James Kaufman reports that Earth has experienced a G1 geomagnetic storm (KP5) over the last several hours, with some indices suggesting a G2 level. While the storm appears to be subsiding, the report highlights a critical vulnerability in Earth's magnetic shields and the rapid expansion of the South Atlantic Anomaly.
James Kaufman, World News Report today.
Ladies and gentlemen, we've been back in a geomagnetic storm,
according to our estimated planetary KP index, for the last six hours.
This is a G1 geomagnetic storm,
a KP5, again for the last six hours.
Look at the college KP index.
We've actually been in a geomagnetic storm for the last nine hours,
including a G2 for the last six.
But we're going to go with our estimated planetary index,
the updated index that NOAA and NASA exclusively use.
Real quickly, three hours on the Fredericksburg,
that would be a G1 geomagnetic storm,
and six hours on the Boulder,
which would also be a G1 KP5 geomagnetic storm.
Now, taking a little bit closer look
at our estimated planetary KP index, we really have
been in a geomagnetic storm for a total of nine hours today,
although this bar represents 7 to 10 central last night,
i.e. UTC time.
This was 0-100 to 300 UTC time, i.e. on the 11th.
We were in a G2 geomagnetic storm yesterday for six hours,
as you all well know,
and that happened from about 1 p.m. to about 7 p.m., give or take.
So, finally, NOAA's KP index forecast breakdown
of January 11th through the 13th
actually has some accuracy in it.
they were very close here coming out
of the chutes we got up to a 5.0 they have it as a g1 4.67
and they were pretty close here as well
while they didn't realize that this was going to be
a geomagnetic storm as well they did almost get this right
and said it would be a 4.67
ended up being a 5 and we believe the storm might
be over at this time it definitely looks like it
in the data itself with that said we're currently
having aurora borealis over western europe and as
y'all can see the forecast has it breaking up
and then reforming with aurora borealis of course
mostly over canada and maybe touching some
of the northern states this evening i don't know if that's
a good forecast or not based on the data i'm seeing
on discover taking a look at our discover
satellite that's supposed to orbit earth
at a million miles the sun being 93 plus million miles
away and it's supposed to be orbiting
at lagrange point one we see that most of the data here has
dropped off now there's regularly a 50
to 90 minute delay on space weather once we see it
here on the satellite until it actually reaches our planet
so these two bumps here are very
insignificant with plasma
but please notice the red line here our shields are completely down
completely down almost all day long
and they were up earlier in the day but not for the first three
hours they were down when we experienced
that g1 geomagnetic storm right there now ladies and
gentlemen we're not talking about much plasma here i see
a 29.7 reading a 49.77 reading uh
a 12.14 it doesn't take much when the shields
are down especially if our bz gsm is southward
pointed here so that was a get a give me
no shields whatsoever they're definitely uh disappearing
our south atlantic anomaly that covers now part
of Brazil is growing very quickly I will show you
all that right now this was all geomagnetic storm
and I just don't see any cause here we can we can
get up to 13.45 plasma our shields are down red lines way below zero
but we do have that northern
angle on our 5GSM well wind speeds pop up to 690
that one little one little minute one little
minute is what that is uh we again have
been in that G1 geomagnetic storm for what for six hours
to this time period here my guess
is is that the next shooter drop will bring us out of the
geomagnetic storm because we really have no plasma
and it looks like our shields are trying to come
out of the zero here now I want to show you all
that anomaly growing over the South Atlantic
in South America it's almost starting to cover parts
of the Caribbean before we do it this is
another look at the plasma it's just a little
bit easier to look at and this was that well Kp5
G1 geomagnetic storm and none of these are above 10
which is the space weather threshold nothing
has occurred above that in about the last two hours
so again I'm guessing that the next shooter
drop will bring us out of the geomagnetic storm taking
a look at the last couple hours on our
magnetometer you can see that we
were in a geomagnetic storm as well kind of looking at it
from the opposite position
if you will, it's like we're really jumping into a Kp6 there
and a G2, but they didn't go that high at least
on our estimated planetary index if you recall
they did on some of the other indexes located
in different places now this magnetometer here
is going to be located in Sweden just to let you know
and just for reference solar winds are not
really in play at all, and they shouldn't be.
This was a CME ejection. It wasn't a
coronal hole. Winds were at about 552 kilometers per second,
and really nothing that would cause
a geomagnetic storm.
We saw that huge push up in front of the plasma yesterday, and that was
the only event associated with the solar winds.
Let's take a look at that huge southern
Atlantic anomaly that keeps growing it's a hole in our atmosphere
and it's very very dangerous
situation some quick pictures
these are about three months old i couldn't get anything from
the last week or two they say since 2014
the south atlantic anomaly is growing extremely quickly
it's almost covered all of south america
which makes it extremely vulnerable to space weather
and stretches from the tip of Africa all
the way across the Atlantic now.
Again, they're having real problems here in Brazil because of this.
Very susceptible to even the lightest space weather.
South Atlantic anomaly being tracked
by just about everyone from what I can tell.
All right.
This is a scientific visualization by NASA.
See 2015, 16, 17 into 25. How quickly it's growing.
They also indicate that it's heating up our core
or our mantle, which is real global warming, right?
Crazy stuff.
Growing as fast as the South Atlantic Anomaly is growing over
the last five years, it's going to be a miracle if most
of North America is without an atmosphere at all in another five years.
And it might even speed up.
With that said, things are pretty slow on our star currently.
We have a total of five sunspots.
sunspots 43 37 is about to go around the far limb
and i see one beta gamma sunspot
one of the more active ones four three three six
rest of them were simple we have a very small chance
of any significant solar activity please give us
a thumbs up guys please share i will let y'all
know if anything changes,
but I think we're coming out of the geomagnetic storm currently.
Remember though, anything's possible in the Bizarro World.
Please share. God bless.