New terrible offensive into northern Ukrainian territory by Russia; threat to Kyiv is growing
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Russia hasn't abandoned its plans to launch a new offensive into northern Ukrainian territory, but the situation on the front is not favorable. Major General Oleksandr Pivnenko, commander of the National Guard of Ukraine, told Telegraf .
He noted that the possibility of a Russian invasion from the north should not be ruled out, as the enemy could carry out its plan if it accumulates sufficient offensive potential.
"Regarding the enemy's plans to attack the Chernihiv region, this isn't just my opinion, but a general one. I discussed this with the commander-in-chief. It's possible if they have 70,000 troops and finally reach the minimum potential needed for an attack on Kyiv. We're also seeing a group of soldiers from North Korea; it could be North Koreans, because I don't think they'll deploy them in difficult areas, since we'd quickly defeat them there, and they'd have to seek that potential from North Korea again," Pivnenko said.
He also didn't rule out the possibility that the Russians would attempt active operations on Ukraine's northern borders. According to him, this wouldn't be a full-scale offensive on Kyiv, but rather the enemy would attempt to create a buffer zone in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, in particular to force us to disperse our forces and deprive us of the potential to launch an offensive in other directions to recapture our territories.
Pivnenko noted that the enemy command could increase the number of personnel in the army through mobilization in Russia, but forced recruitment into the Russian army has not yet been observed. According to him, the Russians want to recruit 300,000 people into their army by the end of this year, and another 300,000 in 2027.
Pivnenko noted that the current situation for the Russians on the front is not very good, as they have lost the initiative in the Liman sector. He added that the Defense Forces have been reinforced in the Dobropillia sector, so the occupiers will have no success there.
According to him, in the Kharkiv region, Charter continues to conduct active reconnaissance and strike-search operations at the expense of foreigners to stop their advance on Kupyansk.
"I think the situation there will also develop in our favor. Well, we saw it ourselves at Liman, where the Third Army Corps took significant steps and strengthened its position. So, the situation is generally good for both the front and for us as a whole," Pivnenko emphasized.
Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Vadim Skibitsky, told RBC-Ukraine in an interview that if Russia mobilizes this year, it could very well launch a new offensive in the northern direction – toward the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions – as early as this winter.
According to him, if the aggressor carries out a new wave of mobilization this year, then by February, early next year, it will be able to prepare a powerful strike force.
He added that the Russian command could organize such an operation in February, knowing Putin’s penchant for symbolic dates.
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