Why may North Korean troops in Kursk be good news for Ukraine?

Since October, US, Ukrainian and South Korean officials repeatedly said North Korean troops were being sent to Russia. And we now have first reports of actual battles between Ukrainian and North Korean troops, happening in the Russian Kursk region. While at face value the addition of another country's troops to the war may signal a problem for Ukraine, said event might also be good news. If the West can exploit it, of course. This video will shed more light on why and how North Korean troops allegedly first trained in Russia for a short while, possibly to work better with the Russian military machine, and as we know, in recent weeks they have been deployed to the Kursk region in Ukraine. That's where Ukraine managed to take some Russian territory since August. Ukraine currently still holds some 600 square kilometers in Russia, down from the high in early September when it held some 900 square kilometers. Zelensky recently said 11,000 North Korean troops were in the Kursk region, near the border. And a few days ago, first clashes with North Korean fatalities were suggested by Ukraine's officials. US officials earlier said 10,000 North Korean troops were in the Kursk region, not necessarily all at the border. Western estimates were 7 to 8 thousand near the border, with further Ukrainian estimates of 12 to possibly 15 thousand being sent to Russia in total. So far the engagement has been limited, according to Ukrainian officials. It was part of North Korean slash Russian probing attacks, looking for further weaknesses in Ukrainian lines in Kursk. According to US officials, North Korean units are embedded with Russian units and mixed with Russian troops, dressed in Russian uniforms and using Russian equipment, making detail assessments harder. Back in September, when Russia started pushing back on Ukraine's advance in Kursk, it was estimated Russia had committed little under 40,000 troops to said battle. A month later, approximately 50,000 Russian troops were alleged to be containing and pushing Ukrainians back in Kursk. But to dislodge a large Ukrainian force, which used this time to construct some defensive lines inside Russia as well, an even greater force may be needed. Which is maybe why Russia put those North Korean troops into battle. Kursk is, in a way, a safer geopolitical position for Moscow than had North Koreans been actually sent to Ukraine's territory. Russia can still claim North Korean troops are not attacking Ukraine itself. Perhaps an even safer solution would have been had Russia sent North Koreans to other regions bordering Ukraine, like Priyansk and parts of Belgorod region, to serve as pure border guards, freeing up some Russian troops for offensive actions. The fact Russia did not do that may suggest Russia simply lacks enough well trained troops to even do offensive actions on so many fronts. Reassigning simple Russian border guard units to offensive units, while North Korea offered some of its most elite troops, would have been a waste of an opportunity in Moscow's eyes. Of course, the sole fact that Russia is using North Korean troops already points to manpower woes in Russian ranks. 10 or even 15 thousand additional troops mean little operationally, in the grand scheme of things. Yet the geopolitical repercussions for Russia may be quite great. While 2023 was a pretty good year for influx of Russian manpower, by 2024 said influx of fresh soldiers dropped. While the latest figures are not available, it's plausible that the addition of North Korean troops means Russian ability to commit fresh soldiers to the fight has dropped even further. The Kremlin has kept increasing the recruit pay to astronomical sums recently for Russian standards. Without huge monetary lures, very few people would sign a contract with the army. But even money has to start running tight at some point. And the pool of people willing to sign up is also not infinite. Hence the arrival of North Koreans. Russia has surely paid for those troops much, much less. Possibly it pays just for their deployment and transport. Plausibly technology transfer in various areas is what really paid for those troops. Possibly some materials, advanced products and food as well. So in the coming years, North Korea may see many new projects coming up, helped by Russian involvement. Ukraine has recently said it's starting another round of mobilization, helping to add 160,000 more troops to training units in the next three months. Now whether that's gonna pan out or not remains to be seen. But if successful, it would mean Ukraine may see 50,000 new troops per month, once those new troops are trained. If that happens, Ukraine might actually start adding more troops to the front line than Russia. That's something that hasn't happened in a long time. So that's one reason why North Korean troops may be good for Ukraine. Not in themselves, of course, but they can be an indirect sign of good news. Now whether Ukraine can actually keep producing more troops in the long run is another matter. One that we may cover in a separate video. But there is another reason why North Korean troops fighting Ukrainians may be good for Ukraine. It's a clear escalation of the war, politically. Had Russia kept those Korean troops just for guard duty, that would have stirred up less dust. But to have North Korea attack Ukrainian troops, even if it's within the territory of Russia, that may be viewed by western countries as a more serious escalation. Basically, it means various countries could use said events to escalate aid levels to Ukraine as well. In war materials, sure, but theoretically also in manpower. NATO countries could say, well, now that third party troops are attacking Ukraine's troops, other third party troops can enter Ukraine as well. And, at the very least, defend the inner regions of Ukraine from saboteurs, man the border near Transnistria region of Moldova, which is Russian held, watch the borders between Hungary and Poland for potential deserters, and even man the border facing Belarus. Since 2022, no Russian attack has come from Belarus. Even Russian airstrikes are not really using Belarusian airspace anymore. All that could, in theory, free up upward of 100 thousand Ukrainian troops, to be sent to the meat grinder that is eastern Ukraine. All without having NATO troops face Russian troops directly. Of course, all that is just a theory. In practice, the political willpower to do any of that may not be there. And certainly, after Trump's victory in the elections, the likelihood of US military aid continuing at the same or even greater pace may be in question. So, North Korean troops can both be a sign of good news and a potential opportunity to strengthen the Ukrainian position. But in reality, whether any of that will actually matter remains to be seen. We also just released a Patreon and member exclusive video on the topic of what if the US isolates itself. If you find that interesting, check it out.