Detailed Solar Activity Update August 10th 2025! Two M Flares!

James Kaufman, World News Report today, August 10th, 2025. God bless you and yours, no matter where you are in the world. Please subscribe, give us a thumbs up, ring that bell for critical future updates. Ladies and gentlemen, currently today, we're in a geomagnetic disturbance. This was not forecast by NASA or NOAA, although, in my opinion, it should have been. With a huge coronal hole Earth facing, I'm going to jump down to the estimated planetary KP index. Each bar is a three-hour period, a combination of solar winds and plasma hitting Earth. We can see today we've been hit by 12 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance. We're not in storm conditions according to the estimated planetary index. Now, we'll take a look at the other indexes, but the estimated planetary index is exclusively used by NOAA and NASA, and it's been upgraded. Our Boulder KP index shows a very quiet day with three hours of a G2 geomagnetic storm. Moving down to our Fredericksburg index, we see the last nine hours we've been in a geomagnetic disturbance. And finally, our most sensitive, our college KP index, looks like we started out with three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, went into a G2 geomagnetic storm, then a G3 geomagnetic storm, and then peddled back to a G1 geomagnetic storm, and we're waiting on more data. Looking at our GOES X-ray flux, you would think that we were having a busy day. That would be true, but this has all been generated by the same sunspot group that's been giving us X for about a week now. It's going to be AR4168. And let me just say that that sunspot group is now a beta gamma sunspot group, no longer a delta class sunspot group. It has deteriorated. We started the day off about 4 UTC time, a little bit before that, about 3.15 UTC time, and this was a 1.73, the same exact magnitude as this flare was. What a coincidence. Again, that happened just after 3 UTC time. So, last night, around 10.30 p.m. Central Time, this morning, we've had a strong C-class flare, a C8.9 solar flare, almost into M territory, and that was followed up fairly quickly by a stronger M2.26 solar flare, and, well, that one did some strange things and lasted almost an hour, if not longer. And it's still deteriorating into a C-class flare. All right. Earlier, we said about 315. Well, there it is at 312. We had an M1.73, actually. And it came from AR4168, which is now a Beta Gamma sunspot group, no longer a Delta-class sunspot group. And then we had a very powerful C-flare that's not showing up here. That was a C8.9 solar flare that peaked at 1210 UTC time, or about 510 this morning Central Time here in the U.S. It caused some radio degradation, and that's the reason I'm mentioning it. Now, we've just had an M2.26 solar flare. That's going to be generated by Sunspot 4168 as well. Almost, well, at least headed around the far limb and, well, that one occurred or at least peaked at 1500 UTC time, which means what? Well, that means about 10 a.m. this morning, central time here in the U.S. All right, taking a look at HMI Intensogram, we see 4168 headed around the far limb. Now Earth's geomagnetic connection to the Sun is on that far limb, so some of these flares may be geo-effective towards Earth. We have a bunch of simple sunspot groups. Let's see, we have three, six, eight of them it looks like, and we have additional sunspot groups that I thought would be named by now and look like they need to be named. We also have another beta-gamma sunspot group directly earth-facing, 4172, which will be our new problem. Although it does look like 4178 and 4169 are becoming more complex, and the sunspot group coming around the limb looks like it's going to be fairly complex as well. Now, I would expect these solar disturbances. And solar storms to continue for a few days. Because of this large coronal hole that's still Earth-facing, I would expect them to continue for two or three more days, although that is not what NOAA has forecasted. Currently, we have solar winds right at 600 kilometers per second, give or take. I will show you all that. Here is our M. 2.26 flare, as you can see it pop off right there, 1500 UTC time, AR4168, and here is our new sunspot that should be named by now. Now, LASCO C3 did catch part of one of the three meteor showers that Earth is currently passing through, and I thought I'd show you all what that looked like on LASCO C3. LASCO C3 is obviously only about 150 miles above the surface of Earth, and that's why you're getting that shot of those meteors, supposedly small, tiny grains of sand that light up as they hit the atmosphere. All right, over to our D-region absorption prediction center. This is actually the C-class flare. There was some radio alternation here and degradation. And I thought that we would at least mention it. It actually looks a little bit stronger than you think it might. Then we had this very long term. Now watch this. Starting at about 1505 here and continuing as far as that allows to continue, which is 1640. So that was a, and is a, long-term M-class solar flare. But it is coming from that far limb and may or may not be geo-effective towards Earth. All right, take a look at NOAA's KP Index Breakdown, August 10th, 11th, and 12th, 2025. They had today, August 10th, all as 3.3s. I would expect to see, well, a lot higher KP Index numbers. With 600 kilometer per second winds, which very well should be stronger than that, but that's where they're at currently, and they have, it looks like, the weakest G1 possible, going to happen between about 1500 and 1800 UTC time, and then they go back into absolutely nothing going on on the 11th or 12th, although it's pretty obvious to most people. The solar winds should not be letting up for the next couple of days, and you would think that there could be some geomagnetic disturbances and even some light storms. I heard that there was Aurora Borealis last night. All right, over to the SWPC Prediction Center. Well, they're not expecting any type of CMEs inbound. You can see that Strongest plasma they're looking for is about 7 centimeters cubed and much weaker than that following today. And if we move down to solar winds, then we go to the 9th and then today the 10th, they are expecting solar winds at about 600 kilometers per second. That's about what we're seeing. I think one of the highest minutes I saw was about 623 kilometers per second. And they're not expecting this to cause a disturbance or a storm, although, if you recall, our estimated planetary KP index showed 12 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance. 12 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, as you can see, and they are expecting a G1 geomagnetic storm for that next three-hour data point here. So this is all. Unforecasted, unpredicted, although I think we all predicted it properly, right? All right, taking a look at DSCOVR Real-Time Solar Wind Satellite, our newest of our two solar wind satellites. First off, I'd like to mention our shields are down, so it doesn't take much to get us going. Now, we do have some anomalies here. Look at these two points up here for just two minutes. We had a 25.15 and a 30.67, although we didn't see a geomagnetic storm anywhere on the KP index. Along with that, I'd like for you to look at the solar winds here at 839 kilometers per second. Must be an anomaly, I would say, but temperatures also spike for that one-minute period. And really, technically, it's three minutes. That almost breaks the space weather threshold there. The next one, in fact, does at 20.15. And the next one at 30.67. The 839 kilometers per second blows me away. I have seen solar winds that fast before, but not for one minute. So I don't know if that's bad data. We'll see if it's also on ACE. The rest of the day, it doesn't even break through the space where the threshold plasma was, and solar winds have stayed pretty much below 600, minus a couple of anomalies. Let's see if we can grab one or two of them. There's a 654 there, and a 600 there. Looks like we'll have a 608 there. But most of the day, we stayed below 600 kilometers per second. What shouldn't have even caused a geomagnetic disturbance if our shields were up, which they're not. So just about anything, anything hitting Earth is going to cause a geomagnetic disturbance and or storm. Over to our ACE Real-Time Space Weather Satellite. We see first off our shields are basically down. We do see those same two anomalies right here and here, the 25 and the 30, and we see the solar winds up here over 800 kilometers per second, and I really don't think that this lines up with that, but we do see very high proton temperatures shortly thereafter. Basically, solar winds have stayed below 600 kilometers or just at 600 kilometers all day long. Minus just a few anomalies, and plasma has stayed down in the 2, 3, 4 range all day long. Minus of two minutes, two minutes of data here. Temperatures are slightly elevated, very slightly elevated. All right, taking SDO and taking a look at the back of our star. Looks like we still have five sunspot groups to talk about. 006, 007, 008, and 011, and 012 here. 12 and 11 are here, and we saw the others yesterday. The 006 is probably, since this is a day and a half old, takes them a day and a half to put a composite together, probably the sunspot group that we see coming around right now that should already be named. All right over to SDO HMI magnetogram 4168 by Felicia. Let's hope it's gotten further around the limb which we know it has. We have that reverse polarity sunspot here with negative over positive in the northern hemisphere and of course that's the group we're watching. It's become a I believe it's 4178 and it's become a beta gamma sunspot group trying to become more complex headed towards a delta class sunspot and of course there's our friend that we keep talking about coming around the limb that needs to be named. I want y'all to see what I'm seeing here. This is This is taken this morning at 6:06 Central Time. Large coronal hole, directly Earth-facing. I'm very surprised. I was expecting winds at about 650, which we did see 654, but just for a minute or two, most of the winds have stayed under 500 kilometers per second. We do see AR4168 parting the far limb, and we see a new complex sunspot coming around the limb. And this is our new, well, beta gamma sunspot group here. And I guess we must mention that this looks like a coronal hole as well at 284 angstroms. Take a look at the European Space Agency's Euphoria. They haven't changed it as they don't work Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. So it's exactly what we saw yesterday and completely incorrect in every way. We will take a look at the Germans information. They seem to have pretty good information. All right, over to the Germans. KP index, they're not reporting any of this as a geomagnetic disturbance, although our NOAA estimated planetary NASA estimated planetary index is saying that we have 12 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance here. So, I don't know what their, well, forecast is, but they reported no disturbance or storm whatsoever today. Taking a look at our solar wind speed, they have it pegged at 544 kilometers per second, nothing that would bring us into a G1 geomagnetic storm, and you can see plasmas down here in the 1 to 3 centimeters cubed range. Currently at 2.86, so I don't know where NOAA and NASA came up with 12 hours of a geomagnetic disturbance, and I don't know why they didn't forecast it with the coronal hole Earth facing, and why the coronal hole is not spewing faster winds than 544.3 kilometers per second. Again, one would expect, one would expect. At least 650 kilometers per second out of a coronal hole that was missing that much canopy. All right, we're coming off of a couple of watch days. We have more coming up. I believe that the 14th, 15th could be a problem as far as an uptick in earthquake and solar activity. And also... Around the 20th and 21st, so 14th, 15th, 20th, 21st, although I believe that while Earth is on the busy side of our solar system, we're going to see an overall uptick in solar activity and volcanic activity the entire six months it's on the busy side. You know, some of the planets take 900 years to orbit the sun. Let's get back to where we were today. Currently, we have a geomagnetic connection to Pluto, Mercury, Saturn, Neptune, and Eris. We'll lose our Mercury's connection, and we'll look for the 14th, 15th, 20th, 21st, and we'll come up with some more watch dates very soon for you guys. With that said, God bless each and every one of you guys. If y'all can, help the channel out with a super thanks, super chat. I don't insist that you do, like all the other channels, before they answer any questions. I'll answer any question that I'm able to with as accurate of an answer as I can find. And I hope y'all share our video. Subscribe if you haven't. 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