Dems sense pickup chances in Va., even after failed redistricting

Welcome back to Weekend Live. In recent years, Virginia has certainly taken a turn to the left currently. The governor, Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat. The House and Senate controlled by Democrats. Democrats elected attorney general across the board. They've had their moment. However, looking into the midterms, what indications can we tell? New polling out from statenavigate.org indicating Democrats may continue their romp as we move towards midterms with early voting underway. Chaz Nutticom of statenavigate.org here on Weekend live hey Chaz it's good to see you again thank you for having me let's talk about what we saw first of all the last statewide election uh not very long ago Abigail Spanberger absolutely romping over Winsome Earl Sears democrats grew their majorities out there after you know by all intents and purposes Glenn Youngkin had a bit of a honeymoon early on but with the democrats in charge are we seeing any signs how that might reflect on how the midterms are going to shape up in about nine days you know i think that uh either just under just about um half of governors in the country right now uh would have a approval rating that's underwater um that'd be kind of like my ballpark estimate uh you know right now i think that there is a higher anti-incumbent resentment than we've ever seen uh in the 21st century kind of the inverse of uh the uh 2020 pro-incumbent sentiment you know with everyone loving their governor getting them through COVID uh but you know when it comes to federal elections virginia votes quite differently than how it does in state government elections so regardless of you know uh what people think the governor's approval is which you know we haven't really had a a good poll on in a minute i don't think it really has an outcome on uh you know next week now i know you've had some successes with your projections uh and polling in the past in terms of getting it right i'm curious about what you're seeing as the most competitive races so far in the virginia area uh and then also if we're predicting any upsets here yeah absolutely uh so we had a poll that has democrats up 20 in the generic ballot uh for context abigail spanberger won by 15.36 percent last year in the governor race and the Republicans haven't fallen below 40% of the vote in the U.S. House elections since 1990. So 59-39 is what we have in our poll. I think, you know, I mean, it's hard to predict polling error, but I think that based on where the undecideds are, I think the Republicans do a little bit better than our poll. But, you know, even just based on it, look, I think that the D.C. punditry class has uh is pretty behind on where the actual state of play is here in virginia you talk to both sides of the aisle uh everybody knows that uh elaine luria is heavily heavily favored to beat uh jen higgins in the second uh at this point rob whitman is an underdog in uh the first and the real toss up is actually in virginia five where uh former congressman tom perriello is running against freshman congressman uh john mcguire so that's the state of play those are the three seats to watch this year okay so right now in terms and and you know this full well chas i mean polling it is a science uh it is not necessarily a harbinger of what's to come but it certainly gives strong indications if you when you're good at it uh your methodology here you pulled 863 likely virginia voters what's interesting is you reached out to a lot of people who took part in your earlier polls uh which is not something that that pollsters normally do so you kind of went back and talked with these people uh in terms of of what what you heard what sort of different different tactics does that take when you do that as opposed to trying to find a a fresh pool of respondents yeah absolutely so i think the the big question um that's kind of been on my mind you know i mean this this poll goes against my priors that's that's what i've been saying i thought that the popular vote margin for the democrats would be like plus 14 i was not expecting 20 um but uh in 2017 ralph northam won the governor race by nine eight point nine nine percent to be exact and uh when you try and estimate what the uh u.s house popular vote margin for the democrats was in 2018 it's uh it's plus 12 so i you know wanted to see based on people who answered our surveys from October last year and also some people from the referendum, how opinions have changed, seeing, you know, are there more people who voted for Winston Sears who are now going to Democrats or are there more, you know, Spanberger voters who are going to Republicans, right? I think that's the big question to answer when it comes to ticket splitting, you know, relative to a partisan baseline here. So, you know, there are more people who said that they voted for Winston Sears last time, but they're voting for a Democrat this year, which I thought was really interesting because, you know, Abigail Spanberger won by the largest margin for a Democrat for governor in Virginia since, I believe, George Bellisle in the 1980s. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong there. But it's been decades, right? The only thing I'll correct you on is Gerald. That's the only thing I'll correct you on. You left the door open. So I just wanted to put that out there. Hey, let me ask you this, Chas, because I think it's really important to point out, and you mentioned the referendum. You're referring to that ballot issue last year that was seeking to redistrict, which did pass, and then it was struck down by the courts. And yet, when you look at these numbers here you say a 20 point statewide democratic result could mean a 9-2 delegation you didn't poll it's important to note you didn't poll every single race so how do you get 59 39 from uh to nine nine democrats to republicans well we polled everyone you know uh we had a sample from everyone you know around the commonwealth we weighted the poll uh by congressional district uh as well right so uh pretty much it would be nine two the democrats won by 20 by just kind of um having a crude simple swing from uh 2022 or 2024 u.s house results um however it is worth noting it might just be an eight three delegation if you use the 2025 governor result as a baseline however i like to use uh the actual you know like midterm election i think that's a good barometer and you know there's there's some things I quibble with uh quibble with uh you know for example uh you know i think that uh you know if you're talking about like uh my my personal predictions is in the first i think taylor wins by five currently uh in the second i think luria wins by 11 uh you know and then the fifth i think Perriello does i think he wins by two points rather than one point uh if you took that you know crude swing and uh you know up there and uh up there nova right i'm from richmond uh i think uh suhas is gonna win by 27 and uh Venmin by about 20 uh so you know there's uh like each each race is dependent on its candidates candidate qualities uh and also the type of demographics that are swinging leftward or right word a big thing to look out for this year in northern virginia is um southeast Loudoun right the indian american community as far as i can tell is swinging pretty hard to the left compared to last year uh you know there are uh better uh informed experts such as dr ramadan at gmu who can talk a little bit about this you know a lot of them are small business owners feeling and straining the economy. And that's kind of the thing I'm really watching for out in Loudoun County this year. You know, I'm curious because what we're seeing in some polling nationwide is that some of the key drivers this election are the economy and affordability, as you're saying right here. What else are you seeing in those surveys? What are people here in the DMV are saying what's driving them to the polls this time? Well, we didn't ask what people's top issues are, but, you know, I think Virginia is really a harbinger of this data center issue, right? It's three years ago where I first heard of data centers. You know, I'm a Richmonder and I first heard of data centers and everyone being upset in in North Northern Prince William County. And it was a big issue that the Republicans were able to win on and kind of overperform in 2023. Now, it seems like I think that the Democrats are doing better on that issue. There is a great finding by The Economist that showed that basically there are more Trump voters who are closer, you know, within a few kilometers away from a data center that are swinging toward the Democrats in the midterm this year than those who aren't. So I think that's that's really interesting in that, you know, that we first heard about data centers and everyone being upset about it here in Virginia. we heard this a lot in 2025 as well this has been a big issue this year i think i would say it's probably in the top five issues and now you see uh you know a few months ago even you had a data center moratorium being like a sort of very progressive uh far left sort of position but now you're seeing like uh i believe republican governors adopting them right i want to say Greg abbott in texas is adopting that position so i think that's something really big this year that um i think earlier in the year was under discuss and uh and now it's very much a hot button topic yeah and it's certainly to your point there chas it's not necessarily something that is you know black or white red versus blue left versus right i mean you are seeing really mixed opinion on on both sides of it i'm curious uh there's a lot of curiosity to go around about this race for sure but you didn't poll on the on the ballot questions here but does that drive people out because i'm i have to tell you i'm surprised that we've not seen a robust you know vote yes because for those of you who don't know there are issues on the ballot involving uh involving same-sex marriage uh which obviously if you're going back to 2004 if you put that on the ballot that drove out republican turnout like that that's one of the reasons george w bush did so well in 2004 because his political operation pushed same-sex marriage bans uh in many states across the country but but they were planning a big opposition push headlined by Winsome Earl Sears we've not really seen a lot from from from that side either yeah i mean look yeah to your point there's been no polling on this uh you know i don't think people are and you know this is to kind of go off of what you're saying i mean i think this was a big thing in Michigan in 2022 where uh you know the issue of abortion was on the ballot um republican legislature out in michigan put it on there uh with hopes that people would be able to hopefully uh you know get their anger uh on uh out on Dobbs by uh voting on uh that issue however uh it did to your point boost democratic turnout in michigan i think is the conventional wisdom there i think all three pass uh you know i think that when you look at these type of referendums they usually pass by a wide margin uh but you know that's uh that's just me kind of going off of similar referendums constitutional amendments whatever you want to call them in other states and just in general where public opinion is on these issues uh you were saying earlier that you're you know projecting that democrats are going to be up this election how does this compare to previous years uh by how how much uh in the u.s house i i you know um again like uh there's a there's a decent chance even though i don't think it's the most likely but it's like you know we're we're talking about a margin error here right in the poll um but there is that chance that republicans fall below 40 of the popular vote in the u.s house elections which hasn't happened since 1990 uh if you know we do get a 9-2 democratic delegation right which is their ceiling uh right the six is not competitive no matter uh who wants to uh try and sell you that the ninth definitely is uh not competitive right in uh in Shenandoah and southwest Virginia man I want to say it's been at least 50 years maybe 60 years since there's been a 9-2 democratic delegation in Virginia you might have to go back to the Byrd Machine but uh I don't know I'm on TV here I was going to say don't quote me on that hey just just so people know because i think again i i have not seen the i've seen signs i was in i was in virginia over the weekend i certainly saw the signage out there question one is on abortion it's a constitutional right to abortion in virginia con uh question number two is uh is the constitutional rights for lgbtq uh people and lgbtq couples and then question three is about restoring voting rights after uh convicted felons are released from incarceration just to put it out there because you mentioned three questions but uh chas i we can keep talking about this, but we might run into election day by that point. So I'm going to let you go with that. Chaz Nuttycomb from statenavigate.org. Thanks again. I really appreciate you reaching out and glad we talked about this. Yeah, thank you for having me on. Have a good night. Thank you very much. And we're back with more here on Weekend Live. Stick around.