Ukraine increased long-range strikes on Russia: marketplaces and refineries, drone sites
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Ukraine has significantly expanded the scale and intensity of strikes on Russian territory, covering not only a larger number of targets but also directions, as well as covering ever greater distances, compared to 2025. More details about this can be found in the new material of the joint project Obozrevatel and the group “Information Resistance”. Since 2022, Ukraine has gradually expanded its capabilities to strike deep into Russia. And as of today, we can say that even the most protected areas – for example, the Moscow region – are no longer among such locations .
For many, the strikes on Moscow and the region are not perceived as a direct impact on industrial zones, but solely in the context of reputational losses. Although this is a mistake caused by a misunderstanding of the structure of Russian logistics and production capabilities in a number of industries.
On the night of September 20, Ukraine carried out a large-scale airstrike on the Moscow region, damaging the local oil refinery in Kapotno . Moscow authorities claimed that one of the most massive strikes on the region was carried out using 1,600 drones, but this data is unlikely to be true. Russian official sources often overestimate the actual number of weapons used by Ukraine by 30% or more.
Moscow Refinery is an enterprise that processes about 11.6–14 million tons of oil per year, supplying a significant part of the Moscow fuel market and the needs of residents of both the capital and the region.
Relatively speaking, the damage that was shown and announced in open sources, according to the most modest estimates, costs from $30 million to $150 million. Given that this is the main supplier of fuel for consumers in Moscow and the region, the significance of this damage is increasing not only in financial and economic terms, but also, as noted above, in reputational terms. What is the cost of a Ukrainian long-range strike drone ? On average, depending on the modification, it ranges from $15 thousand to $50 thousand. In rare cases, it can exceed $100 thousand. But in general, the average pricing policy, let’s call it that, is quite understandable. And then there is the degree of damage that the enemy suffers as a result of each such raid.
Here, in my opinion, it should be noted right away that Russia spends from $30 thousand on intercepting each means of destruction – this is the minimum price of an anti-aircraft guided missile and even the provision of one mobile fire group per day. That is, even approximately intercepting one Ukrainian drone costs the ROV at least $30 thousand . At the same time, on average, 2–3 or more anti-aircraft missiles can be spent on intercepting one target. Thus, if drones with a total cost of about $1 million are launched towards Russia, Russia’s costs for intercepting them could reach not just $2–3 million, but more. The average cost of repairing any refinery, especially when it comes to damage to such installations as AVT-6 and others, can exceed $10 million. In addition to repairs, we take into account the loss of processing of at least 140 thousand barrels of oil products per day, not to mention the consequences of damage to oil pipelines, tanks and auxiliary equipment.
Downtime in the processing of 140 thousand barrels of oil per day is losses within 24 hours in the amount of up to $10 million! That is, such strikes not only cause situational damage, but also continue to cause losses of tens of millions of dollars to the Russian economy every day, until the repairs are completed. An economy that is focused on replenishing the budget aimed at the war against Ukraine.
A month of downtime at a large oil refinery in Russia could result in losses of over $300 million! Ukrainian strikes are the depletion of Russian air defense, damage and disabling of key production facilities, the most vulnerable and sensitive to destruction and damage, as well as the creation of an internal crisis – both in the economy, budget formation issues, and in the banking sector.
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