Russia stockpiles its most dangerous missiles for winter strikes on Ukraine; NATO is also a target
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Since August, Russia has significantly reduced its use of ballistic missiles and has begun to attack Ukraine more frequently with jet-powered drones. According to Bloomberg , this may indicate a stockpiling of missiles for strikes against Ukrainian energy production during the winter. The agency notes that ballistic missiles are capable of inflicting some of the most serious damage to infrastructure, including energy. Bloomberg suggests that the reduction in the use of such missiles may be related to the preparation of stockpiles for future attacks on electrical and thermal energy infrastructure. The cold season in Ukraine typically begins in late October or early November—presumably around this time Moscow could begin launching vigorous ballistic attacks. Against this backdrop, one of Kyiv's main concerns heading into winter remains the shortage of interceptors for the Patriot systems, which are needed to intercept dangerous ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, Russian opposition leader Garry Kasparov has named the timing of Russia's attack on NATO countries. He stated that the risk of Russia crossing NATO's land border is becoming increasingly likely. He suggested that Moscow could test the Alliance's readiness to invoke Article 5 on collective defense in the near future. Kasparov believes it's important for the Russian leadership to "survive until January." He linked this to the US elections in November: the new Congress won't take office until early January. According to Kasparov, the period from the second half of September to early January could become a window for Moscow to test NATO's Article 5. He asserts that not only experts but also official Alliance representatives are now discussing the possibility of such a scenario . Kasparov also stated that the war has become a source of new social impetus for the Russian regime, comparing the current situation to the period after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. According to him, for a significant portion of Russian society, participation in the war became a channel for social mobility, despite the high price the country paid for it. At the same time, Kasparov believes that Russian society is traditionally insensitive to these losses.
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