The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northern part of Donbas has thwarted Russian occupiers' plans
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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that the occupiers will soon seize all of Donbas . However, recent developments on the battlefield paint a very different picture, reports The New York Times .
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Donbas, which has been ongoing for several months, has thwarted Russia's attempts to encircle the remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the region. Western analysts believe the occupiers have lost tens of square kilometers of territory during Ukraine's "Operation Vivaldi."
Meanwhile, in the southern part of Donbas, Russia continues to launch fierce attacks, attempting to break through Ukrainian defensive lines. However, Ukrainian forces have reorganized their defenses in this area and are currently preventing the Russians from advancing further in their attempts to encircle major Donbas cities. The publication emphasized that the pace of Russian troop advances along the entire front line in 2026 has slowed significantly compared to the already extremely slow pace of last year. According to the Finnish research company Black Bird Group, September 2026 was Russia's worst month since June 2023 in terms of net territorial gains in Ukraine.
Western analysts cite varying figures, but they generally agree that Russia gained only slightly more territory than it lost this year. Journalists noted that this contrasts sharply with the Russian Ministry of Defense's claim that the Russian army seized over 5,000 square kilometers of territory.
Moreover, the publication added that even ultra-nationalist Russian "war correspondents" doubt that Russia will succeed in encircling the so-called "fortress cities" of Donbas.
The publication recalled that Putin had previously stated that Russia's complete control over Donbas, achieved either by force or through concessions from Ukraine, was one of Russia's conditions for ending the war. Ukraine, however, has no intention of giving up its territories.
With Russia's goals in Donbas still unfulfilled, Moscow has intensified air strikes on Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian officials previously reported that at least 20 people were killed in strikes on several cities on the night of October 7 alone. They described the Russian bombings as a terrorist campaign aimed at breaking the country's will to resist.
In early 2026, Russian forces captured Pokrovsk, and in the following months they continued to slowly advance north. However, the publication noted that Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts believe the Defense Forces ultimately stabilized the defense, preventing Russia from achieving its strategic goals. Ukrainian commanders told reporters that Russia is determined to restore offensive momentum and continues to deploy hundreds of troops daily. Specifically, Lieutenant Colonel Kyrylo Dubrovsky, commander of the First Azov Corps, stated that the implementation of the Delta digital situational awareness and battle management system played a decisive role in deterring the Russian offensive.
The publication added that the advance of Russian troops depends largely on infiltration tactics. Individual groups of troops cross the so-called "kill zone," and then, once behind Ukrainian fortifications, they assemble, wait, and strike. George Barros, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told reporters that the Russians have nearly exhausted this tactic due to the expansion of the "kill zone."
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