Tropics forecast: TRACKING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

Right now at five, a tropical system in the Gulf is getting stronger. It's officially been upgraded to a tropical depression and will continue to strengthen. Thanks for joining us at five. I'm Larissa Leon Fox for 35 storm team. Meteorologist Laurel Blanchard is joining us now. Laurel, what's the latest on this? Yeah, Larissa does look like this storm is continuing to organize and it's moving away from florida. So here's the latest tropical depression two is what we really started to track earlier on today at around 11 o'clock formed within the gulf. And it's kind of teetering right on the tropical depression, low pressure system threshold of where we're seeing this really start to gain tropical characteristics, but it's not quite there yet. So that's why it's tropical depression two and most likely this will become bertha as we take a look ahead. So taking a look at this map right here, we can see more of these continuing to pick up as we head through the rest of the evening. And with that, we're going to really monitor this five p.m. Update that has winds currently at 30 MPH here. And as we head through the rest of the evening, we're going to continue to track this storm, possibly becoming bertha as soon as we head into tomorrow morning. So by eight a.m. Tomorrow, this is expected to become bertha. Maybe even tomorrow afternoon is what models are suggesting as this storm continues to organize. So taking a look, here's the satellite image with the latest. We can see this storm holding that circulation and this is what we're really going to be continuing to track because right now it's starting to tap into that warmer water. You can see that intensification starting to happen over here. So it's starting to look a lot more like a tropical system than what we were seeing earlier on. So where is this going? We saw the cone and now it's actually taking a look where the models are tracking this. So right now, especially along the pan handle, we're seeing tropical storm watches, which means tropical storm conditions. So gusty winds, lots of heavy torrential rain is expected, especially in areas across the pan handle, including Panama City all the way over to Apalachicola in areas close to the Mobile Alabama border. This is where we're going to be seeing those potential for tropical storm activity over the next couple of days. So to through at least the next 48 hours, those areas maybe be on a little bit more of a closer watch on the forecast, but threats remain the same all across central florida as the system really slowly scoots off to the northwest. Most models do have this continuing to work its way along the gulf coast, but there still are two models that either bring this way out towards texas or even sweep this into the pan handle. But right now, most models are suggesting it is moving away from central florida, but the gulf, especially areas across the pan handle in areas across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama coastline definitely be more on guard as we continue to track this system further. So here is a slow pressure system. We are seeing all of this tropical moisture basically being dragged from south florida all the way up here into central florida and one of those downpours that we're watching right over Melbourne right now. You can see those really dark, low clouds and this is what's bringing in a good amount of downpours. So starting off in areas where we're seeing the heaviest amounts of rain, Gainesville and Ocala, we're seeing a lot of that widespread showers just continuing to move over Levy and Gilchrist counties kind of adding up those rain chances. But most likely these storms going to continue to behave through the rest of the evening, still seeing those gusty winds as these storms kind of track through Ocala and then move out towards Perry back into the gulf. Now taking a look here, especially across the east coast, we can see more of these storms quite literally following up the I 95 quarter. So Daytona Beach, Titusville, Cocoa Beach, Melbourne, continuing to see these storms kind of get dragged through this region and these storms eventually going to be ending up in areas close to areas in Gainesville and Ocala as they travel that way through the rest of the overnight tonight. Speaking of those storm threats right now, damaging wind and heavy rain are the two main threats out there. We've been seeing a good amount of lightning because these storms are continuing just to follow the overall circulation of tropical depression to it is non zero chance, but it is very low of a very brief funnel cloud a little bit later on, just like we what we saw on friday. So through the rest of the evening, very spotty showers, things are going to calm down as we head through the overnight tonight and pretty much we're seeing the worst of it now. Taking a look into tomorrow morning morning commute fairly looks good. We're gonna be seeing more of those showers hugging the west coast of florida before they slowly start to move inward. Here's three p.m. This is pretty much the most widespread those showers are going to get as we take a look through your monday and then that drier air starts to tap into the region. This is what's going to cut our rain chances significantly taking a look towards the middle of next week and you can see that here. We only see those rain chances about 30% as we take a look ahead towards your monday and then those rain chances really don't go any higher, at least for the next seven days. But boy is it going to be hot and boy is it going to be humid because you can see it in our rain totals as well as our temperatures. Our temperatures are going to be back in the upper nineties by mid week.