Is the PLA Turning on Xi—Or Is This Political Theater?

We started seeing signs of large-scale troop movements across multiple regions in China after Zhang Youxia's arrest. So let me play you the second clip. So these videos show missile launch vehicles, tanks, and armored vehicles moving along highways different parts of China, like Yixing, Xuzhou, Taizhou, which are all in Jiangsu area under the Eastern Theater Command. And then we've also seen footages from Guangdong, Fujian, Anhui, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, even Tianjin. And they also show heavy activity like military trucks, troop carriers, engineering vehicles, and even armed helicopters. Some clips even show fully-armed soldiers on city streets with temporary nighttime assemblies and road closures. And then February 2nd, there's a clip showing Guangxi. They show large envoys of military trucks racing down highways. Public information shows that the units stationed in Guangxi belong to the PLA Southern Theater Command's 74th and 75th Group Armies. All right, so the obvious question is, who authored these movements? Was it Xi Jinping's order? If commanders across theater commands and service branches have not publicly declared support for Xi Jinping, how could Xi Jinping personally trust them to authorize such large-scale cross-regional deployments? So some people offer their opinions. Former PLA Navy Lieutenant Colonel Yao Chen, he analyzed the videos and his argument is simple. He said this is a nationwide synchronized deployment and deployment on this scale would be impossible without coordination across multiple chains of command. And they are unlikely to have been ordered directly by Xi Jinping. And he goes even further. He claims that Beijing is now effectively surrounded. According to him, units from the Northern Theater Command, Shandong, and the Central Theater Command, I should say, have been mobilized in a way that will cut off Xi Jinping's routes of retreat. And the whole idea is similar to encirclement, which is a strategy the CCP has discussed in Taiwan war planning. And he's not alone. Many people echo this view. They claim that forces loyal to Zhang Youxia are moving to Beijing and are surrounding the capital, waiting for a signal to move against Xi's loyalists. There are even whispers that commanders in the Central and Eastern Theater Commands are coordinating with Liu Yuan, who is said to have become a de facto leader of anti-Xi forces. They say General Liu Yuan is coordinating between the party elders and then the two commanders who are loyal to Hu Jintao. So they are the commanders in the Central and Eastern Theater Command. And General Liu is known to be close to Zhang Youxia, and both are princelings. So according to this narrative, these deployments were approved by a small decision and coordination body made up of senior CCP leaders, or I should say past and present standing committee members. It was a seven-person decision and coordination body, and it's led by former Premier Wen Jiabao, and that the purpose is to pressure Xi Jinping to cooperate, not to overthrow him yet. They want Xi Jinping to turn over the two generals, alive or dead. But so far, Xi Jinping hasn't cooperated. So this narrative would explain why we're seeing movement and pressure, but no open confrontation, because the two sides are still negotiating. So here's the key question. Will this actually or eventually turn into a coup or rebellion, the way many people are hoping? Let's bring this back to reality. There's a political commentator by the name of Du Wen, now based in Europe. He recently launched what he called a rescue action for families of rebelling PLA soldiers. His idea is to help protect and extract families of soldiers if they decide to go against the regime. He said the response was strong and that active duty PLA personnel, even at high levels, have contacted him. Du Wen has relayed what a group army commander told him about inside the PLA right now. A group army commander has told him the real situation on the ground inside the PLA. He's blunt. He said an armed rebellion in China is extremely difficult. According to this commander, the biggest obstacle is that generals don't actually control large numbers of troops that they can move directly. He said the only unit he could command without intermediaries was his guard company, just over a hundred soldiers. To move real forces, a group army commander has to go through division commanders, regimental commanders, battalions, and company commanders. The chain is long. Not everyone is loyal. With today's communications, one leak blows the entire operation, and there's almost no room for secrecy. There's also a logistics problem. The PLA tightly controls ammunition. Even if you have weapons, large-scale ammo supplies are not stored locally. You need cross-province and cross-theater coordination, which is nearly impossible to hide. That's why he said rebellion at the theater command level is extremely difficult. But he did say this. He did say, if Xi Jinping personally showed up for an inspection, an attack would happen, or he said an attack could happen in a moment of opportunity. But that's the point. It would require a rare, unpredictable opening. It's not something you can plan and execute across multiple theater commands. He also said everyone in the military is now being forced to declare loyalty to the Party Central and to Xi Jinping, not just verbally, but through written pledges, guarantees, and ideological reports. But what people are doing is privately, they say they are willing to support Xi Jinping, but formally or publicly, they refuse. They don't want to make public statements to show their support. The reason is they fear retaliation from Zhang Youxia's remaining network, which is formidable. And he said this quiet refusal is widespread. It has left Xi Jinping and the political commissars at every level feeling embarrassed and alarmed. And he said, that's why you're not seeing public loyalty statements from officers in the media. And the commander also explained why Zhang Youxia still casts such a long shadow. He controlled real power for decades, from group army commander to military region commander, to head of the CMC's equipment development department, to vice chairman of CMC. Every one of those posts controlled careers, promotions, and resources. And anyone he promoted or worked with, or anyone promoted by his people, is now labeled part of Zhang Youxia's network. And this network is extensive. And according to his assessment, he said, over 60% of rank and file soldiers and more than 80% of CCP military officers sympathize with and support Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, the two fallen generals. Even if that number is exaggerated, the direction of sentiment is clear. The resistance inside the PLA is real and deep. And he's also said that many of General Zhang's former subordinates have been ordered to take leave and others have requested leave. And those requests have been approved, but no one is allowed to transfer out of the military. So here's the bottom line. Those troop movements are very unlikely to be open rebellion by theater commands. That would be suicidal and almost guaranteed to fail. So what we're seeing is either coordinated PLA moves by the anti-Xi factions through people like Liu Yuan and Wen Jiabao, the central committee's coordination and decision party at the very top. So either there are coordinated moves by them or random acts that look more like repositioning and internal turbulence. Either way, it's not a coordinated coup or a real war mobilization. Now, having said that, we need to consider one possibility. What if some of these military movements are staged for show? In other words, they're not real war preparation. They're not coup, but theater meant to intimidate people sent down from Beijing. Multiple sources have said that Xi Jinping has dispatched working teams to different theater commands to pressure commanders into publicly endorsing his decision to take down the two generals. So far, no one has gone on record to support that decision. Instead, commanders and political officers are using all kinds of excuses to delay, to dodge, and to push back. Now, these working teams technically represent Xi Jinping, but they're still officials, and officials are human. So they think about their own safety, their own careers, and their own political future as well. Now, think about this. If a working team shows up at a command headquarters, and everything is quiet, everything is very peaceful, no activity, no drills, no movement, that's one atmosphere. But if they arrive and see the command center buzzing, troops mobilizing, armored vehicles moving, artillery visible, live fire drills underway, which scene is more intimidating? Obviously, the second. So one interpretation is that some of these movements and exercises are being initiated locally, not because war is coming, but to create an atmosphere of force and readiness to signal, don't push too hard, don't cross certain lines. In other words, this isn't about overthrowing Beijing. It's about raising the psychological cost of Xi Jinping's own voice. It's a way for local commanders to say, without saying it out loud, we're not as weak, isolated, or compliant as you think. Don't push too hard. And that fits where we're seeing so far. Pressure from the center, resistance on the ground, movement without open rebellion. So where does that leave us? My view is this. The military movements we've seen across different regions are like a combination of several dynamics we just talked about. Coordinated move from the top to pressure Xi Jinping, resistance on the ground, signals sent to the working teams, and internal repositioning.