I CAN'T BELIEVE WHAT THE FED JUST DID [sell everything now?]

so guess what inflation which has been Sky High and pretty much giving everybody a headache for the last 40 years it's finally starting to cool off at a pretty fast pace that's like a breath of fresh air right hmm But is it really though check this out uh the Market's up rates are down and and their CPI there's also claims to rot what do you think like I think this was expected but I think the biggest question is what's the FED gonna do with this uh I mean people are still expecting rates to go up I think they might sit for a little bit but the data is coming in to show that look inflation coming down but it's still embedded in our system and being embedded in our system means that I don't see rates in the next year or so going down which part of the market thinks is going to happen so I think as a equity investor one needs to be really careful here and not chase some of these rallies especially for stocks that are looking for you know lower discount rates so yeah they didn't exactly sound all that celebratory what do you guys think I definitely know a lot of folks here in the United States who have been pretty much feeling the pinch in our wallets from higher prices on everything from groceries to finding a place to live some of my friends say it's just a never-ending cycle of disappointment never gets any better prices go up but salaries they stay low like always bottom line this is not the American dream that everybody thinks hit the like button if you guys agree the labor department just dropped some serious numbers turns out that the Consumer Price Index which measures inflation went up by only three percent annually in June and it's the slowest rise since March of 2021 but I don't know guys I'm still not feeling too certain about this you see this isn't just some numbers game this actually has a major impact on decisions that are made by the fed and all those other big shots who actually run the financial show decisions that can Ripple down to us working class Americans I mean think about home buyers trying to get a deal or seniors trying to make ends meet these new inflationary figures they're definitely something policy makers are going to be using to make calls that could mess with our budgets later on this year the Federal Reserve you know the guys who basically control the interest rates they're keeping a very close eye on the Consumer Price Index and they're also looking at another measure the personal consumption expenditures price index which usually shows lower numbers than the CPI but here's the real kicker guys even though both of these indices are showing inflation slowing down it's still running hot better than the federal reserve's ideal Target of the two percent that they're trying to hit and so especially their core inflation which takes out the price swings of food and fuel last month core inflation shot up by a whopping 4.8 percent more than double what the FED wants experts at Fitch ratings say that even though things are getting better we're still looking at core inflation sitting around five percent when you look at the big picture and that's way too high for Comfort they say the job market looks good but the way I see it they're adding more part-time jobs while losing the full-time jobs inflation data may be low but they don't expect the FED to declare mission accomplished yet history has shown that inflation is stubborn and can last longer than expected when it becomes elevated and entrenched and the current round is still making an impact on consumers I mean the CPI has risen nearly 19 since bottoming in April 2020 during the early days of the c19 pandemic now as experts pointed out we could feel pretty confident that inflation is moving in the right direction but we really shouldn't be overly confident so for example housing related costs which make up about a third of the inflationary index weighing are dropping they're also showing signs that wage gains are slowing down then there's the employment cost index which tracks the changes in the cost of labor for employers encompassing wages salaries and benefits over time now this is another very key inflationary measure and it showed a 4.6 percent increase in the second quarter which is down from an all-time peak of 5.7 from the previous period in 2022. now much of the inflationary surge that began in 2021 was caused by clogged up Supply chains y'all remember that ports factories and Freight yards they were overwhelmed by the explosive economic rebound from the pandemic recession of 2020. the result was delays Parts shortages and higher prices but supply chain backlogs have eased in the past year sharply reducing upward pressure on Goods prices of long-lasting manufactured goods actually dipped in June but there are still dangerous signs health Insurance costs for instance they're expected to start climbing now that a statistical adjustment for the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses expires and that adjustment has caused the health insurance component of the CPI to show a 24.9 slide over the past year that now should reverse also gas prices have soared this summer as the cost of U.S crew jumped nearly 16 percent in July a gallon of regular unleaded gas now costs 3.82 cents a gallon on the national average which actually up more than eight percent or close to 30 cents a gallon from the same time in July according to AAA they're also facing a daunting problem here inflationary pressures and service businesses restaurants hotels entertainment venues and the like where wages represent a substantial share of the costs worker shortages have led many of these service companies to sharply raise pay just recently for example the labor department reported that the average hourly wage Rose 4.4 percent July from a year earlier more than expected now to cover their High labor costs companies have typically raised their prices thereby fueling inflation it's kind of like a short-term win for the employees but then prices catch up and then you back to square one these are all going to be factors that the FED is going to be considering in their next possible rate hike meeting next month but they're saying that the bar for lowering rates though it's high because inflation is not benign and and still above their target they'll probably wait until they're absolutely sure that inflation is going to be getting back down to the Target before they actually consider cutting rates whichever way this goes I definitely recommend subscribing to the channel and make sure you guys hit that notification Bell it looks like some pretty big developments are in the pipeline you don't want to miss any of those updates so make sure you guys subscribe and drop a like for the video appreciate that but sure inflation is coming down but it may not be falling fast enough to satisfy the Federal Reserve some economists are forecasting that the central bank will boost interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point at the next meeting now if the FED raises rates again consumers could face even higher borrowing costs credit card aprs already at a historic high and mortgage rates could continue to rise If the Fed boosts rates because these types of debts they tend to move in tandem with the underlying fed funds rate now for our social security fam SSI SSDI will this impact your Social Security benefits well yes because Social Security benefits are adjusted annually for inflation and the Social Security Administration the SSA they're basing its cost of living adjustment the cola on the inflation data from July from August and from September meanwhile you got CPI data for the last three months or for those three months it's not available yet and some forecasters are already projecting their estimates for the 2024 Cola based on inflationary Trends so far this year now with prices cooling they're predicting that the nation's seniors will see a much smaller boost next year now according to the senior citizens League the cola could be three percent next year another group that's the think tank committee for responsible federal budget and it says Social Security beneficiaries will receive a cola of 2.6 to 3.3 percent depending upon where inflation Falls after next month now a few products and services are still seeing relatively high price increases so you got housing inflation remainings you know a pretty major concern for a lot of Americans and it's one of the largest contributors to the rise in prices but economists they expect the housing prices will begin to dip later in the year helped by new construction rents have been coming down in certain places where new rental construction has been coming online more Supply even with steady or Rising demand lowers costs prices are falling in a lot of these major spending categories energy costs they saw the biggest drop gasoline is about 27 percent cheaper than it was a year earlier according to the labor data shows used car prices they're also lower with a 5.2 percent dip last month meanwhile you got airline fares they've plunged about 19 percent now on the grocery front some items are actually pulling back from their pandemic price gains eggs dropped almost eight percent this is after their ridiculous surge in egg prices earlier this year that pretty much stunned some consumers and prompted a lot of people to raise their own backyard chickens you guys remember that right people were raising their own chickens in their backyard and everything other grocery items with price Cuts include pork bacon and butter now the hope is that the slowdown in inflation will buy investors time and give them the opportunity to catch the breath by the way if you own a home make sure your home is protected get your free home warranty quote there is a link in the description down below this video now a lot of the critics and the Hawks though they're not exactly sold on the idea that the current Fed rate hiking spree which kicked off in March of 2022 and has seen 11 increases totaling 5.25 percentage points should come to a screeching halt just yet now the key word for them vigilance as the FED would basically maintain their vigilance against inflation all while refraining from prematurely patting themselves on the back with a mission accomplished y'all know what I mean right now on the macro scale these rate hikes they seem to have pretty much Jive very well with the economy after a slump in the first half of 2022 GDP has managed to stay positive in territory and it's showing a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the third quarter but let's not forget that despite the seemingly Rosy numbers regular folks in the United States are not exactly giving the economy a standing ovation President Joe Biden's approval rating is still laying very low at 39 percent and a major reason behind this could be the pinch of high inflation and rate hikes that's really being felt in our everyday lives and this hidden small business is pretty hard and adding weight to household debt burdens especially the small business sector they're really feeling the heat as credit card interest rates are outpacing the central bank's key interest rate and this is far from good news for businesses that rely very heavily on credit for their growth and for Innovative interest I mean it's just a matter of fact like when rates rise so do the number of businesses struggling and keep up with their loan repayments and this situation could put a major dent in the small business landscape potentially forcing some to close up shop default on loans bankruptcy you name it now looking at the brighter side if the data does keep cooperating the FED actually might consider easing off the throttle of their monetary policy moves at least that's what some experts are starting to voice out now whether the FED indeed does decide to stop will depend on data points like the CPI reading that we talked about earlier breaking down the report and the state of inflation could end up being more about the details than what the headline numbers say the shelter and Health Care components will be closely watched as will energy and food as always Trends and things such as core Services also will get attention as will more granular items like appliances so for example Bank of America noted that real-time data is showing that retailers are cutting prices across categories for large appliances the bank's gauge of prices for the category is down five percent so far this year possibly pointing to a broader trend of softening inflation markets though they're still a little nervous a bond market measure of inflation pricing known as a forward rate it's pointing to a one-year rate of 4.83 after falling below four percent May and for businesses and consumers that could be trouble credit card debt in the second quarter surpass one trillion dollars for the first time and some industry insiders expect small business debt default rates to escalate as interest rates stay high they call it a pipeline full of growing delinquencies that showing no abatement by the way if you guys made it this far on the video drop a like for the video also subscribe to the channel check out my previous videos and I'm Gonna Catch You guys on the next one