The FIRST-Ever Car Buying Probability Map: Likely Cheapest States for Every Brand!

The Homework Guy probability zones map, where the best car deals are most likely to be found around the country. [music] Hey everybody, Kevin Hunter here, the Homework Guy, and today we're unveiling something we've never shown on this channel before, but it's information we picked up over the last couple of years of our car buying service. [music] We thought you'd love to hear it. It is the Homework Guys probability zones map. Most people want to know, what's the [music] cheapest state to buy a car? But here's the truth. That question is actually quite flawed. There is no single cheap estate for every brand and model. There just isn't. However, that doesn't mean there aren't some significant clues out there. What there is, and we've learned this by studying the market tendencies across the United States, [music] it's something way more useful. Oh yeah, we have a map that shows you where the odds tilt in your favor. If you want the highest probability of getting a better out the door price right now, this video is for you. And before we dive in, if you haven't already done it, make sure you follow us on Tik Tok at the homeworkgua. We post fast, [music] powerful tips every day. And if you join early, you may win a free texting package with Liz to help you shop for your next car much smarter. All right, let's get the amazing Elizabeth in here and let's get right to it. First, what are probability zones? We've created the probability zones map because after negotiating new and used car deals nationwide, we have zeroed in on where the best deals can be found. And we wanted to share that with you do-it-yourself car buyers out there. The old idea of the cheapest state just doesn't match how car pricing actually works. Car prices don't magically drop at state borders. Instead, prices are shaped by sales tax, registration fees, dealer density, and competition, inventory flow, local demand, shipping costs, and manufacturer incentives. All of that adds up to the probability of getting a good deal. Not a guarantee, of course, but a measurable advantage worth knowing about. Exactly. A buyer in the right zone who knows their OTD price and follows our homework guy steps has a far better chance of getting a fair deal than someone shopping blind in the wrong market zone. Now, let's move on to the 15 numbered states. On your screen right now, you'll see the map with 15 numbered states. These states represent the regions where map patterns consistently show better buying conditions. Let's go through the numbers real quick. Numbered number one, Oregon. Number two, Washington. Three, Idaho. Four, Montana. Five North Dakota. Six, Minnesota. Seven Wisconsin, eight Iowa, nine Illinois, 10 Missouri, 11 Oklahoma, 12 Texas, 13 Tennessee, 14, North Carolina, and 15 New Hampshire. These 15 states form the backbone of the probability zones that we're talking about. Now, let's group them because each group behaves a little differently. >> So, here are the four probability zone groups. Zone group A is the tax advantage zones. That's Oregon, Montana, New Hampshire, states 1, 4, and 15. These states are a dream from the tax standpoint. No sales tax or extremely low taxes and minimal fees. Montana, Oregon, and New Hampshire sit at the top of the list for low tax burden, which makes the OTD math a lot cleaner. But, and we always say this, a dealer can still mark up a car. Low tax doesn't guarantee a deal. It just lowers your baseline cost. >> All right. Zone group B, high competition Midwest states. That's Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. That's 6, seven, 8, 9, and 10 on the probability map. This is the heartland of value. The Midwest gives buyers incredibly good odds because dealership competition is fierce. Inventory moves quickly, cost of living is lower. Manufacturers push strong incentives here. So, if you're shopping Toyota, Honda, Subaru, Volkswagen, Mazda, Ford, Chevy, Buick, or GMC, this is your prime hunting ground. >> Here is zone group C, the volume zones in the south. Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, states 11, 12, 13, 14. This region is all about volume. Texas alone has more big box, high volume dealerships than many states combined. More volume means more flexibility, more inventory, more deals that need to be moved, and more room for negotiation. And Tennessee and North Carolina, there are sneaky good markets. There's lots of competition, strong incentives, and fair fee structures. If you're shopping Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Lexus, luxury brands, or trucks, the South treats buyers very well. >> This brings us to zone group D, neutral influence zones like Washington, Idaho, and North Dakota. That's two, three, and five. Washington, Idaho, and North Dakota are what we call neutral zones. Not bad, not amazing, just vary case by case. Some deals are excellent, some are not. Population density plays a role, and rural inventory swings can affect pricing. So, if you live in one of these states, don't expect anything exceptional. You'll likely have to shop outside your area to find truly great car deals. >> Here are the brand by brand, best probability states. So, here's the fun part with each brand. This is where the map really shines. We're going to give you which numbered states give you the best odds for lower pricing on each car brand. On screen, you'll see the legend, and we'll walk you through each category. All right. Mass market brands, Toyota. The best deals for Toyota, states 7, 8, 12, and 14. That's Wisconsin, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina. For Honda, the best states are number 7, 8, 14, and 15. That's Wisconsin, Iowa, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The best deals for Subaru can be found in states 6, 7, 8, and 15. That's Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. For Mazda, states 7, 8, and 14. That's Wisconsin, Iowa, and North Carolina. For Hyundai Kia deals, we're looking at states 11, 12, 13, and 14. Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and North Carolina. For Nissan, states 12, 13, 14 on the map, that's Texas, Tennessee, and North Carolina. >> Truck and SUV brands for Ford 6, 10, and 12. That's Minnesota, Missouri, and Texas. Chevrolet and GMC 6, 10, 11, and 12. That's Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. For Ram, Dodge, and Jeep, 10, 11, and 12, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. You notice Texas comes up every time with trucks. for import and luxury brands that start with Volkswagen states 91 12 and 14. Illinois, Texas, and North Carolina. For Volvo, 91, 12, and 14, same zones as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, and Audi 9, 12, and 15. Illinois, Texas, and New Hampshire. For Lexus 12, 14, and 15, that's Texas, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. For Acura 8, 14, and 15, that is Iowa, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. And finally, not brand specific, if you live in Florida and don't mind a little travel north, you'll want to consider shopping in Georgia because shopping around home will have you paying exorbitant fees and add-ons. Now, here's why all of this works. The probability zones work because they reflect the real forces shaping car pricing. These are not myths, not clickbait, just patterns we've watched intently the last couple of years. things like lower taxes, lower dealer fees, more dealers in the same market, higher inventory flow, manufacturers rewarding certain regions, lower transport or distribution costs, and less pricing pressure from local demand. When you combine those factors, you get regions where buyers consistently pay less if they aren't clueless and they follow the homework guy steps. >> So, here's how you use the map, and this is the most important part. The map is not an excuse to hop in your car and drive 500 miles away without doing your homework. This map helps you target the right zones for written out the door quotes. So, step one, pick your brand. Step two, look at the numbered states with the best odds. Step three, request 6 to 10 out the door quotes in writing. Step four, make the dealers closest to you compete with those better OTDs. Step five, only visit a dealership after you secure the out the door price that you want. And that's how Homework Eye fans win. >> And if you actually do want to go to one of those outofstate deals, fine. But always use the out ofstate OTDs to beat up on your local dealers. >> Correct. >> So, some final homework guide tips. This map doesn't replace smart negotiation. It enhances it. A buyer who follows the OTD price, the fees, the taxes, and the brand's probability zones is a buyer who cannot be manipulated. Dealers kind of hate that, but we love it. >> And if you want more help, head to our website. The full blog version with the map is posted right now at the homeworkgu.com. >> Or skip the dealer games completely. Our Homework Guy car buying service will do the out the door quote work for you. It's fast, simple, and we do this every day. We handle new and used car deals, lease buyouts, and tradeins from start to finish. That's a flat rate service around a,000 bucks. And our clients routinely save four times that or more. Quite often it's a lot more. And if you're halfway decent at math, it makes a lot of sense to go that route. Just go to the homeworkguide.com, click the big red button on the homepage to get started. We'll help you buy smart and never get taken for a ride. If you found this video helpful, give it a thumbs up and share it with your friends. And drop a comment down below. We love to hear your car buying success stories because they inspire and protect the entire Homework Guy community. >> And to our long-term viewers and subscribers out there, you guys rock. God bless you all. I'm Kevin Hunter, the Homework Guy, signing off in behalf of Alex Stevens, our auto expert, the amazing Elizabeth, our master negotiator, and the entire hassle-free Homework Guy car buying team. In closing, I'm reminding you, don't get taken every time. Do your homework before you buy. Stick with us a moment as we scroll through some of our recent five-star Google reviews. Thank you for watching. to be handy.