E.J. Antoni, chief economist, at The Heritage Foundation, discussed with NTD's Jack Bradley, President Donald Trump's trip to Pennsylvania to speak about affordability, how Trump's policies implemented in 2025 will take effect in 2026, the implications for premiums of Trump's proposal to give Affordable Care Act subsidies to consumers, rather than insurance companies, and his analysis of the best reforms to make to the ACA.
President Trump is heading to
Pennsylvania to speak to Americans about
affordability. Joining me to discuss is
EJ Anthony, chief economist at the
Heritage Foundation.
EJ Anthony, thanks so much for joining
us here again today.
>> Jack, my pleasure. Thank you for having
me.
>> Now, President Trump is heading to
Pennsylvania next week to speak about
affordability. Does the administration
have a good uh data to back up their
message on the price of goods for
everyday Americans?
Well, we certainly have seen some prices
coming down since the start of this
year, so that's welcomed relief. Uh
unfortunately, we're also seeing some
prices continue to rise. Some of that is
a leftover uh from the bad policies of
last year. For example, uh the Fed,
unlike today where I think you can make
a case for cutting interest rates. There
really was no case for cutting interest
rates uh back in the fall, right about a
year ago, but that's exactly when the
Fed was cutting rates and that created
inflationary pressures that started to
rear their head 6 12 months later. In
other words, right now. So again, we're
still dealing with a lot of hangovers
from the Biden administration. But the
really important thing is not just what
are prices doing, but what are wages and
prices doing. And in that regard, we
we've seen uh earnings growth outpace
inflation in 2025. Very welcomed relief
for consumers because they had exactly
the opposite of that during the previous
four years under Biden, for example. Uh
the a what the average American could
buy with his or her weekly paycheck
actually fell. It was down about 4% by
the time Biden left office. So things
are moving in the right direction
certainly. Uh but that doesn't mean
we've undone all the damage of the last
four years, unfortunately. And the
administration said that we should start
seeing more improvements in 2026. Why
this timeline?
>> Well, because a lot of the uh public
policies that are going to affect 2026
were were just uh put in place today,
were just put in place right now in
2025. So, by the same token that when
Biden took office, you didn't
immediately have 40-year high inflation.
you didn't immediately see uh the
interest rate on a 30-year mortgage, for
example, triple or quadruple in some
markets. It took time for the policies
that were enacted uh in 2021, let's say,
to have an effect. And some of those
policies didn't even take effect until
23 or 24. So, when we passed uh for
example, when when they passed the uh
the tax bill this year, some of those
provisions are not actually going to
have much of an impact until 2026. But
you know, all that to say, the good work
that has been done this year, the
foundation that has been laid in 2025, I
think will support more robust economic
growth in 2026. So that that's a very
bullish outlook in my opinion.
>> And EJ, I want to get to another topic
here. Subsidies for the Affordable Care
Act are set to expire at the end of the
year. President Trump's proposed giving
the subsidies that would normally go to
the insurance company to the consumer
instead. How would that affect premiums?
>> Oh, it would put tremendous downward
pressure on those premiums because under
the current system, what happens is the
government uh just keeps increasing the
subsidies as much as the insurers will
increase their premiums. It look, it's
exactly what has happened with student
loans. Every time the government says,
"Look, we're going to give you more
money for student loans," right? What
happens? Tuition goes up. cost of
attendance goes up because colleges and
universities smell blood in the water
and they know that they can simply just
match the increase in the in student
loans with the cost of attendance
increase. That's what happens. And what
happens in healthcare now under the
unaffordable care act, which is what it
should be called, Obamacare, uh is that
every time you see an increase in these
subsidies, the insurance companies just
increase costs for consumers to match.
And so it hasn't made anything more
affordable. It has made it unaffordable.
It has helped add to the national debt
and made the deficit much worse. And it
has reduced competition instead of
increasing competition. If you give the
money to people, people can take the
money wherever they want or not even
they don't even have to spend it all. Uh
and all of that puts downward pressure
on premiums. It puts downward pressure
on health care costs and that's going to
be a big win for the American people.
So, uh, you and several congressional
Republicans repeat this message that,
um, you know, the the subsidies are
obviously increasing the the price of
the premiums, but among the plans being
proposed in Congress, they're looking to
reform Obamacare or the ACA rather than
uh do away with it. Um, what would you
recommend uh that drives prices down uh
that Congress would be considering? then
one of the best reforms they could do
would be doing away with all of the
nonsensical requirements that Obamacare
has put in place in terms of what must
be covered. Because look, what do you
think would happen to your car insurance
if we mandated if the government said
your car insurance must cover things
like oil changes, tire rotation, uh uh
tuneups, replacing a spark plug or a
timing belt or timing chain? What would
happen to the cost of your car
insurance? it would go through the roof
because the car insurance company now
has to cover all of these additional
expenses. They're going to require high
higher premiums to simply make up for
that. Except you'll end up paying even
more in the long run because now you've
introduced a middleman into the process
and he's always going to want to take a
cut off the top on every single repair
or every single maintenance item you
have done. So what's the parallel with
health care? Do away with all of that.
you know, make it so that we go back to
a model where you just pay a low cash
price for most services. And what your
health care actually covers are
catastrophes. Your health care should
cover emergencies like if you break a
leg or if you need a a surgery, things
like that. It should not cover things
like your annual checkup because believe
it or not, you end up paying more in the
long run for that annual checkup if
health insurance is involved. It's
actually cheaper in the long run to pay
a much lower premium and to pay a low
cash price for that checkup. EJ Anthony,
thank you so much for sharing your
insights here today. Always appreciated.
Oh,
>> it's my pleasure. Thank you for having
me.