James Kaufman reports on a recent M3.01 solar flare, suggesting it was actually much stronger but partially eclipsed by the sun's limb. While the flare caused a brief period of X-ray impact on Earth, its associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was not geo-effective. Kaufman also discusses planetary alignments and predicts an increase in solar, seismic, and volcanic activity around September 10th-11th.
James Kaufman, World News Report today.
Ladies and gentlemen, we've just had a strong M-class solar flare.
I believe it was much stronger than
that and eclipsed by the incoming limb of our sun.
Now, we're going to have to make a judgment together.
They're not assigning it to a sunspot group yet.
As you can see here, through our KP indexes,
we've seen very little to no plasma or solar wind
hitting earth from any of the indexes
although we do see three hours of a geomagnetic disturbance
on the college index everything else
was very very quiet all right folks this is it
and it's the strongest flare we've had
in over 10 days uh it is an m 3.01
and it occurred
right at, well, how about 21 UTC time,
more like about 4 o'clock central time here in the U.S.
Now, they really have not assigned it to a sunspot group.
I think all the sunspot groups
are now simple, although you see that one of them wasn't so simple,
although nothing's been
assigned to a sunspot group.
I wonder if these are filament eruptions. These two were from
yesterday we've had very little happen today
and obviously there's nothing in or around 1920 utc
time mentioned although they do cover the flare here 72 hour max
and a 24 hour max chances of an
x-class solar flare today were one percent chances
of an m-class solar flare today were 15 percent
and we only had a 60% chance of having a C-class solar flare,
a very quiet star.
All right, over to HMI Intensigram.
We're looking at six simple sunspots
that are Earth-facing our solar disk.
Now, this could have been generated by 4524, but I don't think so.
I think that this was actually backside
or something that's just coming around the limb,
and we'll take a look at the back side together.
I just don't think it was from 4524,
although it could have been.
I'm going to show you all.
We really had a sympathetic situation
where two events occurred at one time.
All right, here are two events.
This right here, it's really not even a sunspot group.
It's like a filament release of some sort.
Saw it, but then on the limb over there
is where the party happened.
And we'll look at Glasgow
because it might have been that named sunspot,
but you would think that they would have assigned it.
Very strong flare there.
Looks much stronger than any M3.01 flare.
Lucky for us, it is on the incoming limb, no matter,
and it won't be geo-effective towards Earth.
And that's a great thing, because it put out
a really ugly coronal mass ejection, as you can see here.
That would have been, well, too much for Earth shields.
That's a very strong explosion, far stronger than an M3.01.
Again, probably eclipsed partially
or mostly by our limb before it hit our GOES satellite.
So it's not registering as strong as it may have been.
Now, we all know the best way to find out when that flare popped
off really is to use our D-Region Absorption Prediction Center.
It shows the X-rays that almost instantly hit Earth, even from 93
million miles away, just in a couple of seconds, impacted Earth.
And you can see it's at 1920, 1930,
pretty long-term situation, too.
It started right around 1900,
and it was intense over a good portion of the United States,
all of Central America, and the Pacific.
And here you see it's 20 UTC time, and still going an hour later,
and it's still going here at 2015,
and slowly dies off by about 2045.
so about an hour and 45 minutes of x-rays pounding
our planet all right this is what i think caused
it to 005 here in blue remember these are a day
and a half old so this would have probably moved
and be just about earth facing
and see how far it would have had to move and this is a 12 day
total journey so a day and a half it was probably right about here
and that's probably what we're
dealing with this huge light blue sunspot group
then we'll probably break up into three different
sunspot groups if not more the only other thing we have
on the back side is 008 so we've had
two or three disappear on the back side
with that said earth continues to move into position
with the big gas giants about to be behind it.
We have a geomagnetic connection to Saturn, to Neptune, to Eris,
and we have the moon coming around,
and we could have some trouble
in or around September 10th or September 11th,
like it's in 9-11.
So let's look for earthquake and volcano uptick
uptick and maybe even a solar uptick around
those time periods and we'll see we now have
a geomagnetic connection all the way to uranus nothing
at venus yet it's really strange why
doesn't it connect to venus i am not sure not seeing that occur
but you're gonna uh soon be
in between the gas giants and our sun
and we're going to have an uptick in solar activity and
we're going to have an uptick in earthquake
and volcanic activity here on planet earth
with that said i believe that uh the huge uh CME coronal mass ejection
and solar flare that we just
saw that was called out as a M3.0 1 was probably eclipsed
by the incoming limb and probably more
of a backside event. Y'all saw the CME, the coronal mass ejection.
If that would have been
headed towards Earth, we'd be in a, well, serious situation.
That said, please make sure to give us
a thumbs up on your way out. Please share if you can.
And folks, God bless you all.