitration Centre (VIAC) the legal framework for arbitration has at times been prominent and at other times obscure The BBB Act of 2020 previously banned new land development projects due to concerns over lack of transparency inaccurate land valuation and state asset losses However the freeze on PT has brought infrastructure back Noticing this the parliament passed the landmark laws Law No 57-2024 and Law No 90-2025 Effective July 2025 the formal reinstatement of payment contracts via payment orders will take effect In particular the landmark resolution for Ho Chi Minh City is Resolution 98 most recently followed by Resolution 260-2025 These resolutions enable an unprecedented level of flexibility Applying the transit-oriented urban development model TUD Ho Chi Minh City could use its budget to clear land and create ready-to-develop plots around metro stations Then use the land allocation fee to pay private investors undertaking the PT project based on market value equivalence With this transparent and secure legal framework private enterprises have finally been unshackled and are now able to enter the infrastructure sector The R-B formula and the currency printing machine named TUD The second reason and also the most fundamental one explaining the private sector's growing divergence It's the super profits derived from real estate riding on infrastructure development Worldwide operating subway systems rarely turn a profit However Vietnamese tycoons are learning from a model that has been extremely successful across Asia The R-B model a rail-plus-property development strategy employed by Hong Kong's MTR Corporation In Hong Kong the railway operator is permitted to develop high-end commercial real estate projects above or around underground stations The massive cash flow from Vietnam's real estate sales and rentals will fully cover all metro construction costs and ticket subsidies for the public forming a closed financial program When applied in Vietnam through the TOD model this economic logic is an irresistible catalyst Reality has shown that the presence of a metro line will establish an entirely new benchmark for property values in the surrounding area Property prices have risen sharply by between 20% and 50% compared to the original price When private companies submitted proposals for the metro project in exchange for land rights at the station they weren't making money from train tickets priced at just a few thousand dong They're making billions of dollars by capitalizing on the massive shadow cast by the very metro line they're exploiting In other words the metro is merely the essential infrastructure key that unlocks dormant real estate assets The strategic brilliance of the top leaders shines through clearly To truly grasp the pragmatism and strategic vision of Vietnam's business elite Let's unlock the mysteries of the recently presented super-project together with BCNN Sovico Group and others anticipate the North-South axis of Ho Chi Minh City Line 4 of the metro Sovico Group led by female entrepreneur Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao has signed a memorandum of understanding To study the investment project for Metro Line 4 from Dong Thanh to Ho Coc through the Hiep Phuoc urban area in Nha Be This is a large-scale project with a length of 47.32 km over 25 km of which are underground The preliminary total investment amount reaches approximately 157.45 trillion VND or about 6 to 7.2 billion USD Sovico is committed to breaking ground early in 2027 Why would Sovico bet on this 7-billion-dollar gamble The power lies in its closed-loop ecosystem Sovico owns HD Bank with potential assets totaling 800 trillion VND effectively solving the massive cash flow challenge This metro line runs straight through the city's busiest airport terminal generating a massive customer base directly connected to the Vietjet-E ecosystem established by Sovico In particular the endpoint of the route runs straight into the Hiếu Phước Industrial Zone The arrival of the metro will instantly transform the company' s southern Saigon land holdings into new real estate goldmines Vingroup also showed no hesitation by proposing to fund the research and investment for Metro Line 12 entirely on its own Connecting Ben Thanh to Cai Rang Island entirely elevated with an estimated cost exceeding 4 billion USD Even more remarkable this metro line is proposed and designed to operate at a speed of 350 kilometers per hour Reducing travel time from downtown Ho Chi Minh City to Cam Giay to just 12 minutes Vingroup's motives are clear and vital to its survival At Cam Ranh Vingroup is developing a coastal urban project spanning 2 870 hectares Total investment reached up to 8.56 billion USD A lavish metropolis located in isolation will not increase in value If reliant on congested bus routes this high-speed metro line is the vital artery defining the project's premium status Cầm Giờ has transformed from a remote island district of Âu Sa Sôi into the region's most valuable satellite growth hub in the south Consortium of Him Lam Thaco and strategic moves to seize opportunities amid economic uncertainty The race isn't just between Vingroup and Sovico A consortium led by the Him Lam Group headed by Mr Duong Cong Minh has submitted a proposal Investigation and development of Metro Line 2 Tham Lương to An Hạ segme And branch 2S connects to the West North urban area under the BT scheme with payment made through TOD land allocation Him Lam has long had a vision for developing large-scale residential projects in the northwest area of Ho Chi Minh City And this metro line is the strongest driver behind their projects Meanwhile the Thaco industrial empire formerly led by billionaire Trầm Bá Dương once again focusing on the central core area with the proposal to invest in the Bến Thành–Thủ Thiêm metro tunnel segme 5.6 km long with a budget of 33 trillion VND Moreover this section holds strategic significance by laying the foundation for a direct connection from Thủ Thiêm to the new Long Thành international airport This arrow hit two targets just as Tô was developing the Thủ Thiêm financial center It will dominate the most important transportation axis in the southern region over the next decade In Phu Quoc Sun Group is also racing against time o build an 18-kilometer inner-city metro line worth 9 trillion VND aiming to complete the tourism and leisure experience cha and the amusement park of the Sun Group ecosystem on the Jade Island The vast expanse or the grand gamble From a geopolitical economic perspective private sector involvement in core transportation infrastructure is an inevitable evolution of the market It enables authorities to de-risk cash flows and accelerate the often-stagnant progress of public investment projects and transform barren land into social assets through the open mechanisms provided by Resolution 98 Public and private interests have found common ground However as impartial observers We cannot overlook the extremely severe systemic risks Land acquisition for infrastructure projects is always a highly sensitive issue Determining the future market value of TOD land accurately is crucial Balancing business profitability without straining the budget is a difficult challenge that demands integrity and the exceptionally high level of technical expertise within the government system If prices are set too low public opinion will react If prices are set too high companies won't be able to bear the capital costs and will abandon the project leaving behind derelict construction sites in the heart of the city Second financial contagion risk from the real estate sector To build the metro private conglomerates will employ massive leverage from the commercial banking system This model tightly links the metro line's survival to the cycle of the real estate market Dr Huynh The Du once warned that the strategic nature of major railways must be accompanied by tight economic efficiency If the real estate market freezes TOD apartments along the metro line cannot be sold businesses will face a breakdown in payment cash flow to banks creating a massive scale of non-performing loans Threatening the stability of the economy Third reliance on core technology Vietnam currently does not fully master the technology for metro signaling systems and train locomotives and carriages Major technology companies such as FPT have spoken up with recommendations to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers If private enterprises act independently each pursuing low-cost or incompatible technology standards to cut costs We will have a metro network with disconnected lines unable to form a fully integrated system Ladies and gentlemen the vigorous involvement of the private sector in the metro industry is not merely about solving the problem of capital shortage It is a portrait reflecting the astute movement of Vietnam's business elite Shifting from impulsive small-scale development to the comprehensive creation of the spatial living structures of a megacity Through the flexible FPT and TOD mechanisms the state is using its planning and land powers as a special form of currency o hire private corporations to plow the way for modernization If successful Ho Chi Minh City will have extensive transportation networks comparable to Hong Kong and Tokyo has completely resolved issues of traffic congestion and emissions But if management becomes lax lacking a tight monitoring mechanism it's very easy to fall into a situation where businesses reap all the profits while the state and the people must bear all resulting risks As for you what do you think about How would you feel about redesigning the transportation networks of megacities worth tens of billions of U S dollars for private corporations Could this be the great lever that propels the nation forward Is it a risky gamble laden with long-term consequences Share your thoughts in the comments below Let's discuss this together Don't forget to subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications so you don't miss the next analysis from BCNN Thank you goodbye and see you again