James Kaufman reports that Earth has entered an unexpected G2 geomagnetic storm (KP6), surpassing initial forecasts. The event, potentially caused by combining Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), has triggered geomagnetic disturbances and increased the likelihood of aurora borealis sightings, particularly over Europe and the northern U.S.
James Kaufman, World News Report, today.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are currently in a G2 geomagnetic storm,
looking at our estimated planetary KP index,
which is the one that NOAA and NASA has updated and uses exclusively.
That's a KP6 G2 geomagnetic storm,
much higher than any predictions.
Now, we talked about the two light CMEs combining into a cannibal CME.
That might be what we're seeing here.
We see disturbances prior to that during the day.
And looking at the college index, well,
we've been in a G1 and G2 storm for the last 12 plus hours.
Looking at our Fredericksburg index, it looks like, well,
it looks like we've had six hours of a geomagnetic disturbance.
and we're waiting on that next shoe to drop.
That next shoe should drop at 7:10,
and I will update you all around that time period.
But we're going to look at the space weather directly.
We also have 12 hours of geomagnetic disturbance
looking at our Boulder KP Index.
Let's concentrate on our estimated planetary index
in this G2 KP6 geomagnetic storm that we've just entered.
taking a look at NOAA's aurora forecast it looks like tonight's going
to be a pretty good night
more so over Europe than the U.S. it appears
but it looks like we're going to get some northern
lights aurora borealis please uh take pictures to the north
and see if you were able to see
anything we were on a G2 and that was really not forecasted
so we should have aurora borealis to
the north and if you can send your pictures
into world news report today at gmail.com and we'll
have a contest tomorrow evening where
the best pictures will win actual prizes that i mailed to
you you have to live in the U.S.
though again send your aurora borealis pictures if you'd like to
enter to world news report today
and we'll have a contest if we receive at least 12 entries
something like that although we'll show
your pictures tomorrow evening no matter contest or
not i'd love to have one
and you guys will decide the winner of the photo contest originals only
guys taking a look at our discover real-time solar
wind satellite here you know our shields are
angled north and then south north
and then south uh our shields are actually down here the red line
is below the zero which is bad uh
but we're not getting it as bad as i thought we would
there's a 49.77 reading there kind of odd and we
had wind jump from about 457 to 628 now wind is
pushed this high by plasma that's inbound
so there's a very good chance that we're about to
get just really hit hard with plasma you
also see the temperatures jump up from very mild
to above normal at least but that wind right there
is most probably plasma inbound and there's some
missing information here this could
be a very large spike in plasma this doesn't make much
here this 0.38 whatsoever shields are down completely in red
although we are getting
that northern angle in blue most of the time
which i would guess we'd be in a g3 or maybe
even a g4 storm if we weren't getting
that although these winds are not that strong 629
kilometers per second
and there's been no real plasma hits except for well these eyeballs up
here the 49.77 and the one right below it
if i can grab it, well i can't couple right here also
let's take a look at ACE
and see if we can get any better of a picture, actually i have something
better than ACE, so this is plasma on space weather live
and you can see we've been getting hit hard
for the last two hours
and it's considerably dropped off, i don't know why this is not showing
up on DSCOVR satellite, they had to get
this and they did get it from NOAA, i can see the caption
look at this plasma, they went all the way
to 30.37, none of this is showing up on DSCOVR or ACE
but they had to get it from NOAA, very very strange, we'll take
a look at the solar winds
looks like this storm may or may not be over, it's supposed
to be two CMEs, so we'll see what happens
solar winds were pushed up above 600 there
and are subsiding, but CMEs should not be solar wind
unless the solar wind is pushed in front
of the plasma, coronal mass ejection should be plasma
solar winds are caused by coronal holes
this was a solar flare, filaments and solar flares
actually release coronal mass ejections
which are plasma or a little bit heavier solar wind
you can see here our Bz is south, our shields
are basically down, that's why that plasma that
wasn't super substantial brought us
into a G2 geomagnetic storm, now they have 15 hours of this
forecasted. Everything looks like it's dropping off.
That might have just been the first of two
CMEs that are inbound, or that might have been them doubling up.
But boy, that was quick. About
two hours of decent plasma, up to about 40,
below 50 centimeters cubed. Chills down. Now, yes,
NOAA is always wrong. They had this storm starting
at about 1 p.m. It looks like it started about two
hours ago about 3 p.m they have it actually going through
the end of the day which is 7 p.m central
here uh this is 10 uh this is 4 a.m so they have
it ongoing through 4 a.m and they never went over
a G1 geomagnetic storm in their forecast
but they do have 15 hours of a geomagnetic storm and we've
seen two hours thus far
and we're going to wait for this next bar to drop right here i'll have
that information about 7 15 and i will update you
and let you know but it looks like the storm has
subsided from nothing to a G2 geomagnetic storm
and perhaps back to nothing if if they go with
the actual data that we're looking at,
I don't see any more plasma hitting, and solar winds have
relaxed. Again, there were two CMEs,
and maybe they did not combine, and maybe we're just seeing
the effects of one.
Shields are down, but our shields are angled to the north, which is
a slight or small advantage. That said, God bless, folks.
Get those pictures for the contest.
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and hey remember anything's possible bizarro world