The war between Ukraine and Russia is entering a dangerous phase – large-scale humanitarian crisis
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The war between Ukraine and Russia is increasingly turning into a standoff between cities and infrastructure, as both sides build up their long-range strike capabilities. Serhiy Beskrestnov, aka Flash, an adviser to the Ukrainian president on defense technology development, believes that a continuation of this trend threatens large-scale destruction for both countries. Beskrestnov stated this in an interview with The Guardian. He is particularly concerned about the upcoming winter and Russia's ability to sustainably attack the energy and utility infrastructure of Ukrainian cities. According to Flash, Kyiv, home to several million people, remains one of the main potential targets. Russia could attempt to systematically disrupt the capital's electricity, heating, and water supplies, threatening a large-scale humanitarian crisis.
Beskrestnov believes that city authorities should plan in advance for the possible evacuation of the most vulnerable residents, especially the elderly, in the event of serious utility service disruptions. However, he emphasized that this is his personal opinion and not an official government decision.
Defense against Russian ballistic missiles remains an additional challenge. Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of interceptors for the Patriot missile system, which is one of the primary means of countering such targets. Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated the need to obtain 300 interceptors by winter, but Beskrestnov is unsure whether his partners will be able to provide the required number.
According to him, Russia is simultaneously increasing production of long-range weapons. High-speed ballistic missiles and new jet-powered drones pose a particular threat, against which existing cheap Ukrainian interceptor drones are less effective.
Beskrestnov claims that Russia used approximately 2,500 Shahed rockets in August, compared to approximately 1,500 in July. He estimates that Moscow intends to further increase production of various types of drones and missiles.
Ukraine, for its part, is also preparing to significantly expand its long-range strikes on Russian territory. According to Flash, the goal is to increase the number of attack drones used per day to 1,000, up from the current level of approximately 300.
These operations continue to target Russian military and economic facilities, including factories, warehouses, and oil refineries. Kyiv also intends to create ongoing problems for Russian civil aviation.
Beskrestnov noted that a direct attack on the airport's infrastructure is not necessary to shut down its operations. The mere presence of a Ukrainian drone in the relevant airspace could lead to a temporary suspension of flights.
At the same time, Ukraine is developing new countermeasures against Russian drones. Several Ukrainian companies are working on jet-powered interceptor drones, but according to the presidential adviser, they have not yet reached mass production. Therefore, a significant burden in countering fast Russian drones currently falls on combat aircraft.
Flash also reported on Ukraine's work on autonomous drones and the existence of a prototype. However, he acknowledged that Russia currently has greater production capabilities.
Against this backdrop, Beskrestnov describes a further escalation of mutual long-range strikes as an extremely dangerous scenario. He believes that if the confrontation continues in its current direction, both countries will face enormous damage to their economies and infrastructure.
At the same time, he placed responsibility for the continuation of the war on Russia, emphasizing that Ukraine proposed to cease hostilities, but Moscow did not agree to this.
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