Four Surprising Changes at China's Fifth Plenum Signal Xi's Waning Power

But when it comes to CCP politics, the surface really rarely tells us the whole story. And once we look beneath it, the picture becomes much more complicated and interesting and revealing. So what I did is that I compared the Fifth Plenum communique with those from previous plenums, and I found something extraordinary, extraordinarily interesting. Okay, so some of the most important political signals aren't in what the communique says. They are in what it no longer says. So there are four striking changes. Let me go through them one by one. The first is that Xi Jinping's signature political slogans have disappeared. And this is perhaps the biggest surprise. Now, you know, for years, the CCP has relied on a set of political slogans to reinforce Xi's supreme authority. And they are commonly known by the shorthand 2442. The two establishes, four consciousnesses, four confidences, and the two upholds. In simple terms, they demand absolute loyalty to Xi Jinping as the party's core leader. Allegiance to his political ideology and obedience to the authority of the Party Central Committee. So together, these slogans have served as the ideological foundation of Xi Jinping's one-man rule and his dominance over the CCP. Now look what happened. Let's compare the communiques from the third and fourth plenums. So the third plenum communique stated this, it said party members must deeply understand the decisive significance of the two establishes, strengthen the four consciousnesses, reinforce the four confidences, uphold the two upholds, and maintain a strong awareness of the need to guide social revolution through the party's self-revolution. And then at last year's fourth plenum, its communique said this, it says the entire party must deeply understand the decisive significance of the two establishes, strengthen the four consciousnesses, reinforce the four confidences and uphold the two upholds, and maintain strategic resolve. So you see the entire 2442 formulation appeared in both communiques, but in the fifth Nothing. The entire 2442 formulation has disappeared. Not a single mention. Now think about the significance of that. Cai Qi, who oversees the party's propaganda apparatus, has repeatedly promoted the two establishes as the most important political achievement for Xi Jinping. Yet this supposedly historic achievement is now missing from the party's most important collective political statement. So does this signal a correction in the party's political direction? And more importantly, does it suggest that Xi Jinping's status as the unquestioned supreme leader is coming to an end? I think that's a question we have to ask. And remember, this isn't just some newspaper article or media commentary. This is an official central committee communique. I mean, state media under Cai Qi's influence may continue repeating the 2442 slogans, but a newspaper commentary is one thing. A formal statement issued by the party's central committee is quite another. The political weight is simply not comparable. So if you think that's significant, wait until I see you the second change. All right, the second one is the military and the Chinese people have disappeared from the final appeal. And this one is very intriguing. So we compare the closing paragraph of the fifth plenum communiqué with those of the second, third, and fourth plenums. All three previous communiques ended with exactly the same wording, which is The plenum calls on the entire party, the entire military, and the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country to unite more closely around the party's central committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core. Three communiques. The wording is actually identical. Now, the fifth plenum changed it. This time, it says, the plenum calls on the entire party to unite more closely around the party's central committee. With Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, did you catch that? The military is gone, and so are the Chinese people. Only the party remains. In other words, the plenum is now calling on the party alone to unite around Xi Jinping as its core leader. Not the military, not the Chinese people. Why? Well, remember Mao Zedong famously said, the political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. And the CCP has always claimed that its legitimacy rests on representing and serving the Chinese people. The military and the people are fundamental to the party's claim to power. Yet both have now disappeared from the final appeal to unite around Xi Jinping's leadership. So what are we supposed to make of that? Does that suggest that Xi Jinping's authority over the military and the country is being redefined? Could it mean that his position as the party's core leader no longer automatically translates into unquestioned authority over the military and the Chinese people? We're talking about one of the CCP's most carefully drafted political statement. In a system this centralized, political language is never treated casually. Every word, every phrase matters. Every omission also matters. And when two such important groups suddenly disappear from a formula repeated word for word in three previous plenums or plenum communiques, I don't think we should dismiss it as a simple editing choice. Now, the third change may be even more revealing. This is the fifth plenum communique repeatedly emphasizes something called democratic centralism. And this is the CCP's formal organizational principle, which combines internal party discussion with collective decision-making. And according to the source text, the term appears five times in the Fifth Plenum communiqué. Now, how many times did the Fourth and the Third Plenum Communiques mention it? Zero. Not once. But now, suddenly, democratic centralism is being emphasized repeatedly, and the language is unusually forceful. The communiqué declares that democratic centralism is the party's fundamental organizational principle and leadership system. It calls for greater internal party democracy and stricter implementation of decision-making rules. And here's the sentence that really caught my attention. It significantly demands Better quality internal party democracy, strict compliance with the leadership decision-making procedures, and tighter regulation of how top leaders exercise their authority. Now, let me ask you something. Who is the most powerful top leader in China? Xi Jinping. For years, he has been concentrating more and more power in his own hands. He has weakened collective decision-making and placed himself at the center of virtually every major political decision. But now the Fifth Plenum, or the Fifth Plenum Communiqué, is emphasizing institutional rules, collective procedures, internal party democracy, and restrictions on how top leaders exercise power. Does that sound like a significant change in direction? Well, to me, this looks like the party is signaling a shift away from one-man decision-making, which is what we've seen in the past 14 years. And when you put this together with the disappearance of the 2-4-4-2 slogans and the changes in the closing paragraph, a pattern begins to emerge, which brings us to the fourth change. There is a renewed emphasis on the party constitution. Now, the final unusual change. is that the the communique states the party constitution must serve as the fundamental code of conduct for the entire party. That formulation was absent from the third and fourth plenum communiques. So why suddenly single out the party constitution? Why elevate it to such a prominent position? One China observer raised this question with Ms. Cai Xia, who, you know, she's a former professor at the CCP's Central Party School. And Professor Cai made an important observation. She said that the party constitution doesn't explicitly impose term limits on the top leader, nor does it contain a direct prohibition. against personal dictatorship, but it does establish two fundamental principles, democratic centralism and collective leadership. So now does that sound familiar? Look at the four changes we've just discussed. Xi Jinping's signature 2442 slogans have disappeared. The military and the Chinese people have been removed on the final appeal to unite around Xi's leadership. Democratic centralism is suddenly emphasized five times. And the party constitution is being elevated as the fundamental rule book, or playbook, for the entire party. So all four changes appear to point in the same direction, a renewed emphasis on institutional rules, a return to collective decision making, and a possible correction. I shouldn't say possible, a correction to Xi Jinping's highly centralized personal rule. My interpretation is that the fifth plenum has pushed back against Xi Jinping's concentration of absolute power and may be signaling a return to collective leadership. This communique does not mention anything or give us any hint about Xi Jinping's successor. So what does that mean? I see two possibilities. The first is that the different factions haven't reached an agreement. on a plan or on a successor. They may be still negotiating. They have not reached some kind of compromise over Xi Jinping's immediate future, and they haven't settled on who should replace him, and the question is still up in the air. And the second possibility is very different. A successor may have already been chosen, But the leadership isn't ready to reveal that person publicly. Why keep the identity secret? Well, to preserve the appearance of party unity and continuity, to protect Xi Jinping's prestige, to prevent the outside world from seeing the extent of internal divisions, and perhaps most importantly, to avoid triggering another political confrontation before the transition can be managed. So if the second scenario is correct, Then the fifth plenum is only the beginning. Over the next year, or in the next 12 months, we should begin to see more revealing personnel changes, because whoever is being prepared to succeed Xi Jinping will need time to assemble a leadership team, build political support, and place trusted people in key positions. And that kind of preparation cannot remain invisible forever. It will leave traces, and we will be able to see. So sooner or later, the personnel changes will begin to tell the story. Thank you so much for watching. 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