US midterms 2026: Black and Latino voters could reshape elections | This Is America

Hello, this is America, and this is a country where the 2026 midterms are about more than just which party controls Congress. They're about coalitions. They're about whether or not each party can hold on to the voters that they really need. Remember 2024, President Trump scored particularly well with Latino voters, especially here in Texas. But now, Black, Muslim, Arab voters are all part of that conversation, that debate about shifting political loyalties. We're going to have more for you from here in Texas shortly. But first to the team in Washington, D.C., here's Alex Marquardt. Thank you, Phil. One of the driving factors that helped secure Donald Trump a second presidential term was the support that he picked up from young black and Latino voters. But those same groups are now turning back against him. Trump's immigration policies, the sharp rise in the cost of living and the redrawing of electoral boundaries have all been impacting support for Republicans. In the state of Louisiana, a Supreme Court ruling is raising concern about black voters' potential representation. The decision struck down Louisiana's congressional map, which included a second majority black district and narrowed a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. Heidi Jo Castro is in Baton Rouge with more on what it all could mean for black voters. Between the music and flavors of this pregame football celebration at the historically black Southern University in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is an urgent drive to register voters at a time when many feel they're being suppressed. It was a move of foot to silence our voice and we're just going to have to stand back and not let that happen. Black voters in Louisiana have been fighting for political power for decades, meeting here at the historic state capitol to organize the first-ever bus boycott of the civil rights movement. They thought they'd won when Congress passed the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which sought to protect the right of minority voters to elect someone from their own community. In Louisiana, where a third of the population is black, that goal was finally realized two years ago, when voters elected a U.S. House delegation that was also a third black. Then came a U.S. Supreme Court decision in April declaring that racism in voting was over in America and that the legal protections were unnecessary. States could now run elections and draw the boundaries of congressional districts as they see fit. In Louisiana, that had immediate consequences for black voters. If they can't control the votes one way, they're going to control them another way. Under the previous Louisiana House district map, this Baton Rouge barbershop was within District 6, a district that was black majority and that leaned Democratic. After the Supreme Court ruling, Louisiana Republicans redrew the map, cutting out the barbershop area with its many black Democratic voters and adding areas with more white Republican voters. The end result is a new District 6 where the black vote is the minority and where Republicans have a greater chance of winning. When you look at the way they redrew the line, the only people that it affected is the minorities. Republicans say it has nothing to do with race, but rather with keeping their majorities in Congress. Under the direction of President Donald Trump, Republicans in seven states have pushed through new congressional maps that benefit their party. Democrats have countered with the same tactic in two states. Once you've done your best, there's nothing else you can do. 88-year-old civil rights leader Press Robinson led black voters in a lawsuit against Louisiana's Republican-drawn maps. Republicans and Democrats are expressing that they feel empowered now that the Supreme Court says you can redistrict based on political needs, unless it's overtly racist. But that would be fine if they did it correctly and fairly. But it's not fair, you know? All men are created equal, right? So says one of our founding documents. That's not right. Why would you pack black voters into one district and not let them have an opportunity to have their voices heard? The only thing left to do, these voters say, is to keep casting ballots. Heidi Jocastro, Al Jazeera, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. So let's dive into the shifting voting blocks with our guests. We have Lisa Miller. She is a Republican strategist and the former communications director for the Republican National Committee. And we also have with us Mally Smith, a Democratic strategist. Lisa, Mally, thank you both for being with me. I do want to start with these shifts all across these different voting blocks. It's not just the black voters and Jewish voters and Arab and Muslim American voters and Hispanic voters. So where are you seeing, Lisa, these changes compared to, say, 2024? You know, so much of the map, so much of the prediction models that we have been seeing over the last 10 and 12 years have shifted in a way that it seems like now we can't say definitively that Arab Americans or black Americans or Jewish Americans vote in one way or another. I think the one shift that I'm seeing is that they are fundamentally going to the polls and making decisions based on their issue that they care the most about and less about which party it is that's speaking or that they traditionally might have supported. A bit more independence. Mally, how do you see it? What I think you see here is that the folks who were the last groups to join the Trump coalition to help put him over the top in 2024, I'd say young voters, his increased support among Hispanics, and even his increased support among African Americans. They're the first to go. So those groups are shifting back to Democrats. We saw this in the 2025 off-year elections with Mickey Sherrill in New Jersey, that some of the most Hispanic precincts are the ones who broke the most heavily towards her. So if that is the case, and if the polling is correct and 2025 is correct, I think you could see that really play a factor in states like Texas. We just saw Heidi Jo Castro's report there from Louisiana, but there has been redistricting across the country, mostly by Republicans, but by Democrats as well. Mally, again to you, how much do you think this redistricting is going to impact the power of the black vote, both in these midterms and then heading into 2028? Well, the redistricting has done two things. First off, it undoubtedly helped Republicans. It's given them more of a floor and it's helped make more seats safe for them. So there's just less at play. I still think Democrats are going to pick up the House, but it does give them a better opportunity that, you know, if something happens weird with the polling error, maybe they could retain it. But the other thing it's done, which has benefited Democrats, is it's spiked African-American turnout. In my home state of North Carolina, the early voting numbers for Democrats are quite truthfully astronomically high. Same in Georgia, same in Louisiana. And it's a backlash to the Calais decision because African-American voters do not like how Republicans have taken advantage of that court ruling to take away districts that were predominantly represented by African-Americans. Lisa, to that point that Mally made about groups that joined later on, there was a spike among African-American males in 2024 for Trump. Is he going to be able to hold on to those voters or Republicans in these midterms? It's a great point. I hadn't even thought about that, but it makes a ton of sense to me. And the reason why it makes sense is because the president, when he was on the stump two years ago, was talking about issues that were really resonating for those specific voting blocs. And I think that one of the things that we're hearing out in the field is that there are voters in those specific regions and those specific demographics that are feeling as if those needs have not been met. So it's going to be the candidates in each and every one of these districts that speaks to those concerns and speaks to those issues that will be successful. That's why I find it very difficult to say that things are going to go one way or another, because it's hard to look at every specific district and say it's going to wholesale be a loss. I think more importantly, you're going to find that candidates still very much matter. And the way they talk about issues still very much is what will make them be successful. Yeah. And of course, we hate to generalize and talk about voting blocs as monoliths and voting all across the country, which is why I want to dive into specific states, specific races and candidates. But while we are keeping it general, so much is based on enthusiasm. And there's always a dip in enthusiasm in these midterm years. Black voters as a bloc are often counted on by Democratic candidates. Do you think that enthusiasm is there this year? You see it among African-Americans and a lot of people, as I said, attribute it to the Calais decision. But I think you just see it broadly across the party that Democrats are voting like it's a presidential year. And Republicans at the moment, if you look at early voting, are not even voting like it's a midterm year. And that turnout differential is going to help put a lot of seats in play. And quite truthfully, if you look at some of the races where Democrats are competitive in, like Adam Hamilton in Alaska, I mean, Alaska and Kansas, you don't get that unless you have a very motivated Democratic base, a depressed Republican base and independents breaking for Democrats. So it just shows you how many things are breaking the Democrats away at this moment. And one of the races where the African-American vote really is coming under a microscope is in Michigan, where you have a white candidate in Mike Rogers, an Arab-American candidate in Abdullah al-Sayed. And again, black voters traditionally overwhelmingly going for the Democrat. But I was just in Michigan and I was speaking to several prominent black figures in the political world. And they were telling me about the sort of historic friction between the Arab and the African-American communities there. To what extent do you think Abdel El-Sayed in Michigan is having a problem with African-American voters? You know, I don't necessarily think that he is. Yes, I know about this historic. You think it's overblown? Because I was told the same thing. I think it's overblown. And I think it's because he is fundamentally a better communicator. He is breaking through far greater than, you know, sitting here as the Republican strategist. I will tell you that the reason why that success has been realized and is working in the favor of the Democratic candidate is because his message is really cutting through the noise and speaking to people that really are concerned about the cost of living and the cost of all goods and services that we're seeing go up and up. Do you think that concern is overblown in Michigan? I think it's overblown. I wouldn't be surprised me maybe if he does a point or two worse than a generic Democrat. But I think also El-Sayed is a candidate who has a low floor and a high ceiling. And by that, I mean he is a really talented political communicator. He's also a fighter. You see it in all of his his messaging. He's willing to go get basically get into verbal fisticuffs with anyone who attacks him, Republican or Democrat. But I think that in the end, Democrats are going to come home, especially African-Americans. And when you have a closer like President Obama and Kamala Harris come to the state, I think in the end we'll see this as more of a media driven narrative where we're able to find a few voices that are loud. But overall, you don't see it in the numbers. And if they don't come home, they're likely to stay home rather than go out and vote for the other candidate. Yes. I mean, I think a good number for Rogers would be 10 percent. And I don't think he's going to get anywhere near that. All right. Let's talk about another critical voting bloc, Hispanic voters, because President Trump, he's asking voters to pretend that he's on the ballot in Texas. That could backfire with that group of voters. He won more than half of Latinos. That's including border communities that typically favored Democrats. But now his support among Hispanic voters has plummeted. This, according to an NBC News Telemundo poll recently, it had the president's approval rating at just 27 percent with Latino voters. That's under the national average. 67 percent of those polled said that Trump's immigration enforcement had gone too far. Fifty four percent said that they will use their vote in the midterms to send a signal of opposition to Donald Trump. Now, Trump carried the district where McAllen, Texas, is by 18 points just two years ago. Now it's seen as a close race. Our Phil Lavelle looks at why some Hispanic voters there are looking at switching their vote back to the Democrats. So I've been a Trump supporter since day one. I would like to say that maybe I was a Trump supporter before he even started saying that he was going to run for president. But for Mario, there is a lot of buyer's remorse these days. I don't think I can support what this administration is doing anymore. The property developer president spent years vowing to build a great, great wall on our southern border. But for this builder near the border, it has been tough. The economy hitting building costs, ICE crackdowns taking away much-needed laborers. We never thought that he was going to be deporting people that are hardworking, because we believe in hard work. And I feel like this is the biggest betrayal that Hispanics have seen in years. This is where support surged for President Trump back in 2024. Border communities with large Latino populations that typically had voted Democrat in the past. We're getting support from Latinos like never before. More than half of Texas Latinos picked him, and nearly half at a national level. But now that number has dropped. Only 33% here approve of him, at least according to one poll, which matters because he said this about the midterms. So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. That same poll has Democrats up two to one in both the Senate and the governor's races. But frustration is one thing. Turning that into votes, that's quite another. They've given them a chance. Now they want change. Gina Hinojosa is the Democrats' hope for governor, a Latina who grew up on the border. Polls have her ranging from several points behind current governor Greg Abbott to narrowly ahead. Democrats haven't held this office in 30 years. They feel now this could be it. This right now is a historic opportunity because people are struggling in a way I've never seen before in Texas. Democrats point to January when Taylor Remmitt flipped a state Senate seat near Fort Worth, a district Trump won by 17 points. Big swings in Latino areas. Now they're hoping James Tallarico will mirror that with Ken Paxton, Trump's pick for Senate. Tallarico is ahead in several polls. And for the U.S. House, they're up against controversial redrawn maps altered by Republicans last year to give them up to a five-seat advantage. Neither Governor Abbott nor Ken Paxton responded to our interview requests. They are in full campaign mode now. I'm running for state office. As is Gary Groves, running for the House here in South Texas, where the shadow of Trump looms large for him. His support here has dropped by a large amount because every time ICE gets somebody, they're attacking him and attacking him and Republicans. And it even happens with Republicans. But that must affect you, surely. Of course it does, but it doesn't. because I understand these are the issues they're having. Republicans point out that polls can get it wrong. They say that's the only one that matters. Election day, November 3rd. How will you vote in November? Well, in November, I'm going to vote. I'm going to have to vote blue. Trump won this place in 2024. Whether his party can hold it now, that's the real test with 2028 already in view. Phil Lavelle, Al Jazeera, in the Rio Grande Valley, Texas. So I just got back from Texas as well, and spend some time with Hispanic voters. And, you know, you look back at 2024 and Trump did well with Hispanics in Texas because of border security and because of Biden's economy. Everyone I spoke with, Lisa, brought up ICE. To what extent do you think that that immigration enforcement and what ICE and other federal agencies have done are going to hurt the Republicans there in Texas and nationwide? I think it's absolutely, it was a message that was well-received And it was a message that was one that got the president the support that he was looking for. And the way that that that message was tactically handled was poorly executed to the point where people are frightened. And they are. I would actually be surprised not only that they didn't support the Republican candidate, but I will be surprised if they come out and vote at all because they are afraid of what might happen at the polling places because of the ICE presence. And, Mally, we saw in Texas—or, sorry, nationwide, actually, since 2018, I believe, Republicans getting a bigger and bigger share of the Hispanic vote. That is believed to be swinging back towards Democrats this year. How critical is that going to be in very tight races like the Senate race between Cruz and Paxton, the governor's race between Hinojosa and Abbott? Well, as you said, Trump was able to win these supporters, win these votes because of border security and the economy. And he is now losing those same supporters because of immigration and the economy. And this isn't something Democrats can look at and say, well, this actually means they liked Biden's immigration policy. No, they hated it. They hated the chaos of Biden's immigration policy. They just also hate the chaos that ICE is inflicting in communities across this country. The only president who's had a pretty steady approval rating on immigration in our modern lifetime has been Obama, and that's because he balanced both we need a secure border, but we need a pathway to citizenship for those who've been in our community a long time and who are good, outstanding folks. And the big thing here, too, is we talk a lot about the Senate race, but this is going to have a lot of repercussions in the House race Because the Texas state legislator, when they drew those districts, drew them based on Trump's map in 2024, thinking that these shifts with the Hispanic vote were going to stay in Republicans' favor. Well, now it looks like the gerrymander might be a dummy-mander because those folks aren't supporting Republicans like they supported Trump. So all those districts they thought were Trump plus 10 are competitive. What can Republicans do, Lisa, to get back those Hispanic voters that they are losing now in the next two years, given that Trump is going to be a lame duck and therefore less likely to listen? The Iran war shows no sign of ending. The trade war tariffs shows no sign of ending. All of that impacting the economy. And, you know, this this immigration enforcement looks like it would continue as well. Is there anything that Republicans in Congress can do to to shore up those voters going into the next election cycle? I think Mally made a great point that the coalition that went with Trump that's now moving away from Trump is still very much in a mobile place. So if Democrats get elected and win back the House and they don't, in fact, enact policies that will make a change and a difference in affordability so that people have access to the things that they're looking for. They run the same exact risk going forward and Republicans will actually seize on that opportunity to talk about the fact that Democrats came back to power in the House and potentially the Senate and have not done anything. And Republicans will continue to talk about the policies that they're moving forward that they want to see happen. So they'll be speaking to that same voter sect and they'll win them back in 2028. I do want to talk about Arab-American and Muslim voters. We've touched on Michigan briefly. that people always look to Michigan when talking about those two groups because of the big community in Dearborn, Michigan but of course there are large communities all across the country. Back in 2024 it was really interesting and that was sort of in the throes of the war in Gaza and Kamala Harris lost a lot of Arab and Muslim uh voters, Arab-American Muslim voters because of that war in Gaza. Now we have Trump saying blatantly Islamophobic things on the campaign trail. He keeps referring to Abdullah Syed as Mohammed, which is his middle name, kind of a dog whistle there. He's calling him a jihadist. How much, Mally, do you think that is having an impact with those Arab American and Muslim voters who came over to his side in 2024? Well, Gaza was an anchor for the campaign. I was on the Harris campaign and every event we did, we were protested at. And it was something that just created this huge drop off in the Arab community. And I mean, I was on the campaign in North Carolina, which doesn't have a huge Arab population. It was just also a huge drop off for young voters and progressives who thought the Biden administration was on the wrong side of this issue. He had, the Trump administration had an opportunity to potentially win those voters, especially once they had got the ceasefire. But their language, which is just, as you said, blatantly Islamophobic, trying to take down Al Sayed, has meant that they have tarnished that, not just in Michigan, they've tarnished it nationally, because those comments he's made about al-Sayed don't stay in Michigan, that they are a signal to all Muslim voters across this country that the Republican Party does not see a place for them in this country. But clearly the president sees this as red meat for his base. And it's not just him. I mean, Mike Rogers, who's running in a very tight race, hasn't been as blatant as Trump. But during the last debate, he questioned al-Sayed's loyalty to the U.S. He called him a national security threat. So why do Trump and Rogers think that that is a good message to get Republicans out? I think there's still a bit of a fear and the fear that they're playing on is what they think will get people out to the polls to make decisions that they think are the right decision for the for the country. I also think, though, that there's something to be said for the fact that Kamala Harris was a female and running. And I'm not necessarily sure that that voting bloc was is comfortable with the idea of a female being in charge of the White House. Do you think the war in Gaza is still a factor? I mean, we have had a ceasefire in place for a while now, but some 1,400 people have been killed in Gaza, Palestinians, since that ceasefire went into place. And yet it doesn't feel like we're hearing about it much on the campaign trail. We might not be hearing about it, but it's definitely going to be the kind of thing that voters are going to be paying attention to. I think that you'll find that Jewish voters are still paying very close attention to how the U.S. interacts and works with Israel as it relates to what's happening in Gaza, and I think that that's still very much at play and part of the message and the conversation that's happening inside of Homs and then heading towards the polling place. And so much has been made of what Abdel Sayed has said in his race about Israel, not calling it an ally. In an interview with NBC, he was asked what's the bigger threat, Israel or Iran, and he basically put them on the same footing. What do you make of the divisions among Jewish voters over El-Sayed and the accusations against him that he hasn't been willing to try to moderate on that front? Well, you're going to have Republicans who are going to try to use that to amplify this division and say that Democrats who are more critical of Israel are anti-Semitic, though, with that being said, I think if you still look at polling, most Jewish voters are Democratic and a lot of Jewish voters are Democratic, and they are unhappy with Israel. That doesn't mean they don't think Israel should exist, but they're not happy with the Netanyahu government. So I think the right framing for candidates moving forward, and you're going to see this on the presidential end in 2028, because that's going to be a huge debate on our side, is saying that, yes, Israel has a right to exist. Yes, in many ways they are an ally, but that doesn't mean we condone everything they do, And that certainly doesn't mean that we give aid to them that has no strings attached to it. So I think it's balancing that line of not demonizing Israel, especially to the point that it sounds like it becomes anti-Semitic, but also forcefully criticizing the U.S.'s relationship and posture with it. And of course, Mike Rogers has leaned into this as well. Do you liken it to the black vote in Michigan, where, as Mally just said, most Jewish voters are going to go for Democrats anyway? Or is that a true schism among among the Democratic bloc? I think it's well, I think it's going to be hard to say. I think it goes back entirely, especially if you look at Michigan, to the messenger. Right. And I think that the messenger on the Democrat side is far stronger and far better and talking about issues that people want to hear about. And I think Mike Rogers has found himself defending a lot of policies and a president that perhaps is not quite as popular as he hoped it might be. Do you guys think Democrats have done a good enough job in explaining what they can do if they get power in terms of what is the most critical issue across the country, affordability, cost of living, or is it, has it just been bashing Republicans for going along with Trump and his economy? Well, I think they have certainly highlighted three areas that the Trump administration has raised costs, which is health care, the cuts in the big ugly bill to fund tax cuts for the very wealthy, tariffs, which have raised costs on Americans about $1,200 per family, and then the war in Iran, which has spiked gas prices. Now, I think you might have a bit of a disconnect because let's say we win both the House and the Senate, which is a great night. We only control half of the government. So that means we can pass a war powers resolution and say, hey, this war is legal, stop it, and Trump can veto it. We can pass a bill saying, hey, don't institute any more tariffs, and he can veto it. We can pass a bill taking back these health care cuts, and he can veto it. Is this what you're expecting, if Democrats are in charge of both houses, that Trump will just veto, veto, veto nonstop? Yes, I think that, especially on tariffs, especially on the war in Iran. But this affordability crisis, I believe, is going to get worse for Trump before it gets better because we have the war being talked about. It's going to get spike up again. It seems like all sides talk about after the midterms, it's going to get worse. I think after the election, Trump is going to have less of a reason to listen to concerned Republicans about tariffs. And then lastly, the 10 million Americans who are going to lose health care because of the Medicaid cuts haven't even kicked in yet. That's post midterms. So I think President Trump's conundrum on affordability and Republicans conundrum on affordability is all about to get worse. Lisa, we only have about 30 seconds left, but what can Republicans do, especially if they lose power with a lame duck president who is intent on continuing these conflicts, both military and economic? I think the opportunity is tremendous, especially if Democrats come back into power, because I think that they could grow a spine because maybe I don't think so. I think they're still very much fearful of being anti anything that's happening in the White House. But I think the one thing to look at is that Democrats will have an opportunity and they will oversee on the fact that they're going to investigate and investigate and lose the trail and not necessarily pass policies that people are going to want to see happen, regardless of whether or not the president's in power. Yeah, that's a huge question of whether Democrats start working on meaningful legislation or they start on these investigations, subpoenas, even impeachment. Lisa Miller, thank you very much. Molly Smith, really appreciate it. And that's all from the team here in Washington. I want to hand it back to Phil Lavelle in Texas and Al Jazeera's global headquarters in Doha. Yeah, thanks. Remember, you can catch This Is America every weekday, Monday to Friday, 18.30 GMT. Or if you're here in the United States, that is 2.30 p.m. on the East Coast. That's it for this edition. We'll see you again soon when we continue our special midterms coverage. Bye for now.