Russia’s frontline gains collapse to lowest rate since mid-2023; Kremlin lost tens of sq.kms
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Russia's net territorial gains in Ukraine fell in September to their lowest monthly level since June 2023, according to the Finland-based research firm Black Bird Group, as cited by The New York Times.
A counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces in northern Donbas disrupted attempts by Russian troops to encircle cities that remain under Ukrainian control. Russian units lost tens of square kilometers in the area, while Ukrainian forces successfully stabilized defense lines across southern Donbas.
While Western analysts offer differing estimates, they agree on a primary trend: throughout 2026, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has yielded only slightly more territory than Moscow lost. These findings directly contradict statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming the capture of over 5,000 square kilometers.
A major driver behind the slowdown is the growth of Ukraine’s “kill zone,” enabled by expanded drone capabilities and strike systems. As a result, the Russian tactic of deploying small infantry groups to infiltrate Ukrainian lines—a method that previously yielded steady progress—has grown increasingly ineffective.
Despite the setback, Russia continues its offensive operations. In certain sectors of Donbas, hundreds of Russian troops are committed to daily assaults, supported by intensified aerial strikes on Ukrainian cities, as reported by The New York Times.
Previously, it was reported that Russia set its 2026 war expenditures at approximately 17 trillion rubles or $200 billion—nearly matching the record level initially planned for the following year—after Vladimir Putin ordered a significant increase in military spending.
The decision raised the defense budget roughly 40% above the original target after Moscow concluded that negotiations involving US President Donald Trump were unlikely to yield acceptable terms. Consequently, federal spending accelerated significantly throughout the first half of the year, pushing the projected budget deficit to over 7 trillion rubles or $82 billion. According to Bloomberg, Putin ordered the government to increase war-related spending by nearly $60 billion after the Kremlin concluded that negotiations involving US President Donald Trump were unlikely to end the war on terms acceptable to Moscow.
Putin had initially expected that talks with Trump could pressure Ukraine into an agreement and allow Russia to avoid another major increase in military spending, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
By January, however, the Kremlin had concluded that no breakthrough had been achieved. The government subsequently accelerated advance payments to Russia’s defense industry and increased other military expenditures throughout 2026.
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