Brazil runoff, Netanyahu’s test and rising tensions with Iran

Following some pretty major developments and a dramatic presidential runoff in Brazil, Brazil's president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was re-elected yesterday over opponent Flavio Bolsonaro. Now, Bolsonaro is the son of former President Bolsonaro, who Lula defeated to take the presidency back in 2022. Yeah, so joining us now to discuss what this could mean for relations between Brazil and the U.S. is William Muck. He is professor of political science at North Central College. Professor Muck, thank you for being here. So what do we know about this outcome in Brazil as the pendulum here in the western hemisphere swinging back left? And how will this affect our relationship with Brazil? This is just fantastic political drama, right? So you have Lula da Silva, who has been, this is his fourth time being president. He was also president from 2003 to 2010. He's finishing up his third term, moving into his fourth, running against Jair Bolsonaro, the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who was the previous president, who's now in jail for trying to carry out a coup in 2022 to overturn an election. I mean, so the drama is just fantastic here. In terms of what it means for the United States, I think a much more contentious or continued contentious relationship with Brazil. It's very clear that the Trump administration favored Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump are very close. So I think they were hoping a shift to the right. And what we've seen throughout the region is I think seven elections in the last 18 months have drifted center right in Latin America. This is a center left victory. So really sort of interesting dramatic developments, international politics, so fascinating to follow. Yeah, no, it really is because we have even more big elections to talk about. We've got Israel voting tomorrow and a major test for Benjamin Netanyahu. So what do we need to watch for in this one, how is this election looking? How is it shaping up and how could it affect US policy in the Middle East? Yeah, so this is really a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu. That's the most important thing. And what's gonna be really interesting to watch is tomorrow, obviously they go to the polls, there's gonna be the voting. But that really only begins the process cuz nobody thinks that either of the two major political parties are gonna win a majority. So Israelis parliamentary system, you gotta to get to 61 seats. So whatever the voting is tomorrow, then the real fun begins to looking at that coalition. Can Benjamin Netanyahu, he might not even get the most votes, but can he build a coalition to get to 61 members of the parliament to stay in power? That's what we got to be watching for. So initially looking at the returns, but then that process of trying to decide which coalition is going to be in power and will Netanyahu continue as prime minister. Really, really contentious. In terms of the bigger pictures about foreign policy, I don't think that's going to shift much. Broad support for the war in Iran, broad support for continuing tensions against Gaza. So I don't think there's going to be a dramatic foreign policy shift, but domestic policy may make some changes. Okay, on a related note, the Washington Post is reporting that Iran may be in what they're calling advanced stages of plotting to target American officials abroad. Iran evidently fearing another U.S.-Israeli offensive. How concerning is this in your mind? I think it's very concerning, right? So both sides are saying they're not doing anything now, but they may start very soon. So the Trump administration appears to be maybe getting ready for a major attack after the midterms. Iran is also gearing up for an attack, and their attack would be very different, more of an asymmetrical attack targeting U.S. officials, targeting ambassadors abroad. We're on the cusp of something that could spiral into a much bigger conflict. I think that's what we need to be paying attention to. do we drift into fighting and does that lead to a cycle of escalation so i think a lot of us are worried about like a small scale incident could become a much much bigger war i want to ask you domestically about what is happening you mentioned the midterms here we're about a week away now the justice department is sort of preemptively filing suits against a couple states we've mentioned alaska seeking to block the results of november's u.s senate election from being certified unless the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan wins. Okay, am I reading this right? What's going on? Yeah, yeah, you're right. And we should say it's unprecedented to see the DOJ get involved at this early stage, right? There is a role for the Department of Justice making sure elections are free and fair. But this one's really, really unique. So the concern, and it sounds like this one is coming directly from the president who says he's worried that there are two names that are too close and that may confuse people. and that may in fact be evidence of fraud, right? And I think the reality is we can have people with similar names on an election. This has happened before. The US system is very good at accounting for that. But yeah, it's a dramatic development and many of those who study elections are worried it's evidence that the president may be much more proactive in a variety of ways, either before or immediately after the election. So these are important developments and things we need to be paying close attention to. A week from tomorrow, it's almost here. Professor Mock, thank you for your time. Thanks for having me.