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Quang Hai greets you all Today we'll continue tracking the latest developments regarding the Hormuz Strait The conflict between the United States Israel and Iran And without keeping you waiting any longer here is the exclusive content right after this Iran forced the U S Navy to back down in a confrontation at the Strait of Hormuz Today further reports have emerged about Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cyber Force It has attacked two additional foreign oil tankers in the Persian Gulf raising the total number of vessels targeted in the past 24 hours to six Things became more complicated last night when Iran warned the Houthi forces in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups It may be possible to blockade the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula Meanwhile on March 12 President Trump declared tha The large-scale military campaign had essentially ended almost as soon as it began The only question was when and when would we stop Is it too early for President Trump to claim victory when asymmetric warfare remains a very significant threat and will it continue for several weeks or even months As some experts have pointed out Endurance modes don't require absolute victory to change the game —they just need to endure the shock while making recovery possible The old balance of power had become too costly for the opponent Now let's analyze the asymmetric contest unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz Iran's successes over the past few days show the country appears to be exerting maximum pressure and forced the U S Navy to retreat through the Strait of Hormuz It's clear that an effective blockade is now in place Iran allowed only certain friendly vessels to pass through while destroying all others Satellite imagery reveals the strait devoid of ships with vessels lined up along both opposite shores waiting to resolve the congestion issue and almost no ships dared to proceed Despite President Donald Trump's assertion tha The Strait of Hormuz remains fully secure and positioning data reports indicate that ships appear to be passing through this chokepoint But the new analysis revealed that the fleet mentioned in those reports was actually not real Large-scale GPS spoofing operations generated false data Sailors from multiple countries inadvertently became unwitting participants due to the large-scale destruction of oil tankers and port facilities in the UAE Oman Kuwait and various other locations The video shot from the cargo ship of China captured the moment Iran's Shaheed 136 drone Attacked an oil storage facility at Oman's Salalah port on the morning of March 12 The damage was extensive This video captures the moment an Iranian vessel loaded with explosives rammed into an oil tanker owned by the United States in the Persian Gulf Another vessel flying the Thai flag caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz on March 12 captured from a specific viewpoint The crew members had evacuated onto the lifeboat The most notable development centered on Iran It is believed to have begun clearing naval mines in the strait However official statements from Iranian officials have denied this Meanwhile the United States appears to be trying to minimize panic by stating that Iran has only deployed ten mines and the Americans have destroyed most of the mine-clearing vessels in recent days to eliminate Iran's mine-clearing capability U S Treasury Secretary Scott Bensett on the other hand argued that the oil tankers flying Iranian and Chinese flags The Iranian Strait is currently shrouded in a fog of war deliberately engineered to deliver advantage for both sides for different reasons For Trump it was obvious he wanted to reassure that the U S was in control On the other hand Iran also wants to send the message that it has not yet fully resorted to its highest level of weaponry although Tehran appears to have tested public opinion regarding the use of mines not to mention strategic considerations Keeping its intentions undisclosed and unannounced is highly advantageous for Iran and the more confused its adversaries remain the better On one hand foreign oil tankers and energy facilities in the Persian Gulf have been continuously attacked by Iran yet on the other hand Iran's island of Iraq It hasn't been attacked yet It's unclear whether the Trump administration is trying to preserve this strategic oil facility for the new Iranian government or is simply concerned economic disruption even if that means preserving Iran 's oil reserves and allowing Iran to maintain its outpu freely transported outside This highlights the limitation that the United States lacks sufficient capability to defeat Iran fast enough to prevent economic shocks from spreading widely The U S has already done this in Venezuela but with Iran it seems more difficult While the U S Navy continues to claim it is in control of the situation on the other hand it also asserts tha The reopening of the strait is beyond his capabilities U S Energy Secretary Chris Wright clearly stated the reasons why the U S Navy We are still not ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz We simply aren't ready yet All of our current military resources are focused on dismantling Iran's attack capabilities and its weapons production industry providing those attack capabilities Nevertheless Mr Wright added that the U S Navy could escort ships Shipping oil through the strait at the end of this month Could this be the main reason behind the U S A naval force is reportedly The world's most powerful nation is now acknowledging it cannot maintain freedom of navigation through one of the globe 's most critical maritime chokepoints There are two reasons explaining why the U S declined to escort the oil tankers First the presence of U warships accompanying them Deploying minesweeping vessels to escort oil tankers is extremely costly The U S military is unwilling to take on such missions in the context of asymmetric warfare A modern Navy force operating a escort system to protect commercial vessels from a armed group using fast boats and AK-47 rifles and whether rocket-propelled ammunition is the clearest example of asymmetric conflict that anyone can easily envision In terms of equipment the U S Navy's surface combatants used primarily for escort duties are mainly Ticonderoga-class cruisers and the Ackleyburg-class destroyers were supplemented by Cyclone-class patrol vessels and smaller craft These cruisers and destroyers For any enemy the Ackleyburg -class destroyer is a lurking nightmare equipped with a formidable array of weapons cluding 5-inch guns Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of striking targets thousands of miles away and SM-2 guided missiles SM-3 and SM-6 capable of engaging drones manned aircraft ballistic missiles and even satellites as well as short-range weapon systems and two MH-60R helicopters Of course an Ackleyburg-class destroyer is fully crewed well-trained and equipped with state-of-the-art weaponry valued at over two billion dollars the upgraded fast attack craft used by Iran's forces to attack commercial vessels en it costs only a few tens of thousands of dollars even a fleet of fast attack craft equipped with missiles and short-range guns still costs only significantly lower than that of a destroyer This financial disparity is extremely evident Monday is that even if warships participate in any such escort efforts they would face extreme risks especially those mobile land-based anti-ship missiles from Iran most of these anti-ship missiles have a maximum range of up to 300 kilometers As long as the American ships remain beyond missile range they'll be relatively safe but the closer they get to the danger zone the more at risk they become The greater the risk becomes at ranges of 200 to 300 kilometers U S warships also face heightened danger of attack by anti-ship ballistic missiles and long-range cruise missiles at ranges of 25 to 50 kilometers they pose a significant threa attacked by various types of smaller cheaper anti-ship cruise missiles and drones At a distance of over 30 kilometers they are at risk of being attacked by Iranian unmanned boats On this occasion Iran has also announced a video showing underground drone storage facilities concealed beneath their grounds intended to counter Trump's claims regarding the complete destruction of the Iranian navy Currently there are no U S warships within 700 kilometers of the Iranian coastline he also stated Iran is the second country in the world after Russia to possess underwater-launched missiles also known as high-speed torpedoes Over 360 kilometers per hour This Iranian general's focus is on the Soviet Scarva torpedo reaching speeds of nearly 250 miles per hour by using a highly advanced form of supercavitation — clearly this is a threa Regarding U S warships in the Strait of Hormuz in short the U claims significant successes at sea Over 60 Iranian warships destroyed However despite these severe losses Iran's ability to compete has not been entirely eliminated More importantly Iran continues to maintain its influence Regarding the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait one cannot deny the fact that U S and Israeli military campaigns as highlighted Iran's strong capabilities and conventional military strength but the persistent threat will be asymmetric warfare cluding drone attacks mines and the capability to sabotage underwater installations as well as a range of low-cost weapons causing significant damage while simultaneously creating instability In commercial shipping activities in the Gulf of Ba Thu Iran hopes to achieve two outcomes: first Iran expects oil prices to rise and secondly they hope to demonstrate that they remain the dominant power in the Middle East Leverage that position as a bargaining tool to end the war and ease the sanctions President Trump has sent constantly shifting signals regarding the timing of America's conflict with Iran Another sign of this uncertainty is e cost of the conflict according to a report by The New York Times reveals that the first week of the war The U S has spent over 11.3 billion dollars and this shows the conflict may not bring about political change quickly just as Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu had hoped Failed strategy to change the regime One of the main objectives of the terrifying fury campaign is reportedly aimed at changing Iran's regime The U S aim is to weaken Islamic leadership and replace it with a more Western-friendly government A precedent has been set that has sparked controversy Targeted assinations aimed at high-ranking political leaders In history such tactics were primarily used to counter insurgent leaders such as Osama Bin Laden or Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi But targeting leaders recognized by nations marked a major shift line with international standards on warfare the United States appears to believe that eliminating Iran's top-level leadership is justified within the first strike on February 28 it will trigger an internal political collapse akin to the Trump administration's actions in Venezuela And the Iranian people could drive political change once the power structure weakens yet the reality on the ground remains complicated The situation is far more complex— bombing campaigns and purely military operations alone cannot bring about immediate political change in Iran Without large-scale intervention changing the regime remains highly uncertain and sending troops into Iran is not an option But the U S still isn't ready So is Donald Trump failing Before answering that question we need to pay attention to two statements Almost simultaneously this morning May 12 President Trump and Iran's new Supreme Leader Mustafa Khamene For Mustafa this is his first public statement since succeeding his father in which he declared that closing the Strait of Hormuz should continue to be used as a tool to pressure adversaries he also stated that all U S bases in the regio The bases must be immediately closed and attacked Furthermore the statement also thanked the Houthi forces Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon due to their support alarmingly this new leader has also warned of opening additional fronts CNN quoted experts who said Mustafa's statement indicated that Iran was clearly sending signals that it was not seeking a ceasefire or ending the war which they believe the United States and its allies and even the global economy itself depend o The cost of this conflict has not yet reached its full toll As for President Trump he continues to seek ways to stabilize global oil prices after making the following statement at the oak podium: the United States is the world 's largest oil producer far surpassing other countries therefore when oil prices rise We earned a great deal of money but what matters far more —and is of much greater concern to me as President—is this It is about preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons The statements from both sides show that one hand Mustafa views closing the Strait of Hormuz as at weapon is a powerful tool to drive oil prices upward forcing the U S to pay a heavy price whereas conversely Trump confidently declared tha Rising oil prices helped the United States earn more money Many people laughed at the music and mocked Trump for running out of ideas As of the time we produced this video the price of crude oil had risen to nearly 110 dollars per barrel Meanwhile WTI oil was trading at $107 both surging sharply despite the 32 member countries e International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a record emergency oil reserve of up to 400 million barrels o curb energy prices Despite oil price forecasts exceeding 150 dollars even reaching 200 dollars as seen in Iran We have already warned against exclusion worse still we haven't even accounted for the sharp fluctuations in diesel fuel aviation fuel and fertilizers and essential chemicals such as sulfur helium gas If these were lacking the economy agriculture and industry would face serious difficulties Industries such as copper production and technology goods like semiconductors will also be severely affected In short the current situation resembles a latent combination of the 1973 oil shock The 2022 Russia-Ukraine war-induced supply shock and the banana supply shoc The longer the war in Iran drags on the more the damage will multiply exponentially like a domino effect And that is precisely what the energy market is reflecting and what the Tehran authorities are counting on— even with current estimates they believe If the conflict ended right now it would still take two weeks to stabilize the situation and another two months to get everything back to normal not to mention the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran which show signs of widening in scope geographically and escalatory Given the geographical context even as Trump continues to oppose using foreign nationals as a tool to counter Tehran en Azerbaijan the country recently attacked by an Iranian drone is another issue altogether—Pakistan too has emphasized its defense treaty partnership with Saudi Arabia and all three are rivals of Iran Russia has also openly declared it is not neutral Supporting Iran at the United Nations Along with this the latest report indicates that Moscow is supplying Iran with various intelligence reports cluding satellite imagery and drone-targeting tactics designed to enable Iran to strike U S forces in the regio The escalating situation over the past week has seen attacks targeting energy facilities on both sides Iran suffered greater losses in the process Trump is reportedly considering sending special forces into Iran Meanwhile the third attack carrier group is en route and furthermore Iran has appointed Mustafa Khamenei as supreme leader The banana-related items my uncle just listed above suggest that the U S -Israel military campaign seems to be making too many mistakes by escalating the conflict beyond spreading beyond Iran and reaching across the entire Middle East The question arises: could this be a catastrophic mistake by the United States is part of the pre-planned strategy to maintain the room note that in the second half In 2025 and early 2026 the United States used its military to disrupt supply chains destined for China o balance the dominance Beijing could leverage to pressure the United States with the goal of securing cheap goods for themselves and expensive goods for other countries These banana supply disruptions include the 12-day conflict between Israel and Ira Nigeria's missile strike Venezuela's surprise raid pressure on Panama to remove China's operating rights from the Panama Canal and Iran's current conflict— Expert Adnaz Ahazi believes the benefits the Trump administration could gain from the closure of the Hormuz Strait might be substantial According to this expert many people predicted that global oil prices could reach 200 dollars but no one anticipated that oil prices would In the U S it might only reach 50 dollars this expert believes the U will be relatively less affected by the global economic turmoil Why Because the United States and other countries in the Americas are relatively energy self-sufficient Keep in mind that it's not jus ere are oil-rich bays such as the Gulf of Mexico in the United States which also contain vast reserves of oil and gas a report from the U S Department of the Interior in October In 2025 it was reported that oil reserves here have increased by 1.3 billion barrels equivalent since 2021 Raising the estimated total oil volume to 7.04 billion barrels equivalent This figure includes 5.77 billion barrels of oil and 7.15 trillion cubic feet of naturally occurring gas reserves This new data confirms the United States now holds a vast energy treasure trove And under President Trump's leadership we are unlocking it— especially as liquefied natural gas supplies from the Gulf region grow If supply is severed U S liquefied natural gas will be the lowest-risk global option who then would trust the Gulf region The suppliers remain unsafe there unless the entire Middle East is placed under an American -style peace And naturally Once oil shipments are blocked at Hormuz liquefied natural gas or American oil will become even more valuable just as Trump has claimed The United States is the world's largest oil supplier far surpassing other countries therefore when oil prices rise we stand to make a great deal of money Furthermore Trump also cited the unstable energy situation caused by the Iran conflict to invoke emergency powers and restart offshore oil drilling projects off the coast of California Already shuttered by Joe Biden's green policy It's clear Trump is killing two birds with one stone Moreover The United States and other American countries have become self-sufficient in many essential goods that are directly or indirectly blocked through the Strait of Hormuz cluding fertilizer which means the food supply of the United States and the United States is at ris It also includes helium vital for manufacturing semiconductor materials while other supply sources may soon be depleted Conversely Europe is once again in a disadvantaged position during this crisis along with Asian producers who rely heavily on energy and is currently struggling with America's stance especially as China will have to rely on its own reserves for a long time And of course Beijing will no longer view Russia as a subordinate partner since it will need Moscow's supply of raw materials and fuel Current developments are fueling speculation that this could be Plan B should the U S fail to subdue Iran by changing the regime as successfully done in Venezuela or perhaps we simply regard this as mere fortunate coincidence but the U S might seek to exploit if it chooses however Trump's Americas Shield project is a regional alliance Aligned with the security and geopolitical priorities of the United States under Trump 's leadership the initiative was launched at the same time as the ongoing Iran conflict Of course it will put pressure on Cuba to keep the country within America's sphere of influence—could this perhaps be yet another rather coincidental occurrence Could it be a major game by Trump considering that Israel under Netanyahu —a close ally of Trump— s benefiting the most in the long term from this conflic Israel benefits from the Middle East dividing into opposing blocs aligned against Iran even as Iran gains some advantage in its asymmetric confrontation with the U S Navy at the Strait of Hormuz But on the foreign policy front Tehran has suffered setbacks First the United Nations Security Council Just passed a resolution condemning Iran for attacks mistakenly targeting Gulf states the resolution was backed by 135 countries The Al Jazeera footage described this as the highest number of co-sponsoring countries for a resolution to date This represents a significant diplomatic setback for Iran Secondly for many decades Arab nations have criticized Israel and publicly support the State of Palestine But now the situation is changing —Iran's attacks on countries in the Gulf have inadvertently led to the formation of a bloc centered on Saudi Arabia Pakistan Turkey Egypt and Oman is taking shape as a cooperative framewor based on sovereignty these countries are increasingly concerned about Iran and some of them may strengthen their ties with Israel o counter Tehran's influence another bloc has emerged around Israel and the UAE strengthened by defense and high-tech cooperation Baian's perception plays a pivotal role in this structure maintaining a deep energy security relationship with Israel It is also closely linked with Turkey expanding cooperation with the UAE becoming a pivotal connection between regional power networks The most notable development is the growing closeness among Turkey Saudi Arabia and Egypt a triangle capable of reshaping the regional military and diplomatic balance as Gulf states historically rivals become entangled in a new strategic configuratio Israel is once again drawing closer to its former enemies due to a shared concern over Iran This has made Israel the ultimate beneficiary with countries increasingly viewing Israel as a strategic security partner and a collaborator in technological advancement Arab nations that previously maintained diplomatic distance may normalize Israel's status in the region while Israel continues to weaken significantly bolstering groups like Hamas in Gaza the Houthi movement in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon if Iran continues to weake These groups may struggle to resume operations Moreover the conflict with Iran backed directly by the United States has also somewhat alleviated concerns about nuclear capabilities as well as bridging the gap between the country's political and military leadership and its elite intelligence personnel Current reports indicate that Supreme Leader Mustafa Khamenei is seriously injured in a coma and has undergone spinal surgery The Sun still wants to believe that despite such severe injuries Mr Mustafa was still in the hands of Iran's religious leaders Appointed as the supreme leader It remains unclear at present whether he was injured on the same day as his father was assinated or not The Iranian ambassador to Shib confirmed that Iran's new supreme leader miraculously survived the airstrike and sustained injuries leading to the deaths of six family members according to CNN Mustafa Khamenei appeared only through a written stateme on Iranian television the speculation about his health condition and his true role within Iran's power structure has only intensified And no one knows where Iran's future is headed if this information is true That concludes today's program Thank you for your attention and support Goodbye and we look forward to seeing you in our upcoming programs