How Israeli Oct 26th strike on Iran happened

On 26th of October, Israel struck Iran back. This video covers the timeline and composition of the attack, showing what assets Israel used, plane types used, weapons used, locations and types of targets, as well as likely routes and support missions involved. So stay tuned. Just before midnight Israeli time on the 25th of October, dozens of fighter jets started taking off from multiple bases across Israel. The whole operation ultimately consisted of some 100 combat aircraft, supported by a few, possibly three, tanker aircraft. Several bases were involved in launching the attacks. F-35s took off from the Nevatim base. F-16s of the Sufa variant, the most advanced F-16s Israel has, took off from the Ramon base. And F-15s took off from Hatzirim and Tel Nof airbases. Of the 100 aircraft used, approximately half were likely hauling heavy air to ground weapons. The remaining planes were there to provide fighter escort, as well as to provide suppressing fire against SAM systems. There is no info yet on the type of weapons launched by Israeli planes, but in all likelihood, attacks were done using guided air-launched ballistic missiles. At least two missile types are likely. ROKS missile and the so-called Golden Horizon missile. Those have been observed by the US intelligence when Israeli air force practiced with them for the strike on Iran. ROKS is more known, as it was advertised for export. It's a bit smaller and with shorter range. The Golden Horizon is less known. Its first mention ever was just days ago in that leaked US intelligence assessment of Israel's preparation for attack on Iran. It's possible that some air-launched Lora missiles were also used, but that remains to be seen. The Golden Horizon might be a further derivative of the air-launched Lora. Making a missile that's much more heavy than Lora is not viable for Israel, as Israel lacks aircraft that could carry weapons of over 5000 pounds in weight. Weight-wise, the sweet spot would be just heavy enough that F-16s could carry instead of their 600-gallon external fuel tanks. But Binkov's take is that Golden Horizon is plausibly derived from the Blue Sparrow target missile instead, just like the ROKS is derived from the smaller Black Sparrow target missile. Given that the Blue Sparrow has a separate warhead, it is plausible that Golden Horizon also has a separate maneuvering warhead, for future proofing of Israeli capabilities against Iranian missile defenses. Right now, Iranian SAMs are unlikely to be able to confidently deal with non-maneuvering hypersonic ballistic missiles. But a maneuvering warhead might be enough to stay on top of Iranian defenses for a decade or two more. With a name like that, the Golden Horizon, and with its speed and difficulty of interception, it also plausibly has a nuclear warhead option available. But we digress. Another reason why Golden Horizon might be Blue Sparrow derived is because the US intelligence leaks mentioned specialized dollies for Golden Horizon were spotted near F-15 hardened shelters. So the weapon may be sized to be used by F-15s, which are Blue Sparrow carriers. Multiple weapon types were there to be used against multiple target sets. The shorter-range ROKS was likely used against targets closer to Iran's western border, while the longer-range missiles were used for targets inside Iran. What that shows is that Israel does fear Iran's SAM defenses enough so that it did not want to risk actually flying its aircraft deep inside Iranian airspace. Instead, standoff missiles likely made up the majority of the attack. So far, there's no info about Israeli planes going deep inside Iran, even though Israeli planes could have reached those targets and bombed them from close range, had there been non-defenses. Israel does have that kind of reach. Iran's western border is 600 miles away from Israel, while a good deal of targets in the middle of Iran are up to a thousand miles away. But Israel's longest ranged planes also have quite a reach. They can do roughly 800 miles when laden with a significant bomb load, with the F-35s falling slightly behind. Of course, those are perfect world examples. In wars, especially if going deep inside enemy airspace, roundabout routes are used so fewer air defenses are encountered. Gas-guzzling acceleration and speed might be used as well in combat. So a practical combat radius for delivering actual bombs might struggle to reach much into Iran. That's why standoff weapon attacks are better, as they allow fairly straight routes, even if those weapons, pound for pound, have smaller warheads than bombs. Another thing that's somewhat shortening a ballistic missile's reach is trajectory. If Israel wants to hit and penetrate some deeply buried targets, a hit at 90 degrees to the ground might be desirable. But such high-angle shots eat away the missile's maximum range. Of course, in-air refueling planes are also a thing. A single Israeli large air tanker, on a three-hour mission, flying to eastern Syria or western Iraq where it offloads fuel to fighter jets for an hour, could likely offload something like 20 thousand gallons. Filling up fuel for fighter jets like F-35 and F-16 at said point should add another 400 or so miles to their range, while taking some 700 gallons, give or take, from the tanker. Basically, almost two dozen such jets could be refueled by a single tanker plane. In this attack, it's plausible three or so such tankers were used. That's because those large ballistic missiles are heavy and they increase planes' fuel consumption. Without in-air refueling, it's unlikely planes would have achieved an 800 mile radius like with bombs. With the tankers used, planes' range was extended so the missile launch point was somewhere over Iraq. Right now, known targets were multiple missile and drone production facilities around Tehran, as well as Iranian Revolutionary Guard HQ and barracks in Tehran. Missile storage bays in Shiraz and a drone factory in Iraq were also hit. To facilitate easier access, various SAM sites and aerial facilities, likely air bases, were hit, according to the IDF. Possibly in Zanjan and Kermanshah, as well as unidentified locations across Ilam and Kazakhstan provinces. The latter were likely engaged by the short-range ROKS missiles, while the targets farther inside Iran were engaged by Golden Horizons. All in all, IDF suggested around 20 different locations were hit, likely containing multiple targets each. Possibly leading to a hundred or more weapons used in the attack. Basically, Israel was doing a show, hitting a similar target set to what Iran went for in addition to those missile factories, but only hoping to do it more precisely and possibly doing more damage with fewer missiles used. Surprisingly few videos of strikes have been observed to date, so assessment of damage is still hard to do. Israel also has the ability to use long-range cruise missiles. Both a submarine-launched and an air-launched turbo-popeye cruise missile allegedly exist. But so far, there is no info that said missiles were used. That may be because cruise missiles in general are falling out of fashion. Their effectiveness in Ukraine has been recorded to be fairly lackluster. Despite being possibly harder to detect, they're still easier to engage and shoot down. So the same reason that made Israelis not push its planes inside Iran may have persuaded them to stick with hard-to-intercept ballistic missiles. Reason being, Iranian air defenses are simply getting good enough and numerous enough to pose a credible threat. So why risk and lose several planes with a more direct attack? That's why Israel decided to go with a ballistic missile attack. There are also some reports that a small number of targets were engaged by various slow-flying drones, but not much more information is available. Israeli attack plane formations formed three separate attack packages. Preliminary attacks took out radars and SAM sites in Syria along the main attack route, likely between 1 and 2 AM Iranian time. The first strike package of planes launching attacks on Iran likely launched their weapons around 2 AM. It is plausible those were attacking the air defense network in the west of Iran. Planes of the second and third strike packages plausibly required in-air refueling to reach their targets, sometime after 2 and 3 AM. They launched their large missiles and hit various headquarters and missile and drone facilities between 3 and 4 AM. It's possible Israeli planes did enter Iran in the north to position the launches more favorably, bypassing some defenses. Iranian air force planes were observed scrambling in the north of the country as well. It is unknown if any aerial fights took place, or if Iran reacted too late. Israeli formations were also protected by an early warning plane of the ATAM family. Basically the Israeli equivalent of an AWACS. And IDF confirmed a spy plane was used. Combat search and rescue aircraft are also standard procedure for such formations. Not only if the enemy manages to hit a plane and the pilot has to eject, but accidents can always happen. After releasing weapons, the last wave of aircraft needed another hour or so to return to base. Just after 5 AM Iranian time, the IDF said the operation ended and all planes returned home safely. It was a complex operation, requiring coordination of a hundred aircraft, making it one of the largest strike formations in recent military history, anywhere. Mind you, strikes usually need both recon in advance and post-strike recon missions for damage assessment. Those can be done via satellites, but also via recon planes. For targets close to Iran's border, dedicated recon planes could offer very timely, basically live coverage of the hits and damage. The US intelligence league also mentioned a recon UAV called RA-01. Nothing is known of it, and no public image exists of it. But apparently the US DOD knows of its existence, which is not strange. Plausibly the RA-01 might be some sort of high-flying slash fast-flying large drone, with stealth features. Made to quickly come to an area, take some high-resolution videos from a hundred or a few hundred miles away, then get the heck out of there before the enemy manages to react. If so, it sounds like something tailor-made against Iran's assets and capabilities. Even so, going deep inside Iran with such assets might not be regularly doable. That's why Israel's attack was very likely also timed to coincide with passes of its recon satellites over important areas in Iran. Israel can also likely count on US satellite imagery and assessment. If the post-damage assessments of the strike are satisfactory, then Israel may not desire to do further strikes. But it really all depends on a much broader plan and situation. Just how much damage Israel wants to inflict on Iran. And how much damage is enough to force Iran's hand and make it perform another missile strike on Israel. If another round of strikes happens, as an answer to the Israeli strike, then we are very likely in for yet another round of Israeli strikes as well. And remember, Binkov may talk about war, but only real peace can bring us all together.