The NHL has found their next STAR...

Three weeks ago, he was a call-up because somebody got hurt at practice. Today, no goalie in the NHL has taken away more goals from other teams than him. His name is Jacob Fowler. He is 6-1-0 on the season with a .942 save percentage and 1.54 goals against average. He is 21 years old, and I put him next to Carey Price at the same point of his early career. Because the question is simple. Did the NHL just find their next star goaltender? And it did not start like a star was born. In his season opener against Nashville on October the 8th, he allowed three goals on 18 shots, a loss, and the only one he has this year. Through his first four starts, it was nine goals on 90 shots. That's a .900 save percentage. The league average is .893. Three of his first four wins needed extra time. A shootout against Detroit on October the 10th, where he made 30 saves and allowed no goals. A shootout against Buffalo on October the 13th, and overtime against Buffalo on October the 17th. Meanwhile, Jakub Dobesz, who took over the number one job last season, is 1-2-2 and ranks 59th in the NHL in goals saved above expected at minus 3.9. So there was a job opening, and he took it. In his last three starts, he has allowed two goals on 101 shots. That's a 980 save percentage. October 25th was the Heritage Classic in Winnipeg, an outdoor game. A 21-year-old goalie, and he allowed one goal on 34 shots. Then October 27th in St. Louis, 46 saves, a shutout, and a career high. The Blues outshot Montreal 46-20 that night, and Montreal still won 2-0. That is a goaltender stealing games from his opponents. But a save total only tells you how many. It doesn't tell you how hard they are. Real quick, if you like breakdowns like this on the NHL, and you like the latest NHL news, we're home for it here on YouTube. Scott Lowe, hit that subscribe button. It's completely free to do so. So let's talk about goals saved above expected. i feel like it's something we talk about here on the channel it's basically how many shots a goaltender is facing how dangerous they are where they're coming in from and if you add all those up you get how many goals a goalie would save above the expected average goaltender so that's what that means and i think this stat is more important than save percentage because obviously you could take 10 easy shots from the point and glove them down every time that's going to count as 10 saves and maybe you know that kind of gets diluted in a night sometimes they're easy shots you get a shutout and you never really have many big chances but when you're talking about saves above expected you're getting the angle you're getting if it was off the rush off a rebound so that stat really matters because it's basically how many high danger saves you're robbing from a team and basically they should have scored two goals but you saved them right so that's why i think it's a more important stat than save percentage so basically you take all this data and you subtract the goals he actually allowed and that's how many goals save above expected you get. Fowler has faced shots worth 21 expected goals this season. He has allowed 11. That's a 10.1 goal saved above expected, and that's insane. That's first in the NHL. Jake Oettinger is second at 9.4 in nine games, and Linus Olmark is third at 8.3 in eight games. And Fowler did it in less games than anyone else near the top. That's about 1.4 goals saved a night his save percentage is .942 the league's is .893 that's a big jump now is where it gets interesting where those saves actually come from on high danger shots the one in tight or in front of the net he has allowed four goals the model expected 3.6 so that's about even it's the medium danger shots where he's been a wall the model expected 11.7 goals he's only allowed three so yeah he's not stealing every single goal but he's taking about the good but not great shots but this is really good for Jacob Fowler because a lot of the goaltenders in the NHL are letting these goals go in and he is not he's been a brick wall and that's where the 10.1 number comes from that is one way to see how good he is through the first couple of games another way it's to compare him to Montreal's last star goaltender Carey Price was drafted fifth overall in 2005 and in the 2014-15 season. He won the Hart, the Vezina, the Ted Lindsay, and the William M. Jennings award. Price went fifth overall. Fowler went 69th in the third round. So the draft slot says a lot. Carey Price should be miles ahead, right? Price also came up as a finished product. In 2007 AHL playoffs, he had a .936 save percentage over 22 games for Hamilton. Fowler's AHL save percentage last season was .916 over 27 games for Laval. So Price did come up with a bigger resume, but how did they both look early on in their NHL careers? Price's first 24 games in 2007-2008, he had a 9-13 save percentage, a 2.72 goals against average, and one shutout. Fowler's first 24, he has a 9-19, a 2-17 goals against average, and three shutouts. Price was just 20 when these numbers were put up. Fowler was 21, so we'll give Price that. Since the 2005-2006 season, only 23 goalie seasons have come from a goalie under 22 with at least 20 games played. The best save percentage is UC Saros at 923 in 2016-17. Second is Carey Price at a 920 in 2007-2008. Fowler is at a .942 currently in 7 games. He's not at 20 games yet, but that's the bar. Now saves above expected. Moneypuck has Price at minus 7.1 in 2008-2009 over 52 games, minus 1.4 in 2009-2010 over 41 games, and Fowler is at plus 10.1 through 7. Price didn't hit plus 20 until 2010-2011, his fourth season. He was 23, he played 72 games, posted a .923, and made the All-Star game. Fowler has the first half of that in 7 games, not 72. Price's first four seasons weren't a straight line, a .920, then a .905, then a .912 then a .923 and for the ceiling look at 2014-15 a .933 save percentage and a plus 33.2 goals save above expected over 66 games first in the NHL that's the season he won the Hart and rightfully so that's half a goal a night Fowler's at 1.4 now through seven games it's not 66 games but he's been way above that line at this point but Price also shows you how this can go in 2008-2009 he opened the season with a .937 save percentage over his first seven games. Overall, at 52, he finished with a .905. That's the risk with a seven-game sample size. How much can we trust it? Here's the case against him. Seven games and 191 shots in the last season. In 17 NHL games, he had a .908 save percentage. That was still the best on the team. Jakub Dobeš had a .901 over 43 games, and Samuel Montembeault had .872 over 25 games. So even in a down year, Fowler was Montreal's best goaltender by the stats, so he didn't get here by accident. He's from Melbourne, Florida, then he left to go to the USHL, then Montreal picked him up at the 69th pick in the third round. At Boston College, he had a .926 save percentage in his first season, and a .940 in his second, with a 1.63 goals against average. Hockey East Goaltender of the Year both times. This is not a guy who's had a lucky week. This is a guy who's been proven to be a great goaltender, and the NHL is just starting to realize that. He's only 21, and Price's first 9-2-3 season came when he was 23 years old, so goalies usually get better from here, not worse, and Jacob Fowler's on the right trajectory to be the next star in the NHL. So what does a goalie like that do to a team? Montreal gives us the cleanest test there is. The Canadiens have played 12 games. Fowler started 7, and Jakub Dobesh started the other 5. In Fowler's 7 starts, Montreal is 6-1-0 and has outscored opponents 19-13. In Dobesh's 5, they're 1-2-2 and were outscored 23-19. In those 5 games, Dobesh has averaged an .847 save percentage and has 4.47 goals against average. That's a goal differential of plus 6 with Fowler and minus 4 with Dobesh. Plus 6 over 7 games is close to a goal a night. Put the two goalies side by side. Fowler is at plus 10.1 goals save above expected. Dobesh is at minus 3.9. That's a 14-goal gap between two goalies on the same team in 12 games. And Dobesh isn't a scrub either. He played great in the playoffs last year, took the starting job from Samuel Montembeault, got 29 wins in the regular season last year, but that just shows how things quickly change in the NHL. The crazy thing is Montreal scored 19 goals across both stretches. Nothing changed in terms of goal scoring. The goaltending did. This isn't a juggernaut. The Montreal Canadiens score three goals a game and allow 3.0. They're even in shots. 28 for 28.2 against there's seven three and two second in the Atlantic Division with the goal difference of plus two Samuel Montembeault is reportedly out for two more weeks and VVM Sports says Montreal played St Louis without Nick Suzuki and Ivan Demidov as they are on the injured reserve for now this is Fowler's net there are still 70 games left in this season for Montreal and nobody expects Fowler to keep a 1.4 goals a game right now uh but you know the real question is is it real here's what to watch if he can keep saving a lot of these medium danger chances he'll be looking good for the rest of the season and honestly we got Montembeault coming back in two weeks it'll be interesting to see what happens there but I'd say at this point Montembeault is probably going to be traded so here's my answer has the NHL found their next star goaltender yes we see him compared against one of the league's best goaltenders of all time in Carey Price and he's right there competing with him that means he's on the right career trajectory to be a star yes it's only seven games but you know that was it's Carey Price had similar numbers in his first seven games so I'm all in on I'm Jacob Fowler right now I do think that he is going to be a great goaltender in this league and no goaltender has had the more has had more saves above expected this early in their career than Jacob Fowler that's this that's a star in the making and we're watching it in real time I want to hear from you guys down below in the comments do you think Fowler or Carey Price was the better goaltender at this point in their career I'd love to hear from you guys down below in the comment section and thanks again for tuning into another episode NHL Digest here if you're enjoying the daily content just like this here on the channel go down below hit that subscribe button it's completely free to do so put those notifications on so you do know when we post also leave a like leave a comment down below there as well I want to hear who your favorite goaltender of all time is down below in the comment section and as always I've been your host Casey keep your stick on the ice