The Migration Map Is Telling You Something About Tampa

So you're considering a move to Tampa Bay. Guess what? You're not alone. And exactly how not alone you are right now is the one thing nobody's reporting correctly. If you've had any doubts, just take a look at this Redfin Migration Map. It's a really great tool that shows where people are searching to move from and where they are searching to move to. And here's what makes this worth paying attention to. It's a tell before the headlines catch up because what it really shows you is what's happening while everybody else is still arguing about the last news cycle. And right now, whether you've been researching this move for a few months or even a few years, you've probably seen the headlines telling a very different story. The Florida boom is over. Home prices are crashing. You missed the window. You probably know the stuff I'm talking about online, the doom scroll, crash calling content. And it leaves you with a very real question. What do you do? Well, if you've already decided that Tampa Bay is probably the move and now you're just trying to figure out if the timing is smart, this one is for you. Today, my goal is to help you sift through all the noise so you're able to make a comfortable and confident decision about your move. Because if I've learned anything after helping over 200 families relocate to Tampa Bay and making the move myself, most people moving to Florida are starting with the wrong question. They're asking, did I miss it? But that's not what actually matters. The real question is, what is the smart money doing right now? Not two years ago, right now. Because when you read this map the way I read it, the answer gets a lot clearer. And honestly, it's kind of the opposite of what everyone else is telling you. And real quick on why I care about getting this right for you. Of all those families we've helped make this exact move, the ones who really struggled with the decision were optimizing for the wrong thing. They get so worried about timing the market that they either froze for two years or they panic bought a house in a community that never really felt like home. And then they end up wanting to move again. And in almost 15 years of selling real estate, I've never had a client have to move twice. And I'd love to keep it that way. And for those of you that don't know me yet, my name is Juan Alcala. And a little over seven and a half years ago, my wife Kate and I packed up our family of five, sold almost everything we owned and moved 1200 miles south here to the Tampa Bay area where we've been loving it ever since. So I know exactly what this decision feels like from the inside, not just the pros and cons sheet that you've drawn out sitting on the kitchen table. And part of the reason why we ended up picking Florida specifically comes down to some value stuff. And I'll be honest and share that with you in a minute because I think it's a bigger piece of your decision than the headlines let on. And I'm also a big research guy too. So one of my favorite phrases is trust but verify. And another way to say it is, trust God and all others must bring data. And if you're one of those people who are 100% locked in on your decision, you've already got a home owner contract and you're closing next month, you can probably skip this video because it's really for the person who's still doing real homework. So let's start where most people get tripped up. They read one headline that says migration to Florida slowed and they hear nobody's moving there anymore. Those are two totally different things and I'm gonna show you the difference. So in the first quarter of this year, the number of Americans looking to relocate to a whole different part of the country hit a record high. About one in five house hunters. That's the highest it's ever been. And right about now, you're probably thinking, okay, but everyone's saying Florida has slowed down. And that's true too. The amount of people moving to the state is definitely lower than it was during the craze of 2021 and 2022. And that's for a few different reasons. Number one, there are fewer home buyers overall because of where interest rates are. There was a lot of return to work that happened during that time. And honestly, people pulled their move ahead. People who were considering retiring and moving to the area or who got an opportunity to make a move because they were remote workers, they made those moves during 21 and 22. So this is part of that natural cycle as well. And what that really shows you is two things can be true at the same time. Fewer total movers, but a bigger share of the ones who are moving right now are pointed at the Sunbelt specifically. And when we zoom in on the map, Florida is still the number one state in the country for relocating house hunters. Now, according to the numbers, the state inflow is about 46,000. I've also seen it at 25,000. So it's a little bit skewed there. But regardless of that, Florida was the number two state in the country in terms of net migration just behind Texas. We had more people move here than Arizona, South Carolina, and Tennessee combined. And I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound like the boom is quite over yet. But here's where things really start to get interesting because it's not just how many people move, it's who is moving. So let's start by taking a look where people are leaving. The metros bleeding the most residents right now are New York, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Jose, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and Boston. And at a state level, California is by far number one, losing twice as many people as New York State, who is number two on the list, followed by Illinois, Washington State, and Massachusetts. Now, we've been working with families from these regions for the last five years, from the Northeast, the Midwest, and the West Coast. And I want you to notice something. That list I just read is those three regions. And if you're watching this from one of those places, the data is basically describing your own neighborhood. And here's the part that the headlines skip. When you sell a home in one of those markets and you buy here, you're not just changing your address, you're carrying what I like to call an equity passport. The average home in a place like New York costs roughly double the average home in a lot of these Florida destinations. So the person selling a modest place up North and buying down here isn't stretching, they're often buying more home with less stress. And this is where I want to get a little bit personal with you because you've probably felt this and wondered if you were imagining it. And let me just confirm the suspicion, you're not imagining it. People aren't only chasing the sunshine and the beaches and better weather anymore. And I'm not a politician and I don't play one here on YouTube, but I'm gonna share with you why my family chose Florida, because it might just resonate with you too. For us, it really came down to a handful of things. It was pro-business, low taxes, the freedom to build the life that you want in a place that puts family first. And here's the part that I want you to hear. We chose it for those reasons long before it became a trendy move and before it was ever a headline. And let's be real, Florida wasn't perfect then and it's not perfect now, but it really lined up with our core values as a family on top of the fact that the lifestyle was incredible. And honestly, here's the thing that I love most. And it's the part that never shows up on any map. No matter what side of the aisle you're on, in my experience, people here actually talk about this stuff like rational human beings, like neighbors, not activists. You can sit across from someone who votes the total opposite of you in a backyard cookout, disagree, and still shake hands and actually mean it. And that's what makes this place so attractive to me. It's not about just one political side winning, it's that grownups can still be grownups here. So I wanna be very clear, I'm not telling you how to think. But the thing I love about Florida is you take what fits your family and you leave the rest. And I'm just telling you what I've seen and what we've experienced. And if you are someone who's considering making a move to the area and you have more questions, don't hesitate to reach out to me and the team. All of my contact information is down below. Heck, there's even a link to my calendar. Let's get back into the video. Now when it comes to making the actual move, here is my whole philosophy in one line. Houses are easy, communities are hard. And what do I mean by that? Let me give you the example that I share with all of my clients when we're on a Zoom call. If I handed you and your spouse each $3 million and you built your dream home and we put it in the wrong community, you would still end up hating the house. When I say that, almost everyone starts shaking their head yes. Because what we all know inherently is the community is as large of a portion of the quality of life that you're going to live as much as the house is, if not more. Because you can find a great, modest home in a wonderful community and you'll love it. And like I said, you can design the dream home, but if it's in the wrong spot, you will end up wanting to move. Think about it, you can find a beautiful home in five minutes on Zillow, but what you can't find on Zillow is whether the neighborhood is still gonna feel like home five years from now. And that's the question that actually decides whether you're going to be happy here in the long run. And I'll share a specific story with you. Last year we had a family move from the Chicago area. You know, he was analytical, they were definitely spreadsheet people, my kind of people, if you will. I love data. And they came in and they were dead set on a very specific master plan community. They knew their price per square foot and the home to them looked unbeatable. And it was, it was an absolutely incredible house and I think a lot of people would be happy with it, but when they actually walked the community there, they knew right away that that wasn't in alignment with their ideal lifestyle. Because they realized it was gonna be a 25 minute drive to anything walkable for them. And what they actually missed about Chicago wasn't the winters, it was strolling the coffee shops on a Saturday. So we had to make a shift. We looked at communities like Seminole Heights, we looked at Dunedin, we looked into Safety Harbor where you have real walkable town centers. They were using the same budget, but they had a completely different lifestyle on tap. And this is why I pushed back so hard on Strip Mall Tampa. If you're coming from a walkable Northeast or Midwest neighborhood, you don't have to trade that away. You know, if you look at Water Street and the Riverwalk downtown, Seminole Heights, Dunedin, Safety Harbor, St. Pete, of course. You know, Tampa, Clearwater, St. Pete, the area has some great walkable communities. You just need someone with boots on the ground who will tell you which one actually fits you. Not just which house fits your budget. Because the reality is, we'll never know what community feels like home for you, only you will. Our job is to point you towards the communities that you're describing and share that community knowledge with you, that way you don't step on landmines. And your job is to trust your gut when you actually feel it. And I get it, I can hear the skeptic in you because I have one too, and you did your homework. You're thinking, Juan, this all sounds great, but what about the insurance? What about the hurricanes? And that's a great question, so let's go there. And let me just be straight with you. I would be doing you a disservice if I only talked about the sunshine, the incredible weather, and the dolphins swimming in the bay all the time. And while that is an incredible part of where we live, that is not gonna be your average Tuesday. Well, unless you want it to be. So let's run the real numbers, not the scary version, and not the sugar-coated version that everybody tries to sell you on. Let's get into the real numbers. Let's start with homeowner's insurance, because yes, premiums are higher than a lot of the country. And I'm not gonna pretend otherwise, but you have to run the whole equation. Florida has no state income tax. Property taxes are often much lower than what you're paying for up north. And for a lot of families coming from New York, Illinois, or California, the income tax savings alone more than cover the insurance difference. And quite honestly, our clients who have moved from Washington state and California, their insurance is often at par with ours because of fire, mudslides, and all kinds of other things that they deal with. And just to start with, homeowner's insurance in the state varies wildly depending on where you live. Areas like Boca Raton have the highest average insurance in the state, approximately $11,000 annually. Here in Tampa Bay, our average insurance for the area is right around $3,200. That's a huge swing. And we have clients, as a matter of fact, we have team members. Stacey here locally, she bought a nice new home in Wesley Chapel, a three bedroom, three bath, around 3,000 square foot, and she pays about $1,200 a year for her homeowner's insurance. Now, we do have clients who buy old cottages on the coast, and some of those aren't even insurable. So there is everything in between. I've shared our personal journey. My homeowner's insurance is right around $2,800 annually. We do have a flood policy in place, even though we're not required to do that. This year, that was $650. So if you take the two of those things together, we're sitting right around $3,600 for insurance totally. But I live less than a mile and a half from the Gulf. I think that's a very fair exchange for the quality of life that I receive. So as you can see, this varies wildly. You wanna buy smart. You wanna get the right home in the right community, and then the insurance monster will get a lot smaller for you. And just to add some context to that, buying smart means we have a formula for it, right? If you look for a home that's in a non-flood or a non-evacuation zone, non-hurricane evacuation zone, and I say that to all of our clients on all of our Zoom calls, if it's all-block construction, you have a newer roof, if you've got hurricane impact windows, for example, and those things are really gonna reduce your insurance cost. But if you go look for a historic home that's in a flood zone, of course your insurance is gonna be very expensive, because that's just the reality of living in Florida, period. Now, the next thing I wanna share is flooding, and I'm not talking about this from theory, because we personally had our home flood when Hurricane Milton came through, and I learned that lesson the hard way. And the whole thing that I share with our clients now is learn my lesson, you don't have to wear my scar, which is why me and my team obsess over things like elevation certificates and flood zones, non-evac communities when it comes to our clients. And there's a saying that if you're gonna move to Florida, you should write down on some book somewhere or keep in your phone, and it's hide from the wind, run from the water. And newer construction built to modern code and these non-flood zones holds up a whole lot better than people expect. So when someone online tells you that Florida's homes are uninsurable, here's the thing I wanna share with you, a very small portion of that is true, there's no doubt about it. But the vast majority of homeowners who live here in Tampa Bay pay very reasonable price to live on a peninsula in the ocean. So be sure to stay away from the doom scroll energy and do your homework about your specific situation. And once you do that and actually run the numbers on a house that you're considering buying, the fear starts to shrink as the reality sets in that your homes are insurable and insurance is more affordable than you actually thought it would be. All right, so let me tie all this together because this is the part that actually changes your decision. Remember the headline, the boom is over, prices are dropping, here's how to reframe it. Prices in Tampa Bay have softened. The median sales price, which means the middle of the activity is down around 7.5% from last year, depending on where you look. Now that's the caveat I wanna give. This is just like every other place in the country, very desirable areas are still selling at asking or above. There's a much smaller portion of what's actually taking place here. Our market looks nothing like the Northeast. Multiple offers are not common, they do happen, but man, you gotta be in a great spot for that to happen. And buyers have a lot of leverage here. Homes are selling for about 4% under asking on average, and we've got a healthy amount of inventory on the market, about four months. Meaning if we didn't list another home, it would take four months to sell through what's out there. And just a couple of years ago, you were waiving inspections and paying over lists and being in a bidding war. Now, if you flip that around, if you're a buyer, is the softer, calmer, more negotiable market bad news? Or is that a window of opportunity? Home sellers are making concessions again. Builders are paying your closing costs. They're paying our compensation as realtors. They're throwing in appliances and blinds and all kinds of things we've been able to negotiate for our clients. Homeowners of resale properties are much more, let's say, open to negotiating, replacing a roof if it's older. And these are things that really matter to your insurance costs, and more importantly, to the cost of ownership on a property. Because if you're really honest with yourself, that home selling frenzy that everyone is nostalgic about was really difficult for home buyers and a very hard time to buy. So if you take the two halves of the map and you put them together, the highest equity metros in the country are still pointed here to Tampa Bay. And that part didn't stop, but the panic buying did. That's not a boom being over, that is a quiet window. It's a smart money stretch where the demand is real, but the desperation is gone. And the doom scrollers can't or won't see it because a calm market doesn't make scary headlines. But you can see it clearly now because you just read the map. And here's what I want you to take away from all of this. Good decision making on a move this big isn't about the bottom. Nobody is smart enough to catch the exact bottom. Not me, not the guy on YouTube yelling about a crash. It's about buying the right home in the right community around the right people in a market that gives you room to breathe. And right now, you've got that room. So here's what I would do if you just watched this entire video. Go pull up the Redfin Migration Map yourself. I'm gonna put it in the description down below. Look where people are leaving and look where they are landing and ask yourself one honest question. Does the smart money's read match my gut? If it does, that should be a heck yes, and it's worth a real conversation. And when you're ready to figure out which community actually fits how you and your family wanna live here in Florida, not just which house fits your budget, that's exactly what me and my team do. There's a link down in the description, as a matter of fact, right next to the Redfin link where you can schedule a time to meet with me directly. We'll hop on Zoom. We'll open up Google Maps. I'll point you to the communities that you're describing to us. That way, you can make an educated sound decision on what Tampa Bay community fits you best. And I hope you've gotten a ton of value out of today's video. As a matter of fact, this is the beginning of the series. So if you're from places like New York, Illinois, California, Washington State, look for videos in the future. I'm gonna make an entire series out of this. Oh, by the way, make sure you subscribe so you can be notified when those videos come out in the future. If you have any other questions, do not hesitate to reach out to me and the team. Put the comments down below. I'm happy to hear it as well. Respond to each one of those individually. And I'll see you on the next one.