Patriots vs. Bears: Playoff Stakes & Betting Trends

quite as much on the line, but obviously it's the NFL and every game is important. Patriots win, puts them at 5-2, half game back of Buffalo in the AFC East, and remember, they beat the Bills in Buffalo. But they would be a half a game back in the loss column. A New England loss, though, drops them to 4-3, that puts them two full games in the loss column, back of the idle Buffalo Bills who are off this week. So, again, not the end of the world. We're not quite at that point in the NFL, season but right midway through here and you start to analyze some of these things wild card factors and everything else so uh you know obviously it's a big game for both teams but with a little bit more on the line for Chicago I think a patriot loss uh knowing they beat buffalo already in buffalo so they get to play them again back in new england i think they can you know accept that a little bit easier than a chicago bears loss and new england last season completely different living a little bit of a charmed life playing the schedule that was just so soft from start to finish that's not to say that if you look at some of their remaining games they do have some tough games they play Kansas City they play Minnesota but Scott in the end they haven't played the Dolphins yet and you would assume there's a good shot that they're going to win both of those they also play the Jets you would assume they're going to win that and maybe even beat the Chargers too so so New England is going to be in the playoffs I think this season but their positioning I think is going to be much different and by the way their positioning didn't matter all that much last year they almost lost to Jared Stidham so I I think New England's okay you know I I think that they probably finish behind Buffalo and are going to be playing potentially on wild card weekend if things go right for them as you mentioned that key victory if they can beat Buffalo again then maybe that would change things for them but from a confidence point of view I still don't think in uh in AFC championship with any sort of serviceable quarterback which they didn't have to see last year but with any sort of serviceable guy whether it's Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes it's hard for me to envision New England going back to the Super Bowl but credit to them Scott because a lot of teams that lose the Super Bowl uh you know they and New England won it but a lot of teams that even go just generally don't uh or excuse me they lost what am i saying they lost to Seattle a lot of teams all over the place a lot of team they don't come back and have a good season next year that's what i'm trying to say Seattle beat New England usually that team hits the skids i thought that maybe watching them the first couple of weeks of the season but that has not been the case now so i anticipate you're right New England probably going to be fine if they lose this one but nobody should be surprised if they go to Chicago tonight play good defense or better defense than what we've seen and end up beating the uh the Bears and you know look they still have the offensive weapons A.J. Brown is now one week healthier one week better you would assume may seems a little bit better they finally Frables got those running backs going back and forth with Henderson and Stevenson uh you know a true coin flip game tonight for me really really tough one to call yeah i'll tell you some uh some trend people love trends right so uh patriots 21 and 6 straight up their last 27 games obviously going back the last couple seasons 17 and 8 against the spread so last year though a lot of this is based on last year that they were so good against inferior competition that their numbers were off the wall right uh how about first quarter you want to play some goofy things tonight they can't figure out you know You want to take the three, lay the three right for the game. First quarter, Patriots this season 6-0 against the spread. They're getting one and a half, a little juice, minus 140. Or you could go halftime, Frank, where they are 23-4 against the spread their last 27 games, first half line. Again, they're getting one and a half with no juice. I mean, that is really like, wow. Again, a lot of those are you won the game, So you came out flying, as the Patriots do. You win the game, you dominate. So you look for reasons why you would have these trends. It's not like they lost all those games. But it does show you that they come out ready to play. No two ways about it. So whether it's first quarter or first half, maybe you think eventually Chicago is going to wear them down and get the home win. But I wouldn't be betting Chicago first half or first quarter. That's for sure. Not with those Patriots. Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't bet, right? Sometimes, all right, I'm not going to bet it, but I'm certainly not going to bet against it now. Yeah, it certainly goes against Chicago, too, if you think about it. The Bears have been having leads and letting the teams come back into the game and get close. That happened against, I believe it was Tampa, and then that happened also against Atlanta. So it seems like the Bears get off to these leads, and then teams are able to come back a little bit on them. But, you know, I don't know if the Bears are going to win, but I got to tell you, I caught myself looking at Chicago, Scott, in the offseason and hearing all the stuff with Ben Johnson. And again, we have very little outside of talking and thinking, wow, maybe this offense is really going to be good. And then they threw 59 points down. And so why do I mention that, Scott? I don't have any data to back this up. But if you look historically, every once in a while, there's a team in the NFL that puts up a 40 and then they go back to being bad. But it's rare to see a team put 59 points up on the scoreboard and not have a decent offensive season. And that's why, after that, I'm like, okay, even if the Bears don't average 30 points a game, I certainly believe in what I'm seeing, that there's a possibility that they take a big jump. And then they kind of went backwards a little bit, and then Caleb Williams got hurt. But I thought, with Caleb Williams today being announced as a player of the week in the NFL, their offense certainly seems better. I am a believer in Ben Johnson. This will be a very big test to go against Rabel and that defense. And to your point, we'll see if Chicago does relinquish a lead in the first half and able to come back in the second half.