Russia attacks Europe from merchant ships; bloody battle in the Mediterranean Sea

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Russia may be considering various ways to pressure European countries not to support Ukraine. However, such plans are far from always aligned with actual capabilities. Technically, Russians could launch drones from merchant ships against European countries, but whether this would actually happen is a big question. Military expert Ivan Stupak, who served in the Security Service of Ukraine from 2004 to 2015, told Unian.

"Firstly, all this information is sometimes verified, sometimes semi-verified, and sometimes just rumors. Therefore, even the world's best intelligence agencies don't always have 100% verified information. Secondly, it's technically feasible. Launching such drones isn't a problem at all. We've seen this in Germany. Technically, it's feasible without any problems," Stupak noted.

At the same time, the expert noted that an important question arises: why would the Russians conduct such launches? But most importantly, it's important to consider that we're talking about the Mediterranean Sea. "You're doing this in the Mediterranean, and the Mediterranean is a puddle. Are you trying to hide there from the Italian, Spanish, or Greek navies? So, if there's a national detention directive, these ships will be detained. They're probably counting on launching them off the coast of Africa, for example, in Tunisian territorial waters. Then, detaining them will be very difficult. But then, if this ship exits through the Strait of Gibraltar, I think the Spanish could detain it because it's under Spanish jurisdiction," Stupak added. Thus, in his opinion, there are many nuances that call into question whether a possible operation to launch drones from shipping containers in the Mediterranean against countries such as Spain, France or Italy has been fully thought out. "There is indeed fear, but Spain isn't among the countries that help us. Italy does, but not as actively. On the other hand, all these stories could completely provoke anti-Russian sentiment. They really could. But they could also backfire: 'See, Russia is strong – we should be friends with it and not quarrel, it's better not to help Ukraine.' What the Kremlin's intentions are, how they imagined this – that's also a big question. We've seen that their plans are in many ways different from reality, detached from it – both in relation to Ukraine and in relation to other things," Stupak noted.

In his opinion, Russia may plan one thing, but the actual result will be completely opposite. He also admits that a whole range of different plans could exist: the Russians could be exploring all possible courses of action and, at some point, abandoning some, or preparing certain operations but not carrying them out. Therefore, the expert believes that the Russians' possible options should not be underestimated.

"Cutting cables is a very unpleasant thing. It's something that can happen," Stupak noted. At the same time, the expert agrees that such information may be aimed at sowing certain discord between NATO countries or diverting attention from other issues.

"The logic of the people in the Kremlin, or the intelligence agencies, is this: one of their tools is bluff. Sometimes they say that in certain situations, a good bluff can solve half the problem. And perhaps they're counting on the fact that, by constantly threatening aggression, they're forcing these countries to keep their resources to themselves and not share with Ukraine: how can we share with you if we're attacked and we don't have enough ourselves? It's possible. Or perhaps the goal is to keep the populations of these countries in limbo. But it could also swing the other way: from 'how scary Russia is' to 'so what are we afraid of? Let's oppose it more,'" Stupak is convinced.

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    Russia attacks Europe from merchant ships; bloody battle in the Mediterranean Sea | Gan Jing World