Putin's inner circle has been split over the war against Ukraine and dictator fears destabilization
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Two groups have formed within Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's inner circle, holding opposing views on the war against Ukraine. Some advocate for its continuation, while others hope to end the fighting through negotiations. This was stated by Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, at the YES Annual Meeting 2026 conference, according to RBC-Ukraine .
According to Skibitsky, the conclusions of Ukrainian intelligence are based not only on assessments of the political situation, but also on an analysis of actual intercepted Russian documents. The GUR representative also stated that the Russian regime is concerned about the possible consequences of the war for the domestic political situation in the country. "During potential negotiation procedures, it becomes clear that the regime truly fears internal collapse and destabilization in the country," Skibitsky said. Another alarming signal for the Russian leadership was the results of an analysis of domestic political dynamics in Russia. Ukrainian intelligence monitored the situation in the country in preparation for the election process, and these data showed a noticeable decline in support for pro-government political forces, particularly United Russia, which is a clear signal to the regime. The Main Intelligence Directorate noted that Putin fears the growing influence of Russian oligarchs, remembering the experience of the Mikhail Khodorkovsky case. The Russian leadership's concerns are reflected in specific decisions being made within the country. Among these, the intelligence official cited the adoption of new laws regarding mobilization, the expansion of the powers of Russian intelligence agencies through more stringent security decrees, and the appearance in Russian media of reports about the possible reprivatization of companies and enterprises. According to Skibitsky, Kyiv's international partners need to more clearly understand the balance of power within the Russian elite. It's important to distinguish between those members of the Russian leadership and big business who are interested in continuing the war and those who advocate ending it.
Previously Washington Post reported an open conflict has arisen between the Russian presidential administration and the security forces over the regime's survival strategy. First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko and his team are trying to convince Putin that he can control the situation in the country through political maneuvering. Meanwhile, the country's most influential Service for the Protection of the Constitutional System and the Fight against Terrorism of the FSB insists that the situation can only be stabilized through harsh measures and a "tightening of the screws." These are different approaches, different stakes, and different teams competing for Putin's attention.
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